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Thread: Round 9 Trades

  1. #61
    FFC Bag Carrier Wheedus's Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    Macrae just looks like an imposing unit. IIRC he was the ball magnet of his draft year and had some sort of magical TAC Cup grand final performance. However, the biggest concern from that draft was his size and I think he's always been in Bont's shadow. Not any more.

    My other misconception was I've never thought of him as an inside player and pegged him as reliant on a good outside game. Once again, he dispelled that myth last night. He thrived in those conditions.

    It's probably something worth thinking about. The AFL in its infinite stupidity was so concerned about the second man up at ruck contests, they've now managed to create the very problem they've been trying to solve. By requiring teams to nominate a ruckman at every stoppage, the game slows down even more and more players get to the contest. Coming into winter, stoppages should only become more prevalent. It's like an open buffet for quality inside players with good hand skills who can take all the SC honey with effective contested possessions. As Wogi said, the reward is always higher for an effective handball from a contest than an ineffective scunge kick. Players like Oliver, Titch, Fyfe and Macrae come into their own. You've only got to look at Oliver's HB numbers over the past couple of rounds. He's also leading the league for HBs averaging 18.9. Macrae is 5th at 17.2. In terms of total clearances, the top 5 at the moment are Titch, Fyfe, Cripps, Oliver and Wines with Macrae 8th. When you look at just stoppage clearances, Titch is still number one but Macrae is 3rd.

    The interesting stat is Danger is nowhere to be seen and as @Hodges pointed out, his clearance numbers are way down this year, albeit he's still ranked 9th for contested possessions.

    I might have to start rethinking the Danger trade in.

    Also, having regard to the above, as a bit of a smoky worth considering, Ben Cunnington is currently ranked in the top 5 for all those stats and has a five round average of 112sc with a season average of just over 100 after a slow start. Price $515k. Given most midfields are already loaded, I doubt many would go there unless they were looking for a bailout. Currently in a grand total of 778 teams.
    Last edited by Wheedus; 19th May 2018 at 01:23 PM.
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  3. #62
    Moderator Notorious_29's Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    I still think Danger is just working himself into the season, with the early hamstring injury they've been protecting his workload. Tim Kelly playing so well in the midfield has probably hurt his inside numbers and CB's also.

    He is a champion though, I'm still happy to back him in to have a big second half to the season. To this point he's going at 101DT/115 SC. If it all comes together there is room for large improvement.

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  5. #63
    FFC Football Operations Manager Hodges's Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    Yeah I think thats definitely a factor, Kelly being so good on the ball has allowed Danger to play outside the square a bit more. Probably less stress on the back and hammies if you are outside the square and being used more as a handball receive type guy. I still think he will turn those numbers around as the season goes on though.

    Good post on Macrae @Wheedus , I agree with pretty much all that. I spent last night pretty much just watching Macrae as well and I was shocked he did so well in the wet. I also had him pegged as an outside guy who was happening to get more inside ball this year, but he is a legit elite inside player. He does that Oliver thing where he can be in and under digging it out, but he is also great at positioning himself to be the first guy to grab the ball when it pops out of a scrum. He could not have looked more at home in the wet too, its rare to see a player be a tackling machine when the conditions call for it, but average 6 marks a game whens its dry. Really makes his game adaptable to the games under the Etihad roof and then rainy conditions anywhere else.

    And that ruck point is a good one, hadnt really considered that. I did notice last night how many contests Macrae gets to, he is always there. The fact that each ruck contest has slowed a bit would definitely help him there. As much as its going to suck, I think im just going to pay the ~720k for him, he looks to have genuinely elevated his game this year - and he was already the 11th best SC scorer last year.
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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheedus View Post
    Macrae just looks like an imposing unit. IIRC he was the ball magnet of his draft year and had some sort of magical TAC Cup grand final performance. However, the biggest concern from that draft was his size and I think he's always been in Bont's shadow. Not any more.

    My other misconception was I've never thought of him as an inside player and pegged him as reliant on a good outside game. Once again, he dispelled that myth last night. He thrived in those conditions.
    To be fair to you, that's not really a misconception, prior to this year he's played very outside roles, there is a good reason that he had forward classification last year and it's because he was playing an outside half forward flank role.

    He's just flat out gone to another level this year though, he's the guy who has benefited most from Libba's injury this year as he's picked up a much more inside role as a result. Bont playing forward so much is also helping this factor. I still question if he can sustain this but we're getting awfully close to a half season of this kind of scoring and even some decent regression has him in the elite bracket of scoring.

    He's just a perfect example of why this game is so ridiculous to try and do, he was an absolute nothing pick heading into the season, basically priced at his highest ever averages with no reason to expect an astronomical jump in either format really. I mean he's already kicked twice as many goals this year as he had over the last two seasons combined. The hardest part is his scoring is so absurdly out of place that you can't even trade him in with any faith.

    It's probably something worth thinking about. The AFL in its infinite stupidity was so concerned about the second man up at ruck contests, they've now managed to create the very problem they've been trying to solve. By requiring teams to nominate a ruckman at every stoppage, the game slows down even more and more players get to the contest. Coming into winter, stoppages should only become more prevalent. It's like an open buffet for quality inside players with good hand skills who can take all the SC honey with effective contested possessions. As Wogi said, the reward is always higher for an effective handball from a contest than an ineffective scunge kick. Players like Oliver, Titch, Fyfe and Macrae come into their own. You've only got to look at Oliver's HB numbers over the past couple of rounds. He's also leading the league for HBs averaging 18.9. Macrae is 5th at 17.2. In terms of total clearances, the top 5 at the moment are Titch, Fyfe, Cripps, Oliver and Wines with Macrae 8th. When you look at just stoppage clearances, Titch is still number one but Macrae is 3rd.
    They've always been the best and most reliable scorers, they tend to be harder to tag as well as they still get first hands and you just make everything contested as a result. The cluster**** that is the holding the ball rules also makes clangers less likely in tight as even when you handball to an opponent they're just as likely to throw it away as they are to get an actual disposal so the clanger can be negated.

    It's funny how easy this year was in hindsight. Simply getting Oliver instead of the Crouch/Kelly failure (or any of the back premiums and an extra rookie), not picking Billings (**** you) and not picking Goldstein (again...) and you're in the top 100 with the cookie cutter side that most ran with outside those key selections!

    The interesting stat is Danger is nowhere to be seen and as @Hodges pointed out, his clearance numbers are way down this year, albeit he's still ranked 9th for contested possessions.

    I might have to start rethinking the Danger trade in.

    Also, having regard to the above, as a bit of a smoky worth considering, Ben Cunnington is currently ranked in the top 5 for all those stats and has a five round average of 112sc with a season average of just over 100 after a slow start. Price $515k. Given most midfields are already loaded, I doubt many would go there unless they were looking for a bailout. Currently in a grand total of 778 teams.
    Cunnington is having a big year but even with his monster games he's averaging borderline low end premium numbers.

    Danger is basically confirming all the reasons that people didn't want to start him this year. Ablett and Kelly are stealing midfield time. He's spending more time in an outfield midfield role when he does play midfield, he's spending a lot of time forward and he's missed games with injury related to his back injury. It's basically all the research in preseason coming to the most likely outcome (if only we'd known about Adelaide's preseason plan of "hamstrings are meant to be snapped"...)
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  7. #65
    Fort Kickass Ben the Gooner's Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    FWIW, Tim Kelly spent a lot of time forward yesterday.

    Looks like heíll end up in the Danger/Ablett/Menegola rotation which probably opens up more midfield time for Danger (4 blokes through 3 midfield slots as opposed to 3 through 2).

    I was happy enough with Danger yesterday. For a reasonably innocuous game, he got plenty of it and got plenty of umpire/CD love which is a factor that canít be understated.
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  8. #66
    FFC Football Operations Manager Hodges's Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    Danger had one of the most infuriating games yesterday as a non-owner. Two free kicks given away in the ruck, which go down as clangers on the stats sheet. One of which directly resulted in a Smack goal. End result? He lost 1 SC point for each FA. And numerous hack kicks and handballs that put teammates under immediate pressure and often resulted in turnovers, all called either effective (which makes zero ****ing sense) or contested so that it didnt matter. He legit should have scored a 90 at best yesterday, was one of the most umpire/CD gifted tons you will ever see.

    And @Wogitalia I think looking at Macraes form last year there were definitely signs of a scoring jump its just that no one looked into it. Its the issue when a player moves from back or forward classification to just mid, everyone immediately writes that player off as theres an assumption they arent as good an option as the guys who have always been just mid classification. Macrae was the 11th highest points scoring player last year (18th by average). 10th highest scoring and 16th by average if you sort just by mids - and thats with his end of season average of 106.9. He averaged 111 over the final 12 games of the season, so he was genuinely underpriced, had shown half a season of improved scoring, coming into his prime and coming off a 22 game season and is generally fairly durable.

    I dont think the lesson is "Macrae is an example of why this game is ridiculous". I think the lesson is that you should look at all options and consider, not just the popular mid ones. A closer look at Macrae might have resulted in people taking him.
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  9. #67
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    Quote Originally Posted by Hodges View Post
    Danger had one of the most infuriating games yesterday as a non-owner. Two free kicks given away in the ruck, which go down as clangers on the stats sheet. One of which directly resulted in a Smack goal. End result? He lost 1 SC point for each FA. And numerous hack kicks and handballs that put teammates under immediate pressure and often resulted in turnovers, all called either effective (which makes zero ****ing sense) or contested so that it didnt matter. He legit should have scored a 90 at best yesterday, was one of the most umpire/CD gifted tons you will ever see.

    And @Wogitalia I think looking at Macraes form last year there were definitely signs of a scoring jump its just that no one looked into it. Its the issue when a player moves from back or forward classification to just mid, everyone immediately writes that player off as theres an assumption they arent as good an option as the guys who have always been just mid classification. Macrae was the 11th highest points scoring player last year (18th by average). 10th highest scoring and 16th by average if you sort just by mids - and thats with his end of season average of 106.9. He averaged 111 over the final 12 games of the season, so he was genuinely underpriced, had shown half a season of improved scoring, coming into his prime and coming off a 22 game season and is generally fairly durable.

    I dont think the lesson is "Macrae is an example of why this game is ridiculous". I think the lesson is that you should look at all options and consider, not just the popular mid ones. A closer look at Macrae might have resulted in people taking him.
    I think the biggest factor has been Libba getting hurt and Bont playing forward, the impossible part is that you couldn't predict either of those happening based on the preseason games or information coming out at the time. Even the 111 average is at the low end of premium and not really a big breakout to be going on as far as a pick. Compare it with Crouch or Kelly for example and he's 10 odd points off their pace (both disaster picks who looked like great picks for comparison).

    Zorko another who beats him over that period and his average in that time was a "concern" for starting him (that proved right). Speaking of Zorko, anyone thinking of jumping on him?

    Starting Macrae on the evidence available, against the other options, would have seemed absurd because he was coming off his best average and even using an inflated half season average he still falls at the low end premium level.

    It's odd, Macrae and Curnow are the only two "oddities" in the top 10 midfielders. Everyone else garnered heavy attention with 5 of them in at least 35% of teams. Basically if you picked Selwood, Oliver or Treloar, of the realistic options (or Macrae for the time travelers) then you're golden.

    Still, rucks was the bigger position. NicNat's scoring has just been absurd and was another "I don't know how you could pick it" picks. You tell me he's going to play 50% TOG and outscore basically everyone with no preseason and serious doubt he'd even play round 1 and I'd laugh at the outrageousness of the comment. Grundy was "predictable" that he could do it but was a hard sell as well.
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  10. #68
    FFC Football Operations Manager Hodges's Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    It only seems absurd because you didnt consider him a possibilty. Kelly, Oliver, Crouch were all super popular options yet all three had a single season of premium scoring to their name and all coming off their best seasons ever. And only Kelly had gone above the "low end premium" that you have placed at 111. Cripps best average was 107.6 so he hadnt ever hit the low end premo mark yet he was in the vast majority of teams. Yet all these guys were super popular.

    The point im making is that people look for what they want to look for. Everyone starts with those guys because they are the perceived gun mids of the comp (even though a guy like Cripps was only potential), so you talk yourself into starting those guys. No one was looking at Macrae at all, but if you had then he might have been seen as worthwhile selection. Cognitive bias basically.
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