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Thread: Round 3 Trades

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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Round 3 Trades

    Have at it.


    Heeney, Dunkley and Witherden my biggest concerns in DT.

    Dunkley almost worse than Heeney as Dogs just have a deep midfield that he can't seem to break into, or at least enough to get what's required to make him a premium. Think Heeney is a close second due to the fact he's more capable of putting up premium numbers even if he doesn't get the added midfield minutes I was hoping for. Witherden was a last minute buy in and he's falling short so far and I think he'll be like this all year, capable of putting a few good scores up but he'll fall just short.

    Kelly is the obvious option that I'm missing (since I have Boak). Worpel, Newnes and Dahlhaus are the cheaper options if I want to go a little risky.

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    Re: Round 3 Trades

    Similar spot up forward in DT with Mundy. Already have Boak, Worpel, Newnes, Billings, meaning Drew has been on the bench both weeks. Thinking Mundy down to Parker is a real option, allowing Drew to start and then using the money, perhaps turning a mid rookie (Atkins?) into a premium or Pierce/English into a top ruck (have Grundy). Other options is sideways Mundy to Kelly, avoid Parker and keep Drew on the bench.

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    Re: Round 3 Trades

    Jacobs, Witherden and GHS my issues in DT.
    Happy to hold witherden though, need to find someone for GHS I think

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    Re: Round 3 Trades

    3 DT posts in a row? Whats going on??

    My issues in SC are Ridley and Hore. Could trade one up and one down, grabbing Collins and Rozee. Rozee would give me the D/F link player with Moore which is handy. Other option would be to swing Moore back and trade Ridley to McCarthy (has looked great, continued on JLT form), but that does leave me many options for Hore. Maybe Burgess, and just rely on trade a forward to a back later on, creating the B/F link.
    Only ever talking SC

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    Round 3 Trades

    In RDT, first trade is a no brainer - Hore to Duursma. Second trade Iím considering is Dunkley to Worpel or Boak.

    Leaning toward Worpel as heís cheaper and Iím skeptical that Boak can sustain this kind of scoring. Before this season, him scoring triple digits has been a rare occurrence. With Wines coming back, does his scoring drop back to usual? Has never averaged over 100 in DT and his last three seasons have sat at around 90ppg.
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    Super Moderator divvydan's Avatar
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    Re: Round 3 Trades

    Steven May has been ruled out of round three with a groin injury.

    https://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/...h-groin-injury

    “Steven experienced some pain in his groin during the game against Geelong and as a result, wasn’t able to finish the match,” Mahoney told Melbourne Media.

    May went in for scans on Monday afternoon, but the club will be awaiting further results before determining how long he will be sidelined with the injury.

    “Steven has pulled up a bit sore from the game, so it has been decided that he won’t be available for selection this week,” Mahoney said.

    “Given the tight time frame, we want to see how that groin settles, so we will give it some time before making an informed decision over the course of the week.”

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    Moderator Notorious_29's Avatar
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    Re: Round 3 Trades

    Could be an opening for Hore..

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    Re: Round 3 Trades

    I for once have no major holes in my team. Only hore an issue, not sure there is much to move him to so might just sit a week

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    Re: Round 3 Trades

    If Hore can't get back in after that effort defensively, with May out, then it's probably time to move him on, imo. If he's back, problem solvered.

    On Heeney, this is his heatmap:



    Worth a few comments... it's almost identical to Parker, who also spent way too much time out of the midfield. It's also similar but slightly more midfield than Ronke, Franklin and Blakey, who were all permanent forwards. IE. thanks to Sydney's style, that's about what the HFF/FP types look like, it's more midfield than them but compared to Clarke, Kennedy, Cunningham, Sinclair and Jones it was a lot more forward than those and a lot less genuine midfield (wing rather than the guts). Papley's is weird in that it was basically the opposite side of the field to everyone else or pure midfield, basically he's getting centre clearances and then pushing forward.

    The other takeaway is that with this role I think it's clear the ankle is having some impact, there was a comment that it's certainly still bothering him I saw on twitter that I believe was a Horse quote.

    I think I'm leaning trade basically.
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    Super Moderator divvydan's Avatar
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    Re: Round 3 Trades

    Port news:

    Amon expected to miss around 6 weeks, Watts to miss most/all season. Wines likely to be available and come straight into the side. Only thing that might stop Wines playing is the fact that it's in Brisbane.

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    Re: Round 3 Trades

    Quote Originally Posted by divvydan View Post
    Similar spot up forward in DT with Mundy. Already have Boak, Worpel, Newnes, Billings, meaning Drew has been on the bench both weeks. Thinking Mundy down to Parker is a real option, allowing Drew to start and then using the money, perhaps turning a mid rookie (Atkins?) into a premium or Pierce/English into a top ruck (have Grundy). Other options is sideways Mundy to Kelly, avoid Parker and keep Drew on the bench.
    I'd be going the Kelly or ruck option.

    Kelly looks pretty safe in this format so far. I suppose if I was to try counter him, from the 23 games he played last season, he only had 4 with 30+ touches whilst he's gone 31 and 30 in his first two games so it's just a matter of whether he can maintain ~30 touches a game. Gets a few marks and tackles per game along with being a goal threat which should help see him be a pretty consistent scorer I feel. Ablett rolling out should see an opening to fill the disposal gap that he leaves but there are plenty of options at Geelong which I do find to be a bit of a worry. Also, at what point does he get a tag? Danger and Selwood are pretty hard to stop, is Kelly easier to stop then those two?

    I think the rucks are what needs the love the most in your side if that's what you've got on the field and Drew is a better F6 then whatever anyone else will be going with.

    Midfield premiums are great and I'd also love another but I'm not sure Atkins is worth trading to get another I can see why it would be considered.

    Quote Originally Posted by twarby View Post
    Jacobs, Witherden and GHS my issues in DT.
    Happy to hold witherden though, need to find someone for GHS I think

    Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
    I think out of those 3, Witherden is safe. I think Jacobs needs to go, copped a knock on the weekend and wouldn't be surprised if he's rested. Really not playing that great imo. To counter that slightly, Gawn/Grundy look like they're set for a 30-40k price drop I think so it would be interesting to see who will fall more out of Jacobs and those two as there aren't really any sideways trades unless you want to go Marshall - however I think if you're burning trades in the rucks, it's to get the right set up now.

    GHS isn't worth it for mine, plenty of cheap mids that are performing that you can jump on or you can go low to fund a Jacobs upgrade.

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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Round 3 Trades

    Quote Originally Posted by Wogitalia View Post
    If Hore can't get back in after that effort defensively, with May out, then it's probably time to move him on, imo. If he's back, problem solvered.

    On Heeney, this is his heatmap:

    Worth a few comments... it's almost identical to Parker, who also spent way too much time out of the midfield. It's also similar but slightly more midfield than Ronke, Franklin and Blakey, who were all permanent forwards. IE. thanks to Sydney's style, that's about what the HFF/FP types look like, it's more midfield than them but compared to Clarke, Kennedy, Cunningham, Sinclair and Jones it was a lot more forward than those and a lot less genuine midfield (wing rather than the guts). Papley's is weird in that it was basically the opposite side of the field to everyone else or pure midfield, basically he's getting centre clearances and then pushing forward.

    The other takeaway is that with this role I think it's clear the ankle is having some impact, there was a comment that it's certainly still bothering him I saw on twitter that I believe was a Horse quote.

    I think I'm leaning trade basically.
    I feel like we're just constantly making excuses for Heeney's lack of midfield minutes where it might just be that he's not as good in the midfield as he is in the forward or they rate the other midfielders higher.

    Like I'm sure the ankle has probably added to it, just seems like a guy we've been waiting to get full midfield minutes for a few years now and it just hasn't happened yet.

    I am quite concerned so far however I suppose the thing for me is that those of us that picked him were hoping for a step up in those minutes which he hasn't got yet but how different is his role right now to what it was last year? I don't know as I didn't watch enough of Sydney to know but if it isn't much different, he averaged premium numbers last year in both formats so is he worth just sticking with, we've taken some low ones and hope the high are right around the corner? Take out his injury game last year and he averaged 94.35/101.45 DT/SC. The year before he went 92.1/97.5 so he's basically put two strong years together (although looking at his 2017 closely, started on fire and dropped right off) and that's with minimal pre seasons. He's had a full one now, if the ankle is taking a little longer to get over, we should surely get that in the next week or two and he should return to what he's done for the past couple of years and that is a premium.

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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Round 3 Trades

    So as mentioned in the OP, Heeney and Dunkley are the two I'm questioning right now.

    I've got Dunkley in both comps however his scores are far more SC friendly than DT so far even though neither are what we'd like from those that picked him. Rd 1 he went 79/98 and rd 2 he went 68/76 so at least from an SC POV, he's put up one decent game.

    From these two games he's had 20 and 18 touches, just 2 marks which came last week, averaging 5.5 tackles and kicked just the 1 point.

    So looking at what Dunkley did last year, he was from round 15 onwards where he turned into a different beast. Figured breaking down the stats might help compare to what he's doing now to see where he sits which I'll find out in a second -

    2018 Rd 1-14 Rd 15-23 Average
    Kick 8.7 11.7 10.15
    Handball 7 17 11.73
    Disposal 15.7 28.7 21.89
    Mark 5 4.78 4.89
    Tackle 5.3 6.66 5.94
    Clearance 1.3 4.11 2.63
    Contested Possession 5.5 11 8.1
    Uncontested Possession 10.4 17.4 13.7
    Goal .7 .44 .58
    Behind .9 .66 .79
    DT 80.8 112.4 95.7
    SC 76.5 115.7 95.1

    Compared to his 2019 numbers -

    2019 Average
    Kick 9
    Handball 10
    Disposal 19
    Mark 1
    Tackle 5.5
    Clearance 1.5
    Contested Possession 7.5
    Uncontested Possession 12.5
    Goal 0
    Behind .5
    DT 73.5
    SC 87


    Looking at those numbers, he's certainly declined more to what he was doing in the first half of 2018. That said, disposals have risen 3.2 a game from a small sample size which from a DT pov, should be enough to get him towards a low end keeper if those 3 were just handballs and nothing more however his average is 6.5 points down from last years first half. This comes down to marks, he's gone from averaging 5 to just 1 currently which is 12 points a game. Again, this just makes him a bottom end keeper which isn't what anyone paid for when they brought him at a 95.7/95.1 average.

    I haven't seen any heat maps but from what I've seen when watching, I haven't seen him in the centre at all. I've seen him up the ground and around stoppages from time to time however I'm guessing he's just getting bursts now compared to when he got a full time run in the second half of last year. This is probably a Libba factor but also Bont who seems to actually be playing stronger midfield minutes compared to last year where he spent a lot of time fwd. Like in my mind, 2018 was all without Libba so I'm not sure what changed last year that saw him get a proper run in the middle, Macrae missed some but they certainly played together. Also whether he's any chance to get proper minutes in there without injury or if that's unlikely.

    In the second HLT game he had 29 touches, 4 marks, 8 tackles for a 119/107 score which is why those that picked him would have locked him in. This was with Hunter, Macrae, Wallis, Bont and Libba all playing so it's not as if he just got that step up as one of them were resting.

    I want to back him in as even without those big minutes, he's not far off it and if he gets them every few games, he can score well and put up strong numbers. On the flip side, I don't like his current position fantasy wise and I paid premium for him whilst the money I could potentially get but moving him on could be quite useful elsewhere in my side.

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Round 3 Trades

    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    I'd be going the Kelly or ruck option.

    Kelly looks pretty safe in this format so far. I suppose if I was to try counter him, from the 23 games he played last season, he only had 4 with 30+ touches whilst he's gone 31 and 30 in his first two games so it's just a matter of whether he can maintain ~30 touches a game. Gets a few marks and tackles per game along with being a goal threat which should help see him be a pretty consistent scorer I feel. Ablett rolling out should see an opening to fill the disposal gap that he leaves but there are plenty of options at Geelong which I do find to be a bit of a worry. Also, at what point does he get a tag? Danger and Selwood are pretty hard to stop, is Kelly easier to stop then those two?

    I think the rucks are what needs the love the most in your side if that's what you've got on the field and Drew is a better F6 then whatever anyone else will be going with.

    Midfield premiums are great and I'd also love another but I'm not sure Atkins is worth trading to get another I can see why it would be considered.



    I think out of those 3, Witherden is safe. I think Jacobs needs to go, copped a knock on the weekend and wouldn't be surprised if he's rested. Really not playing that great imo. To counter that slightly, Gawn/Grundy look like they're set for a 30-40k price drop I think so it would be interesting to see who will fall more out of Jacobs and those two as there aren't really any sideways trades unless you want to go Marshall - however I think if you're burning trades in the rucks, it's to get the right set up now.

    GHS isn't worth it for mine, plenty of cheap mids that are performing that you can jump on or you can go low to fund a Jacobs upgrade.
    FWIW Marshall is a FWD so not a solution to the ruck problem anyway



    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    I feel like we're just constantly making excuses for Heeney's lack of midfield minutes where it might just be that he's not as good in the midfield as he is in the forward or they rate the other midfielders higher.

    Like I'm sure the ankle has probably added to it, just seems like a guy we've been waiting to get full midfield minutes for a few years now and it just hasn't happened yet.

    I am quite concerned so far however I suppose the thing for me is that those of us that picked him were hoping for a step up in those minutes which he hasn't got yet but how different is his role right now to what it was last year? I don't know as I didn't watch enough of Sydney to know but if it isn't much different, he averaged premium numbers last year in both formats so is he worth just sticking with, we've taken some low ones and hope the high are right around the corner? Take out his injury game last year and he averaged 94.35/101.45 DT/SC. The year before he went 92.1/97.5 so he's basically put two strong years together (although looking at his 2017 closely, started on fire and dropped right off) and that's with minimal pre seasons. He's had a full one now, if the ankle is taking a little longer to get over, we should surely get that in the next week or two and he should return to what he's done for the past couple of years and that is a premium.
    He dominated the 2nd quarter, shockingly when the Swans also dominated, before going back to purgatory. He's clearly our best midfielder, it's not even close at this point with Parker suffering the same purgatory treatment.

    It really is as simple as his coach being a total ****wit, he's been doing it for years but seems to be getting worse as he plays his "pets" in the midfield instead of the best players.

    His role has been a bit worse, last year he was playing as a midfielder mostly and a forward for stints, this year is the reverse and his midfield time has been on the wing rather than clearances for the most part.

    I think the ankle is a genuine factor as his role was strong in the preseason and he did look set, fwiw, basically everything else from JLT positionally has followed into the season.

    Horse is very much of the "You're an above average forward and we haven't got those so we'll play you there" school of coaching and he's getting worse. Basically Parker and Heeney are now forwards with midfield stints because they're slightly better forwards than some of the kids would be instead. Even though they're both way better as midfeilders pushing forward than they are as forwards Horse seems to prefer to get them unfavourable matchups up forward instead of favourable midfield mismatches. Say we're playing Adelaide, Heeney against Smith or Brown for example is a much worse matchup than Heeney against one of the Crouch brothers. The problem is that Horse would rather Heeney and Parker as B- type forwards instead of A+ type midfielders so that he can play guys like Hewett, Clarke and Cunningham in the midfield despite them being C to F level midfielders, Hewett is a C midfielder or forward, for the slight downgrade of him up forward we're having the massive downgrade. Clarke and Cunningham have basically proven they're not AFL players over the past 5 years but Horse loves them and is trying to force them into round holes...

    So yeah, shitty coaching and a possible injury are not a good combination for me. Alas, it's taken two rounds to reinforce that lesson once again, one I feel I find a way to learn every year.


    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    Dunkley
    This one is easy, Libba has pushed everyone down and so far this year Wallis has been ahead of Dunkley as well. Will be games where Dunkley is the hot hand but that trio with McLean is just tough to all get enough.
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    Re: Round 3 Trades

    Mundy's TOG has been low and scores have been woeful- must be carrying an injury. Boak's the obvious replacement although Wines back is slightly concerning
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