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Thread: JLT Series 2019

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    FFC Football Operations Manager Nothing's Avatar
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Nothing View Post
    I traded him in. Ruined my year that year in DT. Was in with a shot and traded him in during R12, he posted a 78 that round and was abysmal for the rest of the year. Culminated in a final round 38 to see me plummet out of the prize money.

    **** Roberton.
    I also lost my mates league after going undefeated all year.

    **** Roberton.

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    Super Moderator divvydan's Avatar
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    Do love the Wogi post game posts, plenty to read through.


    On some of the players recently mentioned:

    Roberton - One that probably hasn't had much consideration and one that I find really hard to gauge properly. He's basically had 2 seasons where you'd be semi happy/happy with his numbers. 2015 he averages 82.8/90.5 and in 2017 he went 90.2/92.5. Even his 2017 is hard to get a good read off because his first half of the year was great, he averaged 102.8/104 (from 12 games) and in the second half of the season his average dropped to 75.2/78.7 (10 games). Anyone really recall what the huge difference between the two half of the seasons were? At his price, he's cheaper than Brodie Smith in RDT, given Brodie Smith's best average is 82.1 in RDT, he's probably a stronger option there even though Smith should benefit quite a bit from these new rules.
    .
    Probably more to it than just this but Savage was a big blow to Roberton's scoring back in 2017. Without Savage in the team, Roberton averaged 100.7DT/103.2SC and with Savage it was 83.1DT/83.7SC. I also suspect that Savage's role at AFL level changed during the course of that year. Savage played rds 1-3 but only averaged 52DT/65SC and was then dropped. Played 1 game in Rd 10 for 69/77, then dropped again, before finally coming back in Round 16 and averaging 91.6DT/100.3SC.

    There wasn't much change in St.Kilda's overall DT/SC during that time, which suggests Savage's role changed during the last third of the season. In terms of what that means now is less clear since Montagna retired at the end of 2017, which in theory changes the dynamic down back and potentially everyone's roles.

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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Swans vs Giants

    General -
    Pretty solid hitout this one. Both teams a bit more physical and the game was more contested in general, looked more like footy and less like circle work that some of the other games have resembled. Game got very dewy in the 4th quarter and it kind of degenerated into wet weather in that a lot of marks dropped and very sloppy but didn't have any real intensity. Was basically an even game after the first 20 minutes when the Giants dominated.

    Rules - Again, nothing of note, kick-ins seemed more shared than last year, especially given these two teams both had dominant kick takers but Shaw still took plenty, Lloyd looked to have settled into the Laird receiver of short kick role more to me. 666 both teams went vanilla and let the AFL have its openness with no moving of wingmen or players rushing in off back/forward 50s to congest.

    Giants - Were the better side, especially early. Had a lot of their stars out so a bit hard to read into much as far as positions, absolutely jumped the Swans and then basically held them off all game without attacking nearly as much. Had some really nice moments of ball movement.

    Coniglio - Pure midfield role. Proven he can do this sort of thing and he's a genuine smoky pick this year for those wanting a more unique pick, at this point his durability is better than Kelly also if picking between them.

    Taranto - Also a pretty pure midfield role, unlike Coniglio he obviously gets pushed down noticeably by Kelly returning and possibly Hopper given he's basically a pure midfielder while Taranto is more versatile. Mid only makes him a hard sell but I'd think this role is likely to continue personally and he's capable of comparable scoring.

    Shaw - Stock standard, nothing of note, took many kick-ins especially after Williams went forward but still shared a bit. Plenty of waxing in the 2nd half which he benefited from. Would expect him to be similar to last year... note Williams though.

    Cameron - Working really hard up and down the ground, got a lot of his points around the defensive 50 as a leadup target. Genuinely think this could be his role this year and looks really fit after last years injuries. Reckon he's a really sneaky premium chance and a great draft prospect.

    Whitfield - Really struggled to pick up his positioning, think the official term is all over the shop. Seemed to play HFF in the first quarter, seemed to play wingish in the 2nd and 3rd and seemed to be HBF or wing floating back in the 4th. Still a decent hitout and looks fit. Nothing really changed here, would think in the proper stuff a few of the kids getting wing runs will go out and he'll step up.

    Caldwell - Looks really good. Reminds me of Taranto as a rookie, physically ready and just a hard nut who doesn't realise he's smaller than other guys. His role was excellent today, no doubt he goes out for Hopper and Kelly at the minimum so his role wont be as favourable but he spent plenty of time around the forward 50 and did some nice things. Will probably come down to whether the Giants go with the established low potential guys like Reid, De Boer and Lloyd or go with the obviously more dynamic and talented Caldwell. The way he tackled the bigger bodied Swans I think bodes very well for him forcing past those 3.

    Williams - This is the most noteworthy part of this write-up. He scored the majority of his points in the first quarter and a half (69 of his 80 DT) before he rolled an ankle, went off for a while and then came on and sat in a forward pocket for the rest of his game time, would guess that ~20% of his TOG was basically just helping rotations in the forward pocket so his score is an even lower TOG. Obviously the negative is he picked up a knock so hopefully doesn't carry it over into the season proper (haven't heard anything further). This obviously also has a strong influence on a few of the guys I'll comment on later. Williams took pretty much every kick-in while down back so important when trying to decipher Shaw's score.

    Perryman - Playing a wing/HFF role. One of the guys I mention regarding where Whitfield would settle at the end of the day. Given his price I don't think he's relevant personally.

    Hately - This is the x-factor, he played a pretty pure wing role with a few bursts on the ball and he looks physically ready. He looks quality and he thrust his hand up for round 1. Obviously lot of names out makes it hard but he was very solid and looks to have a thumping kick on him. SC ratio seemed fair to me.

    Deledio - Just waxed on the wing in the first half and then went home, was managed heavily. Not relevant other than his impact on other guys, probably plays when fit at the expense of guys like Caldwell and Hately who could otherwise be relevant.

    Ward - Only played a half give or take and looked fit. Role was midfield as expected so when he was in there he restored some reality.

    Cumming - Came on after Williams went forward in the 2nd half, looked good but not great for the JS as was the exact same role. Few names were out down back like Haynes (not expected for r1) and Tomlinson so would think he gets squeezed out but showed some nice things.

    Flynn - He actually did some really nice things, doubt he plays but he's a significantly better forward option than Simpson or Mumford if they did go the 2 ruck path. Given the durability of those two though he's not the worst r3 play if something happened.

    Swans - They got jumped early and never could close the gap despite some good bursts. Same issues of the past couple of seasons, no forward structure whatsoever, no discipline moving the ball forward, shocking ball skills and what must be a desire to operate in their defensive half. I50 were actually even but the Swans rarely had repeat 50 entries and had to work so much harder for their entries as well as the quality being significantly lower. The amount of times guys like Ronke or Papley were targeted 2 on 1 was quite simply shocking. Basically they look like they're still stuck playing how they did 7 years ago when they stole a flag with no desire or intention to move closer to the modern style.

    Heeney - Role was really solid, better balance of midfield time than last year, one of those games he could easily have scored 20+ more points if teammates could kick. Looks cherry ripe though and I've moved him closer to locked in.

    Lloyd - Same basic role but I didn't notice more than 1 or 2 kick-ins for him which is a worrying sign given how little can go wrong for him as a starting pick. Butchered it a bit but that's not normal so happy to put down as preseason jitters and an anomaly. Looks fit.

    Sinclair - Was actually really solid, still terrible in the ruck with an inability to win clear hitouts or hit to neutral zones consistently which allowed a lot of clear clearances for the Giants even when he won hitouts. Can't fault his workrate around the ground though, was far better in that element than Simpson. He's certainly an interesting case as a starting pick for those expecting a drop off from the top two and looking for a stop gap, 2nd year as a genuine ruck should see improvement at prime age, Naismith not due back for 6+ weeks it sounds and honestly while he's a better pure ruckman he's worse in every other facet so his JS should be safe.

    Cunningham - Still in the side, still makes terrible decisions, still butchers it when he doesn't and obviously still has compromising pictures of Horse. He seemed to start in defense before moving back to wasting an entire side of the ground on the wing as he's basically the most effective way to stop a forward movement. I just don't get it, I mean if he'd played 15 games and was still doing what he does, fair enough but he's at 100 now and yet on it goes.

    Mills - Really solid role, midfield and resting forward. Did seem to float back in Q4 a bit but think that was from the midfield rather than starting there. His ratio just highlights his quality, his hands are clean, his tackles are strong and his decisions are good. Sydney just can't afford to not play him through the guts. Very strong starting option, if he can score 100 from 18 touches and a low TOG imagine the potential with more TOG and more touches.

    Parker - Started forward and seemed to spend a lot of time there, no major surprise that the Swans were most effective in the middle with him there. Preseason so hard to read whether it's structural or not but given I basically expect the worse decision at this point with Horse, reckon it's a sign that we're going to get more Heeney in the midfield at the expense of Parker instead of guys like Hewett, Cunningham, Papley and whoever else basically not named Mills at this point (even Kennedy!).

    Kennedy - Epitome of going through the motions type game. Did go forward for a large portion of his TOG which given the ball never stayed there for long is really hard to score from. Looks fit enough but think his days are done as a genuine premium with the team needing Mills and Heeney to pass him for the dynamic and ball use portions of the game.

    Dawson - Was floating across half back and then on the wing for most of the game. One of those guys who can really punch a kick but needs to tighten up everything else, gets knocked off the ball too easily and misses too many tackles for mine which makes it hard to play him. Beautiful left foot though.

    Thurlow - Took a lot of kick-ins, he's a textbook Horse player in that almost every time he kicks it it is of the "how far can I kick it" school rather than "where is a teammate, let's kick it there". Could basically see Horse's boner everytime he thumped it to a 3 on 1 and turned it over though. McVeigh out will impact the back flanks but, for mine, he seems ahead of the other guys. Nick Smith is also out who would take a spot.

    Florent - On the wing basically all game. Swans game plan makes that a hard role to really score in as most of the time it was long to the 3 on 1 instead of short to the open Florent and given it's been basically a decade of that, I think we have to think that's structural and to be expected. Just such a tough role to score consistently with half the games at the SCG where that's even more of a factor.

    Clarke - Horse will love him, basically a slower version of Cunningham. Apparently he went at 55% DE which, quite frankly, is flattering. Is solid at winning the ball and does work hard into space but really that's not a good thing if you can't hit open targets. I'd hope he goes out but there are a few probably ahead of him for that honour. He's basically that guy you want dominating in the magoos to put pressure on the fringe players.

    O'Riordan - Also took a noticeable number of kick-ins. You can basically apply everything I wrote about Thurlow to him, he's pretty much just the Irish version. Will go as long as he can whether he's falling backwards or running full steam. Probably in a good battle with Thurlow and Fox for the final spot if there is an open one (personally I have Smith, Jones and McVeigh with Lloyd as the smalls and Rampe, Aliir/Melican and Grundy as the bigs).

    Hayward - When you're a rail thin flanker masquerading as a key position forward I'm sure it's just delightful to have it kicked to you high in a 3 on 1 against Davis consistently. Never stood a chance basically.

    Papley - Did a few nice things as a midfielder but as basically the only forward who applies pressure I'd much prefer him forward and Kennedy/Parker play more midfield minutes any day of the week.

    Blakey - He felt a lot better than his score and he'll certainly benefit from Buddy playing as Sam Reid gave basically nothing and often left him matched up with Davis which wasn't going to end well given he's basically 90% head and neck at this point physically (huge noggin on a giraffe neck) but god he moves well. Certainly a Charlie Curnow type in the way he moves at a similar size (lot of weight time to come though). Aliir did spend some time forward and did nothing and McCartin having some concussion issues put him at the head of the class for the 3rd tall role, imo. Much better at pressure and follow up efforts than Ronke, Rose and any of the other smalls already as well so not losing anything picking him over them.

    Ronke - It's almost like he's instructed to not put forward pressure on. Can do some special things in front of goal but he seriously needs to have his KPI be forward pressure because he's terrible at this which should be his primary role.
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by divvydan View Post
    Probably more to it than just this but Savage was a big blow to Roberton's scoring back in 2017. Without Savage in the team, Roberton averaged 100.7DT/103.2SC and with Savage it was 83.1DT/83.7SC. I also suspect that Savage's role at AFL level changed during the course of that year. Savage played rds 1-3 but only averaged 52DT/65SC and was then dropped. Played 1 game in Rd 10 for 69/77, then dropped again, before finally coming back in Round 16 and averaging 91.6DT/100.3SC.

    There wasn't much change in St.Kilda's overall DT/SC during that time, which suggests Savage's role changed during the last third of the season. In terms of what that means now is less clear since Montagna retired at the end of 2017, which in theory changes the dynamic down back and potentially everyone's roles.

    Carlisle also got more involved in the intercept role so he had Savage stealing the rebound and Carlisle take the intercept. Carlisle will miss a large chunk whatever the Saints do but Savage still a concern. Webster has more or less replaced Montagna like for like for what it's worth.
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  5. #35
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    Do love the Wogi post game posts, plenty to read through.


    On some of the players recently mentioned:

    Roberton - One that probably hasn't had much consideration and one that I find really hard to gauge properly. He's basically had 2 seasons where you'd be semi happy/happy with his numbers. 2015 he averages 82.8/90.5 and in 2017 he went 90.2/92.5. Even his 2017 is hard to get a good read off because his first half of the year was great, he averaged 102.8/104 (from 12 games) and in the second half of the season his average dropped to 75.2/78.7 (10 games). Anyone really recall what the huge difference between the two half of the seasons were? At his price, he's cheaper than Brodie Smith in RDT, given Brodie Smith's best average is 82.1 in RDT, he's probably a stronger option there even though Smith should benefit quite a bit from these new rules.

    Billings/Mundy/Walters are all forward ones I'm looking at. Billings I like due to his 2017 average and he really should be getting better with each season if he's in the right position. Mundy I loved last year but at 34 years (in July) feels like someone with minimal upside at his age and at best, will hold his current numbers (slightly more appealing in SC than DT?). But at that age there's every chance the decline will happen quickly, as will his durability disappear. Walters is similar to Billings in a sense that in the right position, he scores far better in fantasy. Two sides of the coin here but with Hogan/Lobb coming in, it means Freo now have some real forward targets ahead of Walters but at the same time, Walters is a far better forward compared to Billings and someone Freo would probably like to have in the forward line too. Still with Neale going out and guys like Mundy still getting a run, there really should be room for spots to be taken or overtaken.
    Mundy has big upside if he gets back a midfield role, I don't think the age is a major factor with him, he lost his speed about 5 years ago and has just become a bit more physical instead. The Neale opening, that Fyfe has spoken of Mundy filling, is a massive opportunity. I haven't got to that game yet but I really like him as a starting pick. Just needs a 4 point bump on last year and he's at 100 which is almost always premium level. Given that I personally expect most of the existing 100 guys to fall back this year, that's a big factor.

    Billings is a really interesting one, last year he got trapped forward in a really bad side but after he was dropped and the reserves coach did the obvious play him in the midfield thing and then Richo followed suit (because apparently that was a hard decision) he averaged 97/93 which was consistent with the prior year when he played a similar role (was more forward in 2017 but a better side and much higher). He's the opposite of Mundy in that he's probably a better DT than SC option but a lot started him last year thinking he could push higher than those 2017 averages, getting back in DT would do, SC he probably has to improve still. Did average 100/99.5 over the last 17 games of 2017 when he had a similar issue of getting trapped deep forward to start the season before they pushed him much higher so the potential is very high.

    Walters durability is his bigger concern for mine, for whatever reason he always gets hurt playing midfield and then gets stuck playing forward carrying something. With their early bye he's the kind I'm happy to let him prove it and then stupidly trade into him at that point instead. Especially given I like Mundy, Billings and Gresham more from that bye and also think Smith is a great target (just want to see the Shiel interaction there personally). Wingard and half the Dogs are also contenders for guys I want to see play a bit. Worpel also I guess. Don't think you can do more than 3 at most on that first bye.
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Just on the Saints v North, did anyone who watched the game notice Paul Ahern and what role he was playing? 87/92 from 56% TOG. 26 disp, 11 contested. Not a bad effort for just over half a game. Shockingly awkward price ($370k in SC), particularly given the other players available at or under that price (Libba, Miles) so probably more one to watch for draft leagues.
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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheedus View Post
    Just on the Saints v North, did anyone who watched the game notice Paul Ahern and what role he was playing? 87/92 from 56% TOG. 26 disp, 11 contested. Not a bad effort for just over half a game. Shockingly awkward price ($370k in SC), particularly given the other players available at or under that price (Libba, Miles) so probably more one to watch for draft leagues.

    Had a good role, inside midfield and then spreading where he felt like it, would imagine almost all of his scoring was between the arcs. I simply didn't mention him because his price is too awkward.

    Note that Cunnington was out and that I don't believe Ziebell played any midfield time and that Hall only played a half as well and I reckon there are probably enough concerns regarding job security to rule him out given he's right around the "need to be premium" level of pricing.
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    A few thoughts from the Gold Coast v Dogs game -

    Ainsworth - Didn't really notice him, but he finished with a good score. Could be a useful pick. The main issue is the amount of bodies they've got running through the midfield. Swallow, Fiorini, Miles, Miller, Weller, Martin, Bowes etc. I think he might be pigeon-holed forward at stages this season, so there are question marks there.

    Bowes - An enigma. Will do a couple of brilliant things in the space of a couple of minutes, then will go almost missing for the next 20. Reminds me a bit of Simon Black, in that he'll have a solid game, but the volume of possession won't often be there.

    Collins - Didn't do much to harm his chances in Round 1. Still nestled in my starting lineup.

    Fiorini - Was solid without being spectacular. Obviously has the ceiling, but not sure about the consistency. Moreso one for drafts.

    King - The conditions weren't suited to talls, and his stats probably suggest that!

    Lukosius - Did pretty well considering how slippery it was. Fine as a slow-burn pick if he was priced lower, but not sure if he's worth it at his price.

    Miles - Thought he'd do a bit more to be honest. Not sure if he works better in a more established midfield, but I'm wary.

    Bontempelli - Thought he might have been closer to 16SC than 116. Fumbled, dropped marks, disposal wasn't great, but got a lot of it. Spent a bit of time forward but managed to get 30 so the form ties-in with the end of 2018. If you have him you'd be pretty content, didn't do much to sway anyone's decision either way. On the watchlist.

    Daniel - Will more than likely be a defender next year, and he's a sneaky option in the forwards. Ran around pretty-much unopposed, got a ton of receives and used the ball pretty well. More of a SC pick.

    Dunkley - 79% TOG, and a lot of that wasn't in the middle. Along with Miles, the game probably did more harm than good. Liberatore back seems to have pushed him out of some of the rotations, so will be interesting to see what happens if both plat JLT2.

    English - High TOG, but can't remember how much was spent forward. If Trengove is injured he's definitely in-play, but I'm predicting a solid if unspectacular rise in fantasy numbers this season.

    Hunter - Typical Hunter game. Roamed around, seagulled a bit and found a ton of space. Like Bontempelli, didn't really work his way in or out if you had him or not.

    Liberatore - Has worked his way into my SC. Looked hungry, found a lot of it and threw himself around. Surged past Miles for that mid-priced option in the middle and have no problem picking him if he stays fit by Round 1.

    Macrae - Pretty-much locked. Looked like the best midfielder out there, and was clean for the most part despite the conditions. Have no issue paying top-dollar.

    McLean - Possibly option in SC, not willing to consider in DT. Seems to be on the second line of midfield rotations, but he's a solid user of the ball so when he does get it, he'll get rewarded.

    Naughton - Probably the best tall on the ground. Marks stuck, his kicking was reasonably solid and he's growing into the role very nicely. Doubt he'll have a breakout year, will probably be one of those slow burn to premium types.

    Wallis - Sneaky forward option, but he won't be kicking three every week.

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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    I was pretty impressed with Charlie Ballard’s first half in that game. Got a heap of it, used it well and intercepted nicely. From memory he is in that Ridley/Moore price range down back, IMO worth watching again in JLT2
    Only ever talking SC

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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Box Hill vs Brisbane

    General - This game is hard to take much out of, wouldn't surprise me if Brisbane had 5 players each with more games played individually than the entire Hawks team so from there hard to tell if Hawks were in a "keep it close" strategy or if it's a genuine indicator. Hawks actually went pretty hard and were competitive, Brisbane looked like they hadn't kicked a footy in months, their skills were shockingly bad given they're playing a close to best 22 side.

    Rules - Nothing of note, again a balanced kick in takers rather than anyone specific standing out. Was mostly Rich and Witherden as you'd expect for Brisbane and a whole list of names for Hawks.

    Brisbane - Would have to be pretty unhappy I'd think. Hard to see what they were trying to do as they rarely hit 2 handballs or kicks in a row over the entire game, I'm a Swans fans so I know what bad skills look like and this was on another level. Looking at the DE% it sure feels like every handball to dirt got counted as effective even if it continually ruined any progress. They didn't seem to have any real strategy in play but the positions were logical to me and probably decent indicators given this was all but their best 22.

    Lyons - Was positively shocked to see his DE%, I guess he got the long kick button switched on all his 40m kicks that went 80 high and maybe 40 forward. He's the same old, he seems to wait to be tackled to dispose of it, even when he has 15m of space and I think he's your textbook guy you'd like to be outside the 22 putting pressure on but I reckon he plays plenty given Brisbane's lack of depth.

    Neale - The exception to the quality comment, he was a clear class above, almost like he was the only AFL player in the game which I guess isn't that far off the mark. Looks in ripping shape.

    McCarthy - Was surprised by his score as didn't notice him nearly that much but played well and if he can push a spud like Lewis Taylor out of the side he's worth whatever they paid.

    McCluggage - Like McCarthy, didn't notice him this much and was surprised when checking the final scores. His disposal was way off today, just seemed to find a way to miss even easy kicks.

    Rich - Playing deep in defense and taking the majority of the kick-ins from what I saw (again stats to back that up would be nice) and certainly took advantage of it. Even he missed a bunch of kicks.

    Robinson - Was probably the angriest on the field for Brisbane but was noticeably calm for him which kind of summed up Brisbane.

    Rayner - Played pretty much entirely forward pushing a bit higher than last year. Reckon he's still a year away but wouldn't be shocked by a decent size jump. Groin? issue very late a concern.

    Zorko - Was pretty sloppy but his role was pure midfield and that's a strong takeaway. Did nothing to really move the needle either way and obviously wasn't tagged so can't take anything from that either.

    Witherden - Must have got a lot of long kicks counted as well as he was pretty terrible with the pill and his DE% seems very high. Was hard to really define his role but think it was mostly HBF pushing up the ground. Potential is certainly there but I took nothing really positive away from him in this hitout.

    Archie Smith - Actually rucked really well until he had to direct the ball, took the ball out the ruck a few times which was new. He shows some decent signs but certainly not ahead of a healthy Martin in my eyes and the general talk was he remains a #1 ruck or reserves player.

    Berry - He's probably the inverse of McCluggage in that he was lower than I expected. Could (should) have kicked 4 goals which would have changed that a fair bit I guess. Had glandular fever over the offseason they were saying and mid only rules him out but one to watch for the future.

    Bailey - Shame about his price, did some really nice things off the HBF and looks a good shot at a round 1 game to me.

    Andrews - Was in defense all game after talk of switching forward. Same old with him.

    Taylor - He's not fantasy relevant but I just like pointing out how truly awful he is. One of those AFL players where you can't understand why he's ever been on a list, has set short folks back for another decade with his continual crappiness. He was so bad and his DE% seems genuinely broken as I didn't see him hit more than 2 targets and can recall two that were smothered and another 3 kicks that landed 5m short of the target costing shots at goal.

    Smith - Only played the last quarter and played as a HFF so scoring impressive given that but probably supports his spot in the pecking order right now. He's a big unit but with questions over his tank it's hard to see him playing a lot early.


    Hawks -
    Honestly, almost impossible to take anything away from this. You could make a case that they had maybe 3 best 22 players playing in this game. It's a credit to Clarko how strong their structures were with what will essentially be the Box Hill best 22 playing instead of the regulars and the only guy with any real experience basically resting in the goal square all game. Pretty much take anything here postionally with a grain of salt as they honestly had a couple of interchange guys and Sicily playing out of position from their best 22...

    Cousins - Was really impressive, looked classier than most on the field (again not a big statement given the way Brisbane used it and the stature of the Hawks playing). At 220k he's probably in play at least, almost certainly wouldn't get this kind of role though so hard to judge.

    O'Brien - I honestly didn't even notice he was out there, not sure who I thought he was instead but yeah this is an anomaly of a score so whatever.

    Worpel - Really good role, so basically when the entire team is rested he will have a good role, read into that what you will. One of the few Hawks to kick the ball like a Lion, not a compliment.

    Ceglar/Pittonet - Were thrashed in the ruck by Smith but Ceglar in particular had him around the ground. Still, if I was a Hawks fan I'd be hoping I don't see either of them play.

    Jones - I can't say I noticed him either, obviously wasn't watching for him or anything but a solid score given that which sometimes scoring that well without being noticed is just as much of an indicator as standing out.

    Sicily - Can only hope his woeful kicking at goal has him back in defense, seems a really weird choice to play him forward unless it's a genuine change because otherwise why play him at all in a game you've clearly written off. He played well until the kicking which was genuinely terrible, I wouldn't have said any of his shots was more than maybe a 3/10 for difficulty and that was one of the two he kicked...

    Golds - He did stand out across a half back flank with probably some wing time. One of those guys who took his time to find targets which stands out in what is essentially a VFL level game. Shame he's a 192k mid only.

    Miles - Did some nice things and probably took the most kick-ins, again grain of salt.

    Hanrahan - Was pretty shocked by his TOG as kind of assumed he went off at half time and didn't come back on. Was really good in Q1 and solid in Q2, obviously went missing after that. Looks a good sort but hard to see who he pushes out of Breust, Poppy and co.

    Nash - Probably the pick of the KPF after Sicily even if he doesn't really play that big. He should push for a game again this year.

    Scrimshaw - Did some really nice things and honestly I'd say he was probably the closest to the best 22 mould of anyone out there that hasn't already played. Left foot is very strong and takes his time for the right option. Bit of Finlayson about him in that he is in between sizes, not big enough for bigger guys and probably not agile enough for the smaller so if he's named you have to think it's as an offensive weapon, which to be fair the Hawks to lack. Will certainly be watching him closely in the next game assuming he makes the cut, kind of player who I would think scores better with a bit more composed teammates around him as well as they'll look to get it to him more rather than just getting it away.

    Jiath - I can't remember the last "see ball, get ball" guy to his level. He was playing back pocket mostly and I'd be damned if I could tell you who his man was as it seemed to change as he was an extra man to every contest. He's exciting though so just needs to learn the discipline the Hawks expect. Went forward later in the 4th and did some nice things there as well.

    Walker - Did a few nice things and looks a decent long term prospect, probably not that far from games if there are injuries to the smaller forwards as he did bring genuine small forward traits that no one else really showed.

    Impey - Was off half back or basically Q1 and apparently some of Q2 given his TOG number, while he was there none of the younger guys really did much as he really monopolised the ball, in a way his points are those extra points missing from Scrimshaw and Golds who picked up after he went off.


    This one was basically a waste of time, imo.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Dogs vs Suns

    General - Pretty solid game, not sure if the preseason element or just two bad teams but it was very sloppy but at least part of that was that it was pretty physical with both teams going as hard as anyone has this preseaosn. Was also very humid so as the quarters went on it got sloppier and the game in general it also got sloppier. Both had strong teams from my list understanding with only a couple of peripheral guys missing so probably a strong indicator of roles.

    Rules - 666 again was basically just adhered to in its most basic form which results in the maximum impact which was still minimal to me. Kick-in wise Jordan Murdoch seemed very committed to running 20m and kicking long. No one else did anything of note that I saw.

    Suns - Seemed to be playing a style very similar to Sydney with a swarming back 50 flood for large parts of the game, felt like the ball lived in the Dogs half a lot more and their hands in general but Dogs were sometimes effective on the counter. They still have nothing up forward with Wright still just terrible at always running under the ball and basically removing his height from the equation. They look like they'll struggle to me but I guess you never know.

    Fiorini - Such a natural fantasy scorer, such an ordinary player, just hard to back him in but probably a good draft prospect.

    Witts - Was incredibly underwhelming given the opposition. At least part of that is the dreadful midfield group that can't win 50/50 contests consistently but he needs to give them every advantage and if he can't do it against a kid and a CHB they're in trouble.

    Martin - Really solid role and game for him. Note the low TOG which supported what I saw, wasn't sure if he was trapped forward or just not out there but feel better knowing it was the latter. Started in the main midfield group and would have to be up there on the CB attendances for them. Doesn't look physically larger or anything but did run it out well. He's a genuine smoky for mine given his talent level and myriad roles in the past.

    Ainsworth - I genuinely didn't notice him until after half time, TOG supports he probably came on sometime late in the 2nd, so fair. I certainly didn't notice him being as prolific as his score so that's the double edged viewing sword. I reckon I'd rather pay more for Martin but he's probably a decent draft option given they have no midfield.

    Harbrow - Most noticeable thing for him was him not taking kick-ins for mine. Was watching for this and he can't have taken more than 2 or 3, I only recall one. Same old here.

    Powell - I didn't really notice him but at 210k and FWD he's at least worth watching the 2nd game to see if he backs it up.

    Wright - Not sure how they haven't taught him to mark yet, still runs as far under the ball as he can and then jumps backwards into it, may as well be 170cm if he's going to do that. He's also woeful in the ruck, which is good for Witts if he will continue to be the backup.

    Collins - Was a rock, won a lot of one on ones which justifies/explains the SC ratio, seemed fair. Dogs certainly helped him by continually kicking to his advantage against smaller opponents but he's going to get a metric shit ton of supply so that will even out anyway.

    Miles - I saw his game differently to the consensus, that's for sure. Role was great, got first hands plenty and was probably their best midfielder in the clinches for mine. Was worried he'd gone missing for long periods but looks like he was simply not on the field for large parts which can go either way but given seniority would say it's no concern. He looked very viable to me personally if someone was going down that midprice path.

    Burgess - Big unit and looked really decent. Going to have an awful role as a deep forward for the Suns but was a good up and back worker who is good in the air and strong on the ground in his physical follow up. See him playing 22 if fit and based on this game is almost certainly their best KPF at this point in time, bit of Jack Darling about how he plays to me. Seems their best rookie option but he's not a great one, imo, because Suns.

    Murdoch - As mentioned, took many kick-ins and seemed to have a direct instruction of how to use them. Shame he's allergic to the Sherrin in general though so even with absurd supply it's hard to see him doing anything.

    Swallow - Distorting all the numbers is the fact that he basically played as a forward. I'd guess that 75% of his TOG was spent forward, in the wasteland essentially. Would think he has to be a full time mid this year and that would impact everyone as he's their best at this point.

    Lukosius - You can see he's a talent, had a great kick on one of his touches and he works to good places but he's skinny and was outbodied consistently by Easton Wood and Morris and struggled to impact. Be interesting to see how he's used, think he's the kind who at 120k would be worth a punt but not at his price.

    Rankine - Similar really, his role was a bit more involved, which makes the even worse score a touch sad, but he's going to do some nice things with zero consistency and as a forward pocket with a few flashes on the ball he'll struggle to score in fantasy. Probably be a lock if he was 50k cheaper but will struggle to make cash. Suns aren't exactly the kind of team where you expect a kid to bob up with a big bag either for price spikes.

    King - Solid effort to play half the game and I literally didn't notice him, even when commentators mentioned him and I assumed he was on screen I couldn't find him Think this score sums up his fantasy viability, plus hard to see him playing early.

    Miller - Probably only draft league viable but he was decent while he was in there, still second to the ball too often but at least he was second and not "not at all".

    Dogs - Had a very strong team, dominated possession and inside 50s, always had space, still can't find a target inside 50 and still don't have one. Still playing their best midfielder forward for far too long, still seemingly trying to reinvent half the team to new positions (admittedly I liked a couple of the moves this year). Just a hard game to read but they have all the same concerns and no obvious solutions.

    Macrae - Was everywhere, way more effective by hand than by foot in making things happen and pretty low impact but really that's exactly what you want as it keeps the tags away. Always solid to have 40 touches and not really feel like you impacted the game but he's fantasy gold and I have to say watching him maintain the best role no matter who went through with him was a pretty good sign of where he's regarded. This game actually went a long way to reducing most of my concerns on him which given one of his positives is he is underpriced, is a pretty good result.

    Wallis - Hard to read this one a bit though, spent a lot of time forward but so did the ball and the way the Suns played basically turned that time into midfield stoppage work which is obviously his onion. He also started in the main midfield group which is never a bad sign with a full team. For me this game perfectly summed up the Dogs 3 headed monster of FWDs this year, reckon there is 250ish points to go around for Wallis, McLean and Dunkley and it could really come down to who gets the lucky goals and what not but really hard to sell any of them as a starting pick. Basically they'll all average 85-95 for mine but be super volatile.

    Hunter - Shame he didn't get the defender tag after playing half back for most of last year and I'm pretty certain that he even got DEF in LOL last year. Looks fit and is what he is, low impact vulture of the ball who just always seems to be in space. Great draft guy but hard to see the extra upside in the real stuff.

    Liberatore - Really solid hitout, great midfield time, would guess 2nd to Macrae by a comfortable margin, probably had another 10 tackles in play that the ball fell to the wrong player for him as well so was upside here. Can understand why he's popping up in so many sides after watching. Still a ton of concerns obviously with so many options and such a bad opposition but great start.

    Bont - Amazing ratio, he was trash. He must have gotten 1%ers for every fumble or something to score like that, even with umpires bailing him out when he was well tackled and caught dead he then kicked it out on the full. His golden ticket is eternal, that's for sure. Role was sketchy though, far too much time forward where he draws the best defender because they have literally nothing else. So much depth.

    Naughton - Solid SC draft option with his role. Intercepted everything. Admittedly most opponents will have someone for him to play on and kick it better but still, great signs.

    Daniel - Played off HB and was actually really good in the role, took several kick-ins and stat whored them to full benefit. Composed and used it well. JJ out was the noticeable best 22 impact guy missing so grain of salt but certainly looked a role change and a beneficial one. Could be a really solid LOL with the DEF tag coming. As a FWD he's actually a sneaky option if he's taking kick-ins with any consistency and to continue as the main rebounder for the Dogs.

    Dunkley - See Wallis basically. Role was as expected and the midfield minutes of Libba came from his count.

    English - Seems he certainly got the "never skip leg day" mantra, genuinely looks like he hasn't done a single upper body weight the entire offseason but is noticeably larger in the butt region, basically looks like a middle aged lady now with his build of all hips and ass with no shoulders. Been a few successful pear shaped ruckman so not a terrible thing but it sure didn't translate in this game. Did some nice things but still looks a fair way off and definitely didn't look as springy to me.

    Hayes - Only really seemed to play the 1st and last quarter, TOG backing that up. I thought he was really solid, more HFF flank competition but he was probably the best outside the established names.

    McLean - He was really good but the role is the concern and it was confirmed. Basically have 3 guys who would average 100 points sharing 1 midfield spot. Pretty much all 3 become perfect upgrade targets should the others get injured but until then, through to the keeper for me.

    Trengove - Basically nullified Witts which probably is what he's being asked to do but probably maintains his lead, given how little either give as a forward it's really hard to see the Dogs playing two rucks who can't win the ruck or contribute as forwards.

    Suckling - Played forward all game from what I could tell. Has done that role before and doesn't score well. More a draft option these days but worth noting for that.

    Smith - Only came on in the 2nd half, which probably establishes where he's at but he's a stud of a prospect and it's hard to see him not forcing his way into that FWD/MID cluster**** that's already going on here after a few weeks even if he doesn't start in the ones.



    Good overall indicator for the Dogs, if we see similar next game it would be as good a pattern as we could hope for.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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  14. #42
    FFC Assistant Coach lifelike_'s Avatar
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Just on Daniel, I'm actually warming to him as a pick.

    Was moved back in Round 20 and from then his disposal count was 29, 40, 23 and 29. The 23 was against Carlton so there wasn't too much supply, but an average of 101/102 over those four games could put him well within keeper territory.

    Would be a pretty brave pick though.

  15. #43
    Super Moderator divvydan's Avatar
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Supposedly the WB centre bounce numbers were:

    Macrae - 21
    Libba - 15
    Bont - 14
    Wallis - 12
    Dunkley & McLean - 6
    Smith - 1

    (May not include others who aren't considered fantasy relevant)

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  17. #44
    Super Moderator divvydan's Avatar
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Teams for Gee v Ess tomorrow night are in.

    No Zac Clarke for Ess the main negative. GAJ back for Geelong, along with Hawkins, so that should give a better idea of their strongest setup.

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  19. #45
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by divvydan View Post
    Supposedly the WB centre bounce numbers were:

    Macrae - 21
    Libba - 15
    Bont - 14
    Wallis - 12
    Dunkley & McLean - 6
    Smith - 1

    (May not include others who aren't considered fantasy relevant)
    Supports the eye test, Bont would have run forward after a strong chunk of his and stayed there I reckon also.

    Daniel certainly a smoky choice. Just hard to trust Bevo for mine to stick to anything and there are a ton of cooks that could go back easily like Suckling, JJ and Hunter in particular. Good to hear he took over the Hunter role the last few rounds though, hadn't really noticed it personally.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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