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Thread: Round 9 Trades

  1. #46
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    Quote Originally Posted by Notorious_29 View Post
    Sounds like the approach I took with Docherty and Titch last year.

    It's almost safer to bring him in if you have the cash to save your season from being over if he does happen to continue scoring like this. The downside to grabbing him is little, the downside to not grabbing him is potentially huge.

    He does face Jacobs from North twice before the season is over, something worth considering.

    I've picked him up in RDT, will probably leave in SC due to 99 other more pressing issues.
    One massive difference between Macrae and Doch/Titch last year is popularity though. Doch was in basically every side last year from the start because he was as obvious a pick as Laird this year and Titch was in probably 75% of relevant teams (lot lower in SC here but elsewhere he was super popular in that format also). Macrae might be in 50% of relevant teams but he's in almost none of the teams behind the top 1000 that are relevant.

    The reason I mention it is that is your downside risk, if Doch failed last year it impacted every team and you just lost a chunk of cash bringing him in but scored the same as everyone else. Macrae is rare enough that you lose the cash and are actually in the minority on the points front.

    The likelihood is that even if he regresses he's probably still going to be close to premium numbers the way he's playing so in that regard the downside is limited but his exposure is also pretty limited. Of course the win if he does sustain it is also massive and amplified by that rarity factor.

    Experience says he's far less likely to sustain it than he is to drop back into the pack or even to something approaching his own averages but there is generally someone who sustains it each year.

    On a positive for me... I have none of the guys in contention to "sustain it" right now, so that's great... said no one, ever.
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  3. #47
    Moderator Notorious_29's Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    Yeah that's a fair point, he is approaching 20% ownership in RDT and about 15% in SC, so he's becoming less unique by the week.

    I suppose the point I was trying to put across is that hoping someone regresses back to normal scoring can be dangerous also. I'll add I agree the chances are he will came back to earth at some point, but if he doesn't you're down shit creek.

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    FFC Senior Assistant Coach Robbo's Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    Thinking of upgrading Doedee in RDT, can move him to a MID (with crouch injured i need one). Looking at my options it seems Danger or Crouch are the 2 main choices (possibly Hunter?). Danger has dropped a lot in price and seems like the smart buy as if he can find any form it's a steal, but is paddy a bit sore/injured? Oliver possibly who i'm leaning towards. Any thoughts?
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    Danger is very much a crossroads pick this week.

    The question is can he replicate what he did last year where he averaged 114sc to Rd 8 and then went on a rampage to average 150sc for the rest of the season.

    His numbers this year are eerily similar and for those that worry that he's spending too much time forward, his heat map tells a slightly different story.



    While he is spending time up forward, he's basically roaming between FF and defensive 50 and interestingly in terms of total disposals, he's leaning slightly towards defence. GAJ back in the side helps as I reckon there's a better case for GAJ to play forward. Geelong's upcoming draw is as a good as it gets (Ess, Carl, GCS) and even with North after that I can see Jacobs going to Jelwood.

    I was pretty much locked in to taking Oliver this week but Danger is difficult to resist.
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    FFC Senior Assistant Coach hendo8888's Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    The way I look at it, if you told me at the start of the year I could get Dangerfield, who was coming off a 137, who only had 1 game under 100 all year, who had played the last 7 games, for just over 600k, I would have bought him 100 times out of 100.
    If you then told me that I didn't buy him, because Oliver was 45k cheaper, and averaged 1.2ppg more. I would have said I was insane.
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  9. #51
    FFC Football Operations Manager Hodges's Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    That heat map is definitely interesting, just looking at footywire and the stats tell a slightly different story.



    Looks to be slightly down across all categories at the moment. Marks and clearances the main two, especially centre clearances. The fact that stoppage clearances is largely the same points to the current role change imo, he is starting outside the square but getting involved in the midfield after that. The fact that his metres gained has stayed the same, clearances have dropped and bounces have risen tells me he is being used as a receive ball and go player, rather than the dig it out himself and go guy he was last year.

    Like you said though, his first and second half of last year were wildly different, and im comparing first half stats to full season stats, so its going to be a fair way off. There are two things giving me pause for targeting Danger this week. The first is that he played the Pies last week who leak midfield points, want to see him back it up. Secondly is his BE of 119 means waiting wont burn you from a cash perspective. The fact that he only attended 6 CBs last week concerns me tbh, agree that Ablett should open him up to play more mid but it didnt happen last week.

    Edit: worth mentioning again, but Dangers last 3 scores vs Essendon have been 112, 99 and 99. Both 99s were 2016. 2015 he put up a 157 vs them and 2014 a 71 (if you care about going that far back, I think its not really relevant). So although the Bombers are rubbish right now, this hasnt been a team he has typically torn apart.
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  11. #52
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    hmmm, good points fellas, if Danger bounces back like last year, it will be an incredible pickup. I should never rule out talent like his, but i just don't get the feeling he will have that sharp pick-up late season like last year... in saying that i don't see Oliver climbing to a 115+ ave or anything either, so i'm basically just getting what i pay for there.
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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    Back injury, hamstring injury, playing forward too much, Ablett in the side... those are the negatives.

    Dangerfield and cheap. That's the positives.

    For mine my bigger issue is getting Danger means dumping either Crouch (injured and wish I'd given the hamstring thing more thought...) or Kelly, who is scoring similarly and still making cash.

    So I'll continue to address my far greater issues and hope that Danger doesn't fire So expect a 180+ this weekend.
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  13. #54
    FFC Football Operations Manager Hodges's Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    Forget Danger, Macrae is the new must have. What is going on with that bloke this year!
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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    Pls go big Murray and Yeo

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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    Macrae is a maniac at the moment

    36 touches (only 12 kicks, what could have been!) and 13 tackles!
    TEX WALKER. that is all.

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  18. #57
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    Quote Originally Posted by Crow-mo View Post
    Macrae is a maniac at the moment

    36 touches (only 12 kicks, what could have been!) and 13 tackles!
    To be fair in those shitty conditions all those crappy little handballs to teammates that get to be effective contested possessions are worth way more than hack kicks that turn it over half the time, real hard to kick it long enough to get effective kicks on anything but clear leads.

    The tag disappeared really quick which was interesting, he got a couple of early handballs and the Crows seemed to go with the "**** it, not working" move, was interesting given it seemed to be a hard tag in the first few minutes.
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    Moderator Notorious_29's Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    The bloke is in scintillating form, can do no wrong at the moment.

    Has the pies next week who don't really tag.

    145/141, 151/189, 155/156, 144/177 in his last four, ridiculous really.
    Last edited by Notorious_29; 19th May 2018 at 09:04 AM.

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    FFC Assistant Coach lifelike_'s Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    He's probably been close to our most consistent player since the Gold Coast game in his second season where he had 43 touches.

    He's an incredible footballer, I still don't think that the wider football community are giving him the credit he deserves. He's been doing this sort of stuff (albeit at a slightly lower level) for years. If he played for a Collingwood or Richmond he'd be just about one of the biggest names in the game.

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  22. #60
    Fort Kickass Ben the Gooner's Avatar
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    Re: Round 9 Trades

    Absolutely love watching him play, fantastic footballer.
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