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Thread: JLT Series 2019

  1. #106
    FFC Bag Carrier Wheedus's Avatar
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    SC Forward Midpricers ($200k to $400k)

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  3. #107
    FFC Senior Assistant Coach hendo8888's Avatar
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Where do you get 132 from for Zac Williams? He has 82 on FF?

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    FFC Bag Carrier Wheedus's Avatar
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by hendo8888 View Post
    Where do you get 132 from for Zac Williams? He has 82 on FF?

    Sent from my CLT-L29 using Tapatalk
    He got 82SC from 53% TOG. As per my first post with the rookie summary, I have applied an adjustment for TOG <60% and scaled those scores to the equivalent of 85% TOG.
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  5. #109
    Moderator Notorious_29's Avatar
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    Doesn't tackle enough, feel like he's bait.

    He's had 40 and 39 touches with 1 tackle each game. Last year he had just 5 out of 20 games with 3+ tackles with a max of 5. I doubt there would be many premium midfielders that put up premium numbers averaging 2-3 tackles a game.



    Newman putting up a Carlton low for DT is a huge concern for mine. I've had him locked away since the Docherty knee but it's hard to back a guy in who plays 76% TOG and scores just 29 DT. The issue is it's not like there are a whole heap of options if you've already got Smith/Roberton. I do like Milera but I'm already pretty Crows heavy and his game should probably be more suited to SC over DT.
    Gaff was the first guy that came to mind, 110ppg last season with 51 tackles from 19 games. Less than 3 a game. Unsure if there are others, would have to look deeper. But it's a fair point, probably more so DT orientated than SC.

  6. #110
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Collingwood vs Carlton

    General - Disclaimer, I passed out in the 2nd quarter and only really watched at a passing level after I woke back up, not really an indictment on the game it was actually pretty decent with some solid structures from both sides and a decent hitout for the two sides. Teams were pretty strong for both, few guys here and there might squeeze in but not a lot I wouldn't think.

    Rules - Standard, I really haven't noticed a big change on the rules, might a be a few players here or there that gain or lose 5 but trying to pick them on what I've seen would be nigh on impossible anyway so basically after all the attention they've been given I think there is very little difference and outside of someone clearly taking the bulk of kick-ins for a team (and playing on a lot) I just don't think there has been a noticeable difference, if anything it seems teams are happier to share them now that there is essentially less pressure and responsibility on the kicker. Looking at @Wheedus great breakdowns it would seem that the difference is negligible with only really Rich, Langdon and Savage being kick in takers on that list and they're all highly variable scorers at the best of times so could just be that.
    Collingwood - They'd be happy I'd think. They were pretty thoroughly on top in the first half but didn't put it on the scoreboard, were great at finding space and easy targets coming out of defense and around the ground. They'd be a bit worried about the clearances I think but even that is pretty basic right now so they'll get that sorted given their quality I dare say. The experiments were mostly working for them as well which is always nice.

    Treloar - Same old for him, he just finds the ball. Looked good.

    Crisp - He's the prime rebounder, especially in the first half when Howe was not playing but didn't really slow down after that point and looks primed for a big year. Be interesting to see where the balance comes in here but he's capable of pushing into the 100+ range for sure.

    Sidebottom - Stock standard game. He'll be somewhere up there again.

    Thomas - Another good hitout for him, he's always been capable of finding the pill, I wonder if Elliott back can help him get higher up the ground. Problem for me is De Goey to come in and just no midfield minutes are out there with this team.

    Phillips - Just accumulates, bit more noticeable this week but just up and back. Basically like Sidebottom on the other wing but will never get any attention.

    Pendles - Stock standard, too many cooks here for my liking but he's still a stud.

    Langdon - The other main mover down back and should score well. Hard to truly gauge their balance with Howe so limited.

    Beams - Same story as the other guns.

    Grundy - Interesting game. Covered the ground well but not at the level of last year again which is a concern. Can he flip the switch or does the lack of preseason sting him back into the pack. Does it even matter with the total lack of other options putting hands up?

    Crocker - If anyone has worse tattoos than him I'd be surprised. It's like he went in and went "find a random space and put the worst prison tat on you can" 50 times... Filthy looking human. Has played decently both weeks though.

    Moore - Really solid game, intercept marking and kick-ins aplenty which would be two of his main sources. Certainly a big tick and very much in the equation.

    Elliott - Good again, deep forward so scoring would be volatile but he's absolutely capable of cranking out big purple patches that would make a lot of cash. Still probably 50k too much for me to pick him but you could do worse.

    Blues - They'd also be happy. Won the contested ball and clearances and while they let the Pies get it out of their F50 far too easily they were actually pretty good at slowing them from that point so might just be playing a deeper zone than most sides. There was a lot of positive signs, Pies really dominated the first quarter but couldn't score at all and then the game was a bit more balanced from that point forward. Best part for them is that it was a sustainable brand of footy that can translate to the big stuff, it's not like they just tried harder or something against a team spinning it's tyres. They got first hands against an elite midfield and they defended the transition, especially into their defensive 50, very well. The ball movement was iffy at times and they've still got a fair too many passengers out there but even that is improving.

    Murphy - Same old for him, just roaming between the arcs mostly.

    Simpson - Solid game. Their main avenue out of defense this week and more active. Reckon this is about where par will be for him, really it comes down to having more of the 130+ type games than the <75 types. He's still such a sound upgrade target to me as I don't see the upside right now to start him but he's a gun still.

    Cripps - Beast of a player. That rare unit who is both the KP target around the ground and the best clearance player which are both just such epic SC sources that even though his kicking still leaves a lot to be desired, he'll be golden. I don't throw the 130+ prediction around lightly but I think he's going to give it a damn solid crack this year.

    Walsh - Kid just accumulates the ball and works harder than pretty much any one I've seen at his age. You can just see he's got a strong understanding of where to run but an even stronger ability to actually run there, normally a kid can do one or the other but both takes most guys 5 years to get to and most lists have a half dozen who still can't do it. He just looks like the easiest fantasy choice in a long time.

    SPS - Solid enough again, going to have some genuine responsibility running through the middle this year and needs to elevate his game but has shown good signs.

    Cuningham - Really interestingly priced at 250k, I don't think he's viable but his role was good, he's a more mature guy who has struggled to stay fit but does do a lot of things well and is probably a sneaky chance at an 85 type average that would be more than enough at his price. Not sure how they'll settle at the end of the day and whether he gets midfield or more forward but with midfield time he's on the radar.

    C. Curnow - Works really hard but was probably beaten by Moore on the day but his future is really bright. Not just yet for fantasy for mine.

    Fisher - Lowish TOG here but again good midfield minutes and the talent is there. He's still the sneaky FWD option, imo. Not sure he does quite enough of anything yet to be there but I do think he should be 85+ anyway and that it's a real question of how much higher he can push. If he had a bit more desire to tackle I'd feel much better about picking him but he really hasn't even flashed that for the most part which is a shame as physically he's basically perfect to tackle lots. For mine he's a guy I'm happy to let go but is certainly on my list of guys I think can average 95+ in the forwards this year.

    Setterfield - Happy with his game again. He's active and does a bit of everything. His goal was a complete fluke but well earned. He tackles and pressures at a very high level which is JS gold. He does enough of everything that I feel good he should average 60 and when he kicks a couple or sticks a bunch of tackles he'll push towards 90 on the day. His key will be avoiding the 30-50 scores that can come with his role and if he can do that the average quickly moves towards the 75 range and an ideal rookie. Like pretty much every forward, a loophole would probably be nice for him.

    Dow - I like what he does but he's going to take time to build the engine. Even now he basically gasses himself getting clear and thus butchers most of the kicks but I think when it comes he's got elite potential.

    Gibbons - Didn't notice him much at all to be honest which I guess is reasonable given his score and the ball being mostly with the Pies. This is the role, for mine he's going to have to kick a bag to score well in this role, maybe can do a McPherson and get 10 tackles but it's just a really tough role and the style Carlton deployed isn't even going to help him as they were clearly trapping the ball outside his area rather than within it. For mine the biggest tempter with him is that they're only a couple of injuries from him getting genuine midfield minutes where all my understanding is he's basically got Barlow potential if that happened and given the durability of SPS, Murphy, Cripps, Fisher and then just the age of the likes of Dow and Walsh, there is the very real chance that by round 5 he gets a couple of weeks of genuine midfield time and puts up tons in those games and does his job. The negative is I guess he's probably behind Curnow for this opportunity as well and it's obviously a "possible" scenario rather than likely or given. Ultimately he's that guy that is probably dictated by how many rookies you need. I do think his JS should be decent and his ceiling is enormous in a different role but the role he has is basically going to be what Pickett did last year and we all remember how that went...

    Newman - Not really sure what happened here to be honest. I basically didn't notice him which, again, supports the score but the TOG was fine. To be fair he was a bit deep and most of this game was the Pies ****ing around with it in between the arcs and then a more direct Carlton approach. I wasn't ever really considering him anyway because he has a history of games like this even in good roles with Sydney but honestly he's still fairly priced for a punt, imo.

    E. Curnow - Same role as last week, HF roaming a fair bit. Actually not a bad fantasy role as almost an undersized leading target to open space for other leaders or get the hitup target. Not the tackle machine role of last year though so certainly starting out overpriced but for leagues with position changes, he's worth a pick if he's there when you're picking forwards to average 80+, imo.

    Polson - He's such a terrible footballer. I noticed 4 of his kicks and to describe any of them as a "shank" would be pretty generous, they were D grade reserves bad bad kicks. I just can't fathom that he's in their best 25 on any real criteria be it current or potential ability so I guess I don't get it.
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  8. #111
    Moderator Athomas's Avatar
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Love the thoughts Wogi. I'll expand on most relevant players:

    We played 22, Pies played 24 (low TOG for Howe/Brown but still 33%/41% TOG) so I was pleased how we ran out the match.

    Crisp - Looked good. 135DT/99SC isn't a great ratio, game/team high 8 clangers doesn't help. Certainly an option, I thought he was meant to have had an average pre-season injury wise but 78% TOG and playing well, seems fine.
    Grundy - Didn't look particularly great. Killed me last year, I feel I should take him on again at his price
    Moore - Happy to pick him in SC at this stage, did look good.
    Howe - Was a bit rusty when he came on. Upgrade target if anything.

    Simpson - Ooooh he looked like his usual self after last week's average game. Definitely an option, probably agree with Wogi about not having that much upside though.
    Cripps - Usual self.
    Walsh - Usual self (absolute jet!!) - equal team high 13CP with Cripps.
    Cunningham - To expand on Wogi's thoughts, he played very well again. He is pretty much forward, putting pressure on, 4 tackles (Gibbons had 5, Polson 3) but Cunningham is much better with the ball at the moment. Would say all 3 start Round 1, obviously I am praying they play Fasolo over Polson.
    Setterfield - Not a huge fantasy score but played his role, is still being eased into it, 71% TOG this week.
    Newman - Rule him out, I was considering him so this makes it easier. Didn't play badly (couple of average frees against and outmarked) but mainly didn't get much ball.


    That Carlton 22 is pretty much what we are looking at Round 1. Shame Stocker didn't get some game time this match, would've liked to see him. I can only see three potential differences for our Round 1 team:

    OUT: Phillips
    IN: Kreuzer
    This is purely if Kreuzer is able to play Round 1, otherwise Phillips will play.

    OUT: Polson/Gibbons
    IN: Fasolo
    Fas was solid in VFL match yesterday against Collingwood VFL. Not sure if he's done enough returning from that arm injury. Polson did 2-3 good things amongst his 5-6 facepalm moments. Gibbons should play if it's a decision between himself and Polson.

    OUT: Garlett
    IN: ???
    Marchbank won't be in for the early rounds of the season. Williamson is also indefinitely out. LOB (O'Brien) is the logical replacement, but he played neither JLT match, which makes it look like Garlett is going to play Round 1. Garlett was better this week, but Collingwood didn't really expose him 1-1 & he was still very average.

    Kennedy is the only other consideration, think he will be given a few weeks in the VFL. Good depth though if required (Kennedy, JSOS, LOB, Casboult, Lobbe etc)
    Last edited by Athomas; 11th March 2019 at 09:25 PM.
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  10. #112
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Hawthorn vs Richmond

    General - Pretty decent game, skills were really slopping in the 2nd quarter particularly but in general after Q1 the pressure was a bit higher and both teams wasted the pill a ton. Hawks jumped the Tigers and then really put the cue in the rack, was a big 2nd half by the Tigers to get back and steal the win.

    Rules - Same old, did have an example of a team putting pressure off the back of the square late in the game with the Tigers but otherwise it was again standard. the 50m rule probably the most prominent as both teams looked to exploit it for free 50s, Tigers were successful, players are going to need to be super switched on when a 50 is given.

    Hawthorn - Stronger side, still a lot of the lesser lights getting games and chances, it's mostly peripheral guys that are missing at this point though from what I could tell. They'd be happy with this given where the two teams are at. Not sure where Wingard will play but would think midfield as that's their weakest area. Gunston I'd think plays forward but no idea where he's at.

    O'Meara - Really solid game and looks in good nick. Could certainly buy a case for starting him, especially in DT.

    Shiels - Should be a decent draft option, will have a lot of responsibility.

    Breust - Could he sustain last year? No real reason he can't to be honest, quality player, but tough role.

    Worpel - Role as advertised for him, heavily involved in the midfield. His ball use is very hit and miss but he's a genuine premium breakout option for mine. The hard part for him is that he probably is going to need to carry his SC on sheer volume and contestedness as his ball use is going to hurt him. I do think his ratio was harsh in this one though.

    Burgoyne - Playing forward this game, will be interesting to see how they use him this year.

    Roughy - Had a good game, looks in good shape.

    Cousins - Strong role again, not as much midfield time, more HFF into midfield than last weeks purer midfield role but he looks the goods for early games. Expensive but I don't see why he can't score similar to this pretty regularly.

    McEvoy - Decent hitout for him. Looks fit.

    Scrimshaw - Started like a house on fire but ran out of steam as the game went on. Probably an indicator of where his engine is at and that will be the question for whether he can get early games and string them together. He's class with the ball though so I think they will try and find a way to get him involved.

    Morrison - They'd be very happy with his tackling, was tough as nails in that regard. Looks a decent long term player as well that's not quite ready.

    Sicily - Played down back, looked the goods, took pretty much every kickout while he was down there. I'm so torn here because I still see a 110 player in him and the best defender as long as he's playing as a defender but I'm not sure I trust it. Not an overly consistent scorer last year so probably better to just wait and see. Note his TOG is the reason for the final score. He was out there basically while the Hawks were good so that's a good thing for his role.

    Richmond - Tale of two halves for them. Their stars picked up in the 2nd half and they closed the 40 odd points like it was nothing. Look dangerous as a side.

    Cotchin - Big 2nd half to lead them back. Looks fit.

    Higgins - HFF role pushing through the middle/wing. He looks ready for a big year and could well make the push towards premium also, I reckon he's another year and a bit more midfield time from it.

    Martin - Was really impressive, was the only guy who showed much class in the 2nd quarter. Really low TOG, shut down for the 4th basically and a chunk of the 3rd I believe. He looks noticeably thinner than last year to me and ready for a big year.

    Graham - Was rock solid, there is a future premium in there somewhere.

    Prestia - Looks fit, same old otherwise.

    Rance - Looked good. Think they'll continue to share responsibilities and I expect he will cop a few tags.

    Houli - Not sure about his ratio, nothing really stood out to me as a reason for it. Role is solid.

    Nankervis - Rucked the first half and then chilled forward a bit more in the 3rd before I believe calling it a day in the 4th when Soldo came on for his chance. Was solid.

    Riewoldt - Well beaten in the first half, worked his way into it and had a say in the result.

    Short - Role is solid, taking kick-ins but I worry too many cooks is going to keep him around where he's priced for now.

    Markov - Playing down back and was decent again, be interesting if he is named come round one as he's cheap enough to be chosen. I don't really see anyone of note missing so he has to be a chance at this point, they went him over Ellis in this game and that's the obvious alternate. He was better than McIntosh and Menadue as well.

    Balta - Clearly being trialed as the 2nd ruck and wasn't terrible, had a couple of nice acts in the middle and also up forward. Nowhere near as good as last week and I'd imagine Lynch is going to make his selection very difficult come round 1 but he's a chance. Would depend if they go with 3 talls knowing that Balta and Riewoldt are both pretty good on the ground still and Balta as a 2nd ruck obviously or just go with the two talls and ruck someone like Graham or something.

    Ross - Started the game in the midfield and got a great role, played very little after that though so assume it was more a future role, he's a genuine big body who looks a fair bit like Graham, did a few nice things but was a bit slow with the ball early but loves to throw his weight around and should have a future.

    Soldo - Only played late which probably says it all about their preferred setup. Seemed to basically replace Nank as the R1, hard to see them playing together given that. Really only relevant in his potential impact on Balta for mine anyway.
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