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Thread: JLT Series 2019

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    Super Moderator divvydan's Avatar
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    JLT Series 2019

    2019 JLT Community Series Fixture


    Week one

    Thursday, February 28
    Carlton v Essendon at Ikon Park, 6.40pm EDT

    Friday, March 1
    West Coast v Geelong at Leederville Oval, 4.10pm WST

    Saturday, March 2
    North Melbourne v St Kilda at Avalon Airport Oval, Werribee, 1.10pm EDT
    Adelaide v Port Adelaide at the Memorial Oval, Port Pirie, 3.40pm CDT
    GWS Giants v Sydney at Blacktown International Sportspark, 7.10pm EDT

    Sunday, March 3
    Brisbane v Hawthorn at Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex, 12.40pm EST
    Richmond v Melbourne at Deakin Reserve, Shepparton, 4.40pm EDT
    Gold Coast v Western Bulldogs at Great Barrier Reef Arena, Mackay, 6.40pm EST

    Monday, March 4
    Fremantle v Collingwood at HBF Arena, Joondalup, 3.40pm WST



    Week two

    Thursday, March 7
    Geelong v Essendon at GMHBA Stadium, 7.10pm EDT

    Friday, March 8
    GWS Giants v Adelaide at UNSW Canberra Oval, 7.10pm EDT

    Saturday, March 9
    Port Adelaide v North Melbourne at Alberton Oval, 12.40pm CDT
    Melbourne v Brisbane at Casey Fields, Cranbourne, 4.10pm EDT
    Hawthorn v Richmond at UTAS Stadium, 7.10pm EDT

    Sunday, March 10
    Sydney v Gold Coast at Oakes Oval, Lismore, 1.10pm EDT
    Western Bulldogs v St Kilda at Mars Stadium, Ballarat, 4.10pm EDT
    Fremantle v West Coast at Rushton Park, Mandurah, 4.10pm WST

    Monday, March 11
    Collingwood v Carlton at Morwell Recreation Reserve, 2.10pm EDT

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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Was going to complain about the timing of our 2nd game but it's a public holiday that Monday
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    WCE & Freo stay in WA for it, well done AFL at last
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Some thoughts on Carlton/Essendon:

    Match:
    Was really enjoying Carlton's dominance, until Essendon kicked 5 in the last to put the margin back to 4 points. All the players we needed to show natural improvement looked good (Cunningham, Fisher, SPS, Weitering) while all the new recruits looked great too (Walsh, Setterfield, Gibbons, Gov, Newman)

    Carlton:

    Cripps - 33 possessions, 20CP, 11CL Did have 5 clangers but looked great, looks in ripping shape.
    Walsh - I was 100% going to pick him based on pre-season training, junior numbers, role and intraclub last week. It looks like most will now too unfortunately.
    Newman - Scored a little better than I expected (97DT, not sure on SC yet) but was very handy down back. He's not a direct Docherty replacement for us, but he has leadership qualities and fits in there well. I would like to resist picking him though as I do struggle to see him as a top 6 back. Kick-ins were shared amongst Simpson, Plowman, Thomas, Newman - so certainly no-one to particularly benefit, although we did seem to play on everytime I saw.
    Fisher - Not fantasy relevant but he's one of the players we need to continue to rise up and he looked good.
    Setterfield - 8 tackles, locked in now that he looks pretty much fully fit. 73% TOG, would expect maybe 76% in JLT2 and 77-80% in the season proper. Was mainly HFF I think but should score well and have time in the midfield.
    Phillips - Played lone ruck first half and didn't play much in the 2nd half as he swapped with Lobbe. Good to have some ruck depth as Kreuzer is an injury time bomb and could still miss Round 1.
    Cunningham - Kicked 3, probably plays Round 1. Pleases me as hopefully means Polson doesn't play.
    SPS - Must have faded 2nd half but definitely looked improved on 2018.. Fingers crossed!
    Gibbons - Often the deepest forward, but crummed well and did enough imo (3 goals). Didn't get any midfield time really, seemed to make the most of his opportunity. I would say still on track for Round 1, would be the type of rookie who I still say is a lock but wouldn't put him on the field.
    Dow - Did some nice things. Certainly wouldn't consider him for a fantasy breakout (underdone pre-season too) but did enough for me to say he is still on track for Round 1.
    Simpson - Looked good but was pretty quiet I guess with 55DT from 87% TOG. Could argue Newman affects him negatively but it is just a pre-season game. That being said, I wasn't planning on picking him so that hasn't changed.
    Weitering - Played well. Looks good!
    Garlett - The backline experiment continues. This week he turned it over less and generally used it better (1 clanger). He seemed to get outmarked multiple times though, I doubt he is playing Round 1.
    Silvangi - I wonder if he will stay on our list forever as a fringe player. He did enough imo to be in the list of emergencies for Round 1.
    McKay - 10CP from his 12 possessions. Will be important to us this year with Charlie and Gov.
    Polson - Super frustrating as usual. Did some ok things in the 2nd half. 8 possessions, 1 behind, 4 clangers, didn't particularly put any outstanding forward pressure on (nothing that Cunningham/Gibbons couldn't do). Please don't play him Round 1.
    Curnow C - Played a half, ankle scare Q2 so sat out the 2nd half. Think it's just precautionary.
    Gov - Kicked 2 goals, 59% TOG, didn't do too much else. I was happy with him though.


    Essendon:

    Clarke - Played fantastically. Did well agaisnt Phillips and monstered McKay. I could see him playing as the #1 ruck if Bellchambers had any niggle at all. Interesting if they will ruck share otherwise.
    McGrath - Had a fantastic match. Kicked two goals and lots of clearances. Hard to read too much into it when Shiel had 51% TOG, Heppell 39%, Merrett 36%. However if they are all underdone, he could start well with the intention to upgrade come byes or when they return? Probably hard to justify.
    Ridley - Apart from a free against (the one time I was looking out for him), he played well, somehow got to 92DT with 5 marks, 5 tackles. Priced at $233K, one to consider if he's named Round 1 and you are running 3 backline rookies and/or something happens to Collins etc.
    Shiel - Looked great at times, not sure how he is so open often, must be a hard runner (or slack Carlton mids or both). He was iced up behind the knee, said he got a corkie from Phillips, he's not sure if he will play JLT2 yet. I don't think many were considering him for fantasy, not particularly someone I was looking at.
    Saad - He was tearing us apart this match. I'm sure his SC will be very nice compared to his 61DT.
    Francis - I think Wheedus was looking at him. Doesn't interest me at $350K (wow, McGrath is $380K, only $30K diff!) but he probably lost some intercepts / possessions to Ridley/Hartley who might not be there come Round 1.
    Heppell - Looked good from limited TOG. Building into JLT2 nicely then Round 1.
    Smith - Looked good from limited TOG. Building into JLT2 nicely then Round 1.
    Daniher - I don't like key forwards really, but he was fine. Kicked 1.2 from 56% TOG, so was a bit inaccurate and low TOG. Could see how he goes JLT2 if he kicks 4.1 from 80% TOG etc, he could come back into consideration at $277K for sure.
    Merrett - He looked pretty junk in my opinion. Kind of glad, I didn't really want to consider him after his ankle scare or whatever it was. Phillips caught him holding the ball at one stage. Could even be an upgrade target if he starts slow.


    Overall thoughts:
    Both teams probably pleased, depending on injury results to Shiel and CCurnow.

    Fantasy thoughts:
    Cripps showed no signs of going backwards. Walsh seems a dead set lock for me, I expect 85DT/85SC+ average. He could honestly exceed that, which is incredible for a first year 18 year old. Newman is definitely keeping himself alive as an option at this early stage. Setterfield is close to a lock too as a M/F, he will play Round 1 for sure. Gibbons played well but not a great DT score (I believe his SC score will be better than 60DT) - I'd still find it hard not to pick him if named Round 1, which he should be barring a JLT2 disaster. Simpson didn't install me with confidence, but I know plenty say that every pre-season. Clarke is close to a lock at R3 for me unless Fort is named. I believe he will get games early in the season. Obviously if something happened to Belly, he'd be a lock on the field imo. McGrath could be teasing again, or he could be getting some much bigger midfield minutes. One to watch, but I feel JLT2 isn't going to clear it up as Shiel will probably miss, while Heppell/Merrett will still play restricted minutes. Ridley was good and is a sneaky one to watch. Francis is a pass for me but JLT2 could tempt others if he plays/scores better. Merrett looks a pass for me, possibly lacking match fitness from the ankle injury.
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Only watched 3/4 closely and 4th is running the background now but honestly given the game is about as intense as the AFLX stuff and that a lot of the guns are done already I don't see any of my thoughts changing...

    TL;DR - Cripps and Walsh looked great/lockish. Not much else stood out and the coaching was so vanilla you can't get any read on rule changes or roles.

    General - Pretty tame game, both teams playing very vanilla style and with nothing standing out stylistically to me except for the vanilla element. Probably about a 60% intensity level, certainly a preseason game.

    6-6-6 - This was really hard to judge, both teams went with a hardcore application of this and were giving away absolutely nothing for how they will deal with it unless their approach is going to hold. Neither team applied any pressure off the back or front of the square, neither moved the wings anywhere but dead central basically. As a result it had a fairly significant impact, especially combined with the 60% intensity meant that basically every centre bounce resulted in a walkout clearance. Honestly I got about zero out of this game as far as how this will impact in the season proper other than I'd be shocked if any AFL coach would be happy with the ease of clearances that resulted from doing nothing.

    Kick-In - Honestly barely noticeable as a difference, both teams went with a nearest man approach which may be the biggest takeaway from it as they did look to move fairly quickly and they did go long fairly commonly with the play-on rate certainly feeling like it was up but it certainly didn't feel any different outside of that, the very first one and about one other seemed any deeper than average. Again, not sure if both sides just wanted to give nothing away or if this is symbolic of change overall. Certainly didn't feel like it impacted the scoring with a guy like Newman taking less kick-ins than I'd expect but playing on probably slightly more for example.

    Carlton -
    Were running out of gas pretty badly midway through the third, based on final score I assume that continued big time. Did some nice things, especially in the centre clearances where they were well on top and getting clearer breaks, again, no pressure here so hard to judge but was a positive sign, if teams actually play the 666 like these two did, a dominant midfield will be even more important.

    Cripps - Beast, looks super fit and played really solidly. Disposal a bit dodgy but that's his wart I guess so it's well known. Did have an ankle taped at 3/4 time but came back and looked fine.
    Walsh - Looks really great. Cotchin like in the way that he moves for mine and just keeps running, one of those guys who even when he looks done can find another 20m if a tackle/touch is on the cards. Played about as good a role as anyone could hope and the Blues aren't missing anyone so that's a great sign. Looks an onfield lock on the back of one game.
    Newman - Looked solid. Same old, half back role. Heavy in the rebound. Didn't get a significant amount of the kick-ins, didn't get chippy with Simpson which are both things I'd want if I was thinking of taking him. Reckon he's a great draft prospect but at his price I just think there is too much downside risk of not making top 6.
    Fisher - He's very much worth watching, imo. Looks fit and to have added some size and his role was excellent. Forward status is his real strength. There isn't any reason he can't push to the mid 90s, not sure he can go beyond that so would depend where you're drawing the premium line but he did nothing special for mine and rolled out with a 96 and I don't see the role changing.
    Setterfield - Looked solid to me. Role not great unless the Blues are going to be surprisingly good but kind of role you can lock down. HFF pushing up a bit and putting solid pressure (didn't notice the 8 tackles watching so that's a bonus). Played the whole game and covered decent ground which is a good sign for fitness. Added bonus is a few of the others I'd suggest he's competing with didn't do much.
    Murphy - Looked a bit slow to be honest but did some decent things. Full preseason game mode for him though.
    E. Curnow - Pure forward role from what I could see, didn't notice him in the midfield at all. Seemed to be fairly deep as well. Almost certainly a defined role with pressure the focus, which probably indicates that the Blues are going to at least attempt to play that way this year.
    Cunningham - Was probably the next best of the small forwards after Gibbons but he didn't do anything special to stand out to me other than not being as bad as a couple of the others and actually looking like an AFL player at times.
    SPS - Really good role but he just doesn't do enough for fantasy purposes, seemed to be in the main midfield mix but he doesn't tackle, doesn't really enjoy winning the pill and doesn't push hard enough into space. Does look a lot fitter though and was doing a decent job of swooping for the breakaway kicks which is a great skill to be your one trick. Also dropped a lot of marks which I'd expect him to take during the season.
    Gibbons - Awful fantasy role but he looks a really decent player. Kind of guy who probably averages in the 50-70 range as a best case in his current role but just screams that he'd average 90+ if a midfield spot opened up for him as he just finds space. Certainly a bit of Rockliff watching him where he just bobs up in space where the ball will go next consistently but he was buried really deep in a team that will likely not be good so he's kind of a last resort fantasy pick right now. Also the kind of tough role for a mature age rookie as it's a bad team and if things go awry as they very possibly will then he's going to have a hard time holding the spot.
    Simpson - Preseason mode as well for him, looked fit though and was moving great. Kick-ins are the big question here, no indicator he'll dominate them from this game which is the concern.
    Garlett - Playing off half back, still doesn't look good but did find more of the ball. His disposal was the big concern, just goes short to 50/50s with bad kicks far too often. Not impressed.
    Thomas - Same role as last year, really decent draft option.
    Phillips - Actually pretty decent, hands of rock often still but was respectable.
    Polson - I don't get it. I just don't see a single tangible AFL skill. Good for Gibbons/Setterfield JS if he's the competition...
    C. Curnow - Got a knock that looked terrible at first but is apparently alright, was looking decent before that. Think one day he will be a premium level forward but hard to see it in a bad team so would take a Blues surprise to me.


    Essendon - Definitely could see they're a more developed team by the way they were running it out, they were even lower intensity than Carlton and did only play a few of the stars for a half so obviously result not a concern for them. So vanilla but given their coach the question is whether that's a tactical indication or a conscious decision. I saw nothing structurally from them that gave me a feel of how they want to play basically which I guess is good if you're trying to hide it but shocking if that's your actual strategy.

    Clarke - Was solid. Looks super fit which is his biggest concern other than JS. Honestly no reason he can't score comparably to how he did in a one out role, he honestly didn't do anything special to me but was really solid. Solid enough when forward that you could make the case as an R2 in the best 22 but it's a hard sell.
    McGrath - Was very surprised by his score as he wasn't that noticeable to me (I'm guessing he scored in Q4?). Role was solid but it's so hard to judge with Heppell playing less than a half, Merrett just chilling half forward and then Shiel going off hurt as well. Looks clearly ahead of the other non-established guys though.
    Ridley - Really interesting one, scored great, was involved and had a decent role across half back. Probably only comes into play if there is a lack of rookies but he was impressive to me, made a couple of really nice plays. Onto the watch list at the very least and a strong draft league pick, imo.
    Hartley - That hair... Who actually goes in and says "Make it ginger"...
    Stringer - Role was basically the end of last year, looks fit but midfield minutes not there so hard to see any real upside.
    Shiel - Hurt his knee, didn't look severe but a concern for a guy with his durability record. Role as you'd expect.
    Hurley - Nothing special but so hard to judge in the aforementioned vanilla structures. They just made no effort to set up any defensive structures which makes finding out who is the intercept preference impossible. Looks fit though so that's a positive.
    McKenna - Such an exciting player. Not fantasy relevant without kick-ins, probably not relevant anyway.
    Heppell - Looked decent in the first quarter and a bit that he played. Role was same old. Will be interesting to see the Shiel dynamic and what it means for the others but saw nothing to support any significant change in scoring.
    Smith - Only played the second half, looked alright, role was decent but, again, hard to gauge when so many parts are not involved.
    Parish - Role was really decent which makes the stinker of a score a bit of a conundrum. I think that he's the obvious guy who slips back when everyone is there and loses the role, good for McGrath but bad for Parish prospects.
    Long - Played off HBF, 1st pick level pricing and his scoring would probably rule him out but one to watch as that half back role can be lucrative, would need to be a big shortage of mid options though.
    Daniher - Certainly got the preseason memo, about as effortless as you could get not sure he even thought about tackling in this one and his workrate was lamentable. He looked fit so that's a bit of a concern given you'd think (hope) he'd be chewing at the bit to get out there and have a hit out. Pushed into the ruck at times which probably suggests what he'll do in the season but if he plays like that he'll get dropped pretty soon.
    Merrett -Didn't look terribly fit, basically played HFF with a couple of midfield bursts in the 1st half and then didn't come back.
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Probably should have mentioned Francis also as a fantasy relevant guy, didn't really stand out. As with my Hurley comment, the complete lack of any real strategy by the Bombers makes it impossible to really read into much. He did nothing to stand out positively or negatively to me and it wasn't obvious to me who was the preferred interceptor or if they even wanted one. He didn't seem to be involved in the kick-ins at all with Hartley, Hurley and McKenna taking the ones I noticed but again, hard to tell and I easily could have mixed him and Hartley up on a couple.
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    SC scores from last night. If I find some time I'll channel my inner @pvcyclone and add DT and PPM.

    CARLTON
    P. Cripps 124
    W. Setterfield 113
    S. Walsh 102
    D. Cuningham 100
    N. Newman 97
    J. Weitering 92
    D. Thomas 88
    S. Petrevski 86
    A. Phillips 81
    E. Curnow 75
    Z. Fisher 72
    H. McKay 71
    M. Gibbons 68
    P. Dow 65
    K. Simpson 62
    C. Curnow 62
    M. Murphy 61
    J. Garlett 54
    J. Silvagni 50
    M. Lobbe 43
    L. Jones 42
    L. Plowman 38
    M. McGovern 27
    C. Polson 22
    A. Schumacher 4

    ESSENDON
    J. Ridley 97
    M. Brown 97
    J. Stringer 93
    Z. Clarke 89
    A. Francis 85
    A. McGrath 85
    A. McDonald-Tipungwuti 82
    M. Hartley 82
    C. McKenna 80
    A. Saad 79
    D. Zaharakis 79
    P. Ambrose 72
    M. Guelfi 64
    M. Hurley 61
    J. Long 56
    D. Heppell 56
    D. Smith 54
    D. Shiel 50
    D. Parish 44
    J. Laverde 41
    K. Langford 35
    J. Daniher 35
    Z. Merrett 27
    M. Baguley 25
    T. Jok 22
    S. McKernan 10
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Setterfield will be in 100% of teams now

    Not sure what to make of Gibbons' game. On the one hand, he kicked 3 goals, on the other hand, he scored 68 from what you'd assume isn't a sustainable output.
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Gibbons has taken Matty Wrights role. His scoring will rely on goals and he'll have ups and downs but he looks a solid player with JS. At $102k, I can't see why you wouldn't pick him. Maybe just on the bench instead of the ground.
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Gibbons is perfect mid bench, decent JS, basement price and will throw in the odd good score to keep his cash generation going and not stagnating.

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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Agreed RE: Gibbons.

    Wogi, Carlton played two less players so I’m hoping that’s why we ran out of steam (Schumacher came on for 6% TOG late)

    Someone on Twitter pointed out Newman played 87% TOG compared to 73% at Sydney. Could be an interesting development if similar TOG/scoring in JLT2.

    And Wheedus, Francis SC ratio surprised me, if a bad game is 85SC that’s a good sign.
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Andy Mcgrath looked absolutely beastly I thought, the bigger midfield guns may have been missing, but if he is going to offer that level of play, he will get his midfield minutes.
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Drewy_GFC View Post
    Andy Mcgrath looked absolutely beastly I thought, the bigger midfield guns may have been missing, but if he is going to offer that level of play, he will get his midfield minutes.
    He certainly went ham in the last quarter. It's the first time I've seen him really dominate a game. I still have my reservations he can do it consistently in games but on the plus side, he definitely looked to have an outside mid role, starting on the wing a fair bit.
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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Just on the kick-ins, 15/17 were played on outside the square but as mentioned earlier, there weren't any real designated players taking them, just whoever was around to move the play on as quickly as possible. The ratio of playing on is very encouraging if it projects into the season.

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    Re: JLT Series 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Athomas View Post
    Agreed RE: Gibbons.

    Wogi, Carlton played two less players so I’m hoping that’s why we ran out of steam (Schumacher came on for 6% TOG late)

    Someone on Twitter pointed out Newman played 87% TOG compared to 73% at Sydney. Could be an interesting development if similar TOG/scoring in JLT2.

    And Wheedus, Francis SC ratio surprised me, if a bad game is 85SC that’s a good sign.
    You're also a very young side so totally understandable to me. Especially with some of the fitter guys actually playing "limited" roles to fully expose the kids to midfield. Guys like SPS, Dow, Fisher, et al are still building tanks.

    Newman's role at Sydney was all over the shop as well, really the only time he had a consistent role was the first 10 or so games where he averaged 90ish, from round 15 onward that season McVeigh slotted back into the defense and Newman got pushed out to a wing, where he doesn't score as well (partly because Sydney's wings never score well because of the way we play). Last year he was all over the shop, some weeks he was in for Nick Smith in a lock down role, some times for McVeigh in a more offensive role, sometimes in with both of those and on the wing again.

    Basically I don't see a reason he can't push similar numbers to Simpson (maybe not last years outlier) and be a 90-100 guy, I just wonder if he can push into the 100+ bracket. I actually think the takeaway from last night is that Thomas, Simpson and Newman are going to basically play "nearest to the ball" on kick-ins with Plowman also an option at times. Genuinely reckon it will bring Simpson back to where he has basically always been if that happens and no real reason Newman can't be similar, I expect those two will get quite the little ball sharing operation going as the season progresses. Worth noting, imo at least, that Simpson's scoring did drop off to 103 over the 2nd half of the season when Thomas went into defense from 106.5 in the first 10 games. Not a huge drop off but I'd think adding another genuine rebounder and kick-in thief is probably a couple more points. Honestly would think that you're likely looking at Simpson in the 90-102 range, Newman in the 85-98 type range and Thomas in the 85-95 type range there, there should be enough supply but split 3 ways I think I'd lean towards the middle of all those ranges with the assumption that Carlton wont be great and thus supply will be decent. Another sting for this group is none of them are stand out intercept players so probably going to struggle to supplement with that (to be fair, all 3 are above average for smalls but I think Weitering takes first shot at that role still and they're not a Docherty/Hodge type of elite interceptor).


    Francis is going to have a strong ratio, the role he has and the way he plays basically means he gets almost no cheap ball and he's also not a big tackler which tends to be 1:1 at best. The question remains if he can have a high enough DT level to reach premium levels. His ratio last year was already Rance level, no one is really going beyond that, imo, so he needs to boost his base by 10-15 points while holding that ratio. The question is will a fit Hurley and any other additions change that or not. To be fair I also think Essendon should be a strong side this year so supply shouldn't be strong for a guy relying on winning one on ones and intercept marks for his scoring. Similar to how Rance has dropped off his scoring the past couple of years as the Tigers have improved as a side I'd expect Francis probably to have a similar correlative scoring output. Mostly though I think Hurley and Hartley are better kicks and Hurley is probably better at the intercept role as well so he'd really make sense to be the main man. The smalls and their balance will be interesting. Saad and McKenna are not high volume guys but both are super explosive and dangerous and I'd expect the Bombers will be trying to get more and more from them and Ridley sure looked good as a rebounder also. Who plays out of Ambrose and Hartley could also be a factor, assuming Francis is locked in ahead of both of course.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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