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Thread: Round 4 Trades

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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Round 4 Trades

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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    The resounding response echos my personal position
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Dunkley is probably my biggest problem at the moment, started well on the weekend, putting up 38 dt in the first quarter but the following quarter scores of 17, 12, 18 saw him drop right off. He managed to kick 2 goals which also helped boost his score up from just 16 touches.

    Like 85 DT from 16 touches is pretty strong yet that's the problem, he's not finding enough of the ball right now. From the 3 games he's averaging just 18 touches, if he could put together some of his best games then he'd be borderline at the moment. Rd 1 saw him go without a mark but had 7 tackles with 20 touches. Rd 2 saw a bit of a middle with 2 marks, 4 tackles to go with 18 touches. On the weekend his marks rose to 6, had 2 goals but just 16 touches and only 2 tackles. Biggest con is he attended just 6 centre bounces which was 5th in line behind the likes of Macrae, Bont, Libba and Wallis and this is where the issue remains. He needs one of them to drop out to give him a proper boost and the first 3 won't happen without injury. I'm not entirely sure why Wallis is getting in ahead of Dunkley given Wallis is pretty good up forward but he must bring another dynamic to the midfield that Dunkley doesn't.

    I believe Bont hurt his knee somewhat on the weekend? With a 5 day turn around, do wonder if he gets up for the game. If he doesn't, might be enough to tempt me to go around again.

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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Marshall is pretty tempting as a forward prospect right now, would free up 140k which would be pretty well used elsewhere down the track and after 2 games has an average of 112.5 DT, hard to ignore. I think realistically, this drops around the 90-95 average which is what we've seen most solo rucks put up in recent years although I do feel like it's worth keeping in mind that ruck scores in general appear to be down this year with just 5 listed ruckman averaging over 80 DT (that have played all 3 games), all of whom are averaging 93+. If his average drops to that number it's still a win and a premium forward although there is upside he surpasses that, just trying to keep a more modest expectation.

    The other option here is Rozee I suppose who was in contention for my side until Ridley was a late in. With the 121 on the weekend, he rose a massive 93k which you'd think means you've missed out given he started at a premium however he's expected to rise another 80.8k this week (projected score of 88 though) and will have another big rise to come yet with that 121 in his system for another week after. At 323k, he frees up plenty of cash to be used elsewhere now or later on.

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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Brodie Smith is still Brodie Smith unfortunately. He basically hasn't gained much with the kick in rule, I dare say because Adelaide's inability to actually use it to their advantage more than anything. He hasn't been that flash from what I've seen of him in the first 3 rounds, his tackling is pretty damn poor which is rather frustrating to see. Either way, pretty much happy to call that he won't reach premium status and will need to be moved on, just a matter of when. I don't see Zac Williams being any different from a DT pov either imo.

    His expected price rise is 31.2k if he can put up a score of 80 which is probably about what we can expect of him so he's still got another rise or two in him however if other options present themselves, I'm not against going early on him. Lloyd and Whitfield are the standouts here, averaging 124/134 DT however I don't think I can justify paying the price they're currently at at 756k and 765k. Lloyd's projected score of 110 sees him only rise 10k, Whitfield has that 162 in his system for a while longer yet but either way, they're one average score of falling again so I think I'm more inclined to just sit it out until then and look at other options for the time being.

    Laird has dropped 40k and will have at least a couple more price drops more likely so I already like him more as an early upgrade ahead of the other two due to affordability. Simpson has dropped 54k with a 3 round average of 68. Suppose at this stage I'll just be tracking to make sure he hasn't gone over the hump at his age but we all know what he's capable of in the right situation.

    As I keep talking about Crows, Milera is one I've mentioned a few times this pre season, one I selected in my SC and one worth considering in DT. After 3 rounds he's averaging 92.7 which sees him ranked 7th in terms of total points scored. What I find most appealing about him so far is he's being very consistent with scores of 87, 95 and 96. Funnily enough, the 87 came off of 26 touches with the other two games having had 22 and 21 touches. His tackles have really helped his score with 10 against Geelong and 5 against Sydney (2 against Hawks in rd 1). Going back to last year, he was moved to HBF towards the end of the year, fanfooty has him off HBF in round 18 and from that time, he averaged 90.5 so in a sense, he's just continued from there off the back of a big pre season. I think the other thing that makes him one worth considering for me is he's actually been good for Adelaide. He's a really nice kick, is willing to take on the opposition and break lines by using his ability to dance in traffic and really has just shown composure. My biggest knock on him so far is he fumbles the ball a bit before finally gathering it, once he's got it in his hands he's really rather impressive to watch but boy has he given me the shits a few times with his fumbly hands. Only expected to rise 11k this week and 9k next week so really he's not much of a bargain buy at this point which kind of undoes the above as it's almost better to just watch how Adelaide work out their backline for a few more weeks first.

    Rozee is probably another option here but that 80k price rise moves more to 50k when you take out Smith's expected change and it's still relying on Rozee putting up an 88 which I think is unrealistic.

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    FFC Football Operations Manager Nothing's Avatar
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Marshall scored OK in a few games last year. I've had him in Legacy and he has been good. Put up a few middling scores as ruck/forward towards the end. If he can hold down the ruck role he will be a very good option.

    I'm looking at him in SC but not DT, mainly due to his respective prices.

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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Worth noting with Williams and Smith is that they both have ideal byes to hold until so unless they turn crap and start losing cash or not scoring to their price then no real reason to move early.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    I'm warming to Rozee even though he's had one price rise already.

    R1: 69DT/67SC from 75% TOG
    R2: 75DT/85SC from 84% TOG
    R3: 121DT/116SC from 82% TOG

    I like that he plays decent TOG (actually, looking at all 3 Port games, they had players injured early in Rounds 2/3 resulting in larger TOG for all the rookies hmmmmm)

    Nice that he has that big Round 3 score for two more price cycles.
    I'm also tempted too because Richmond are leaking heaps of points atm and just lost Dusty/Cotch too
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Just on Smith, as N29 pointed out in my team thread, Adelaide has got a pretty good draw coming up so it might be worth hanging in there. The biggest issue for me (and it's affecting Laird too) is Milera. He's the best of those three at the moment and has looked so classy so far this year. He's an even better pick in SC, I agree with @dylan123 . His movement through traffic and line breaking has been sublime but his contested ball and clearance work has also been a highlight.
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    On Marshall, his heat maps suggest a majority of possessions in the back half and he's yet to hit the scoreboard so he's playing that defensive ruck role.

    The real test for him comes in the next two weeks v McEvoy and Gawn. He's averaged 30 HOs in those first two games. I'm not sure how many were HOTA but if you assume 25%, that's roughly 38 points a game. He's not going to get that against those those two.

    He's a great "roll of the dice" pick if he can keep his current role. That's the big if.
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheedus View Post
    On Marshall, his heat maps suggest a majority of possessions in the back half and he's yet to hit the scoreboard so he's playing that defensive ruck role.

    The real test for him comes in the next two weeks v McEvoy and Gawn. He's averaged 30 HOs in those first two games. I'm not sure how many were HOTA but if you assume 25%, that's roughly 38 points a game. He's not going to get that against those those two.

    He's a great "roll of the dice" pick if he can keep his current role. That's the big if.
    Saints on the weekend flooded their backline. Whether by design (I think so) or pressure (did you see Freo???) most players had spent a lot of time in their backline. The team map makes for some interesting viewing.

    He was playing mostly onball ruck and was decent. Albeit against a lesser quality ruck. His around the ground work and follow efforts were excellent. In a different league but the comparison to Stef is there.

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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Heads up, Gawn and Grundy play pretty early, so I would suggest putting Gawn as E straight away so you can C your ruckman (assuming it's not Clarke/Sweet)
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Just on Darling, it is tough one - Allen has effected his scoring I think but with his next 2 at home v Freo & Port I am inclined to hold.

    He had 2 injury effected games (both early on) at Optus last year. Here are the rest of his SC scores when he played a full game :-

    89
    90
    120
    112
    132
    181
    93
    95
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Quote Originally Posted by Bunga View Post
    Just on Darling, it is tough one - Allen has effected his scoring I think but with his next 2 at home v Freo & Port I am inclined to hold.

    He had 2 injury effected games (both early on) at Optus last year. Here are the rest of his SC scores when he played a full game :-

    89
    90
    120
    112
    132
    181
    93
    95
    Here's his last 10 games not at Optus:
    112
    42
    81
    68
    62
    39
    110
    80
    75
    50

    So, his scoring in round 1 and 3 were almost expected tbh.
    This post was more than likely SC based.
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Yuck. Itís going to be too much of a roller coaster with him. Gone!
    Zach Tuohy my boy for 2017!

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