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Thread: Round 8 trades

  1. #16
    FFC Senior Assistant Coach hendo8888's Avatar
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    Re: Round 8 trades

    I can afford to go Stephenson and Finlayson for Tom Mitchell and Josh Kennedy, if I decide to go down that road. Otherwise, I'd look at a Ronke, to be ready for Dangerfield/Crouch in the next couple weeks.
    My forward line is becoming an issue, but I kind of just have my head in the sand on that one.
    Buddy, Petracca and Walters all probably could/should be traded. Really annoying, as I went out of my way to stack my forward line early, so I didn't have to worry about it. Now 3 of the 6 are gone/struggling.
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    FFC Senior Coach Elvs1's Avatar
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    Re: Round 8 trades

    Given the good scoring of the rookie backs, even thou a few were down this round and the uncertainty of the forwards, I've been prioritising my mid field for upgrades.
    Target is to get 7 premiums + Kelly on the field.

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  4. #18
    FFC Senior Assistant Coach hendo8888's Avatar
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    Re: Round 8 trades

    Finlayson has a BE of 86, so it makes sense to cut him loose this week. He's made 230k and now has 2 games in the 60s in a row.
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    FFC Football Operations Manager Hodges's Avatar
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    Re: Round 8 trades

    Quote Originally Posted by Wogitalia View Post
    On @Hodges comment re: Petracca (share the role concerns fwiw) but I think the 95 mark is certainly around what to expect at F6 this year. At this point you've got Gray, Heeney and McLean who every decent team already has or will have in the next couple of weeks that are significantly better.

    Then you've got Westhoff, Buddy, Robinson and Acres above 100ppg right now. All of them could well maintain it but I wouldn't be backing it personally, Robbo generally misses a few games and has a stinker or two. Buddy ditto is already missing games, carrying an injury that may not heal all season and trending downward after a boom start. Acres could be great but would think he'll trend downward as well. Then you have Hogan and Darling that are above 96 and below 100, Hogan looks great to be fair but he's also a KPF and Melbourne have had a very cruisy start to the season (his scoring against the Hawks, Geelong and Richmond is significantly lower than against North, Brisbane and St Kilda. He's also got major durability concerns. Admittedly he has Carlton and the Suns for his next two so not expecting any drop off yet but it does get a bit harder after that. Darling, see above but basically the exact same story.

    So realistically I think by seasons end the 95 mark is going to be right in play. I'd hazard to guess that 1 of those other 4 averaging 100+ might sustain it, which still leaves likely two guys in the 95 range, if they cost you no trades to get from here then they're fine. The bigger factor is that everyone should already have Heeney and McLean as the two most obvious starting picks there were and most should have Gray by after his bye at the latest because of his scoring capacity. So really one can afford to carry a 95 or two unless all of the above four keep going or someone else joins them, personally I'd like more information on them.

    This isn't really Petracca based as much as general strategy, Petracca is set to plummet and if you have no faith in him then trading him does make sense this week for sure. I'm personally going to upgrade around and hope he can at least be a 90+ guy from here so that I can make the leap if needed. Billings unfortunately is in the same basket and I also have the Goldy train wreck to clean up. Ultimately I'm praying that all those guys can be 90ish scorers from here as a median result given their class as players so I can scramble them with hopefully two decent downgrade moves. The word praying is never a good one though
    Yeah I was struggling to work out predictions for guys so did that massive writeup in the forward premos thread. I think Gray, Heeney, McLean, Buddy and Walters (minus the injury game) will be good for 100 averages this year. Hogan is averaging 98 including a 36 injury game, so he is basically a 100 guy as it stands. I dont think his scoring dropped significantly vs those top teams, he got a 94 vs the Hawks in a 10 goal drubbing, and an 81 vs the Tigers in a similar blowout. Those are very good scores for a KPF in heavy losses, its those sort of games where a Tom Lynch type would score 40 - the scores that stop them becoming premiums. Your Buddys and JJKs who have managed to get that premium average find ways to score well when a game isnt going their way. KPF are always going to be inconsistent, but I think Hogan has shown that with his role and talent, he can be a proper premo this year.

    I doubt Robbo continues at this level, same for Hoff TBH. Both guys have long histories of not quite getting to that level. You also have Toby Greene in the mix if he gets healthy, Lambert if he continues (100+ average over 5 games), and then breakout guys like Darling, Taranto, Acres and Parfitt that you cant really predict.

    Point being, I think there is enough depth in the forwards that you wont want to carry a 90-95 guy at F6. Reason I said 90-95 in my original post is because I think Petracca very much falls at the bottom end of that spectrum. If you already have Devon Smith going at ~93-95, can you afford to carry two bottom end keepers?
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    FFC Bag Carrier Wheedus's Avatar
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    Re: Round 8 trades

    I'd be inclined to hang on to Finlayson. It's all well and good to use a break even as a trigger for the trade but you still have to consider the underlying scoring. He's been putting up close to premo numbers. Last week's score was due to Cameron being out and having to play forward at times. Once Cameron is back, two things will happen. Keeffe goes out and Finlayson goes back to his usual slooty role. Loop him if you can this week (eg if you've got Murphy) but I wouldn't trade.
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  8. #21
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    Re: Round 8 trades

    It also sounds like Lobb may be back this week, pushing Patton to the forward line.

    I'm still inclined to trade Finlayson though, did his job.
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    FFC Bag Carrier Wheedus's Avatar
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    Re: Round 8 trades

    Finalayson's D/M DPP is also valuable and he could be a vital swingman / cover later in the season
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  10. #23
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    Re: Round 8 trades

    Im still torn on Finlayson. This week theres a clear reason for the poor score, lack of forwards meant his role changed. The previous week however is less clear. He only played 68% TOG vs the Lions which is pretty low for a back, but he has three games of 68-69% TOG this season, the other four games being 74-79%. Metres gained were down a fair bit, maybe because the Lions didnt go forward too often? Hard to pinpoint why he dipped.

    With that in mind, im leaning towards trading. Murray is not that far off average wise (50 points difference total points), and with Cole and Naughton looking like great starting options I think we can afford to move Finlayson on.

    Edit: The DPP thing is the main thing giving me pause though. If you were to keep one of these guys as season long cover, it would be the guy with DPP every time.
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  12. #24
    FFC Senior Coach Elvs1's Avatar
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    Re: Round 8 trades

    Finlayson's contested possessions, intercept possessions and R50 have been way down the past 2 games.

    The game on the weekend when he was down back he looked very indecisive/nervous, some of his kicks looked like he was being tentative and just trying to nurse the ball to his team mate not drilling them like he has been, also was noticeable he wasn't as contested at the ball.

    Think this week's match is a good one for him, half backs have been scoring ok against the eagles.
    But he's done job as a cash cow, and I don't see him becoming a keeper.

    Don't think there is a right answer for everyone, depends on what the extra cash does for you and who will be taking his spot on the field, pity he plays early and can't see how another rookie goes.

    In RDT I traded him out last week, was never going to be a keeper there and not scoring much more than most other rookies.

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    FFC General Manager twarby's Avatar
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    Re: Round 8 trades

    probably looking at a defender or forward this week but really not liking any of the options available

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    Super Moderator Bunga's Avatar
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    Re: Round 8 trades

    Quote Originally Posted by twarby View Post
    probably looking at a defender or forward this week but really not liking any of the options available
    Forward - Kane Lambert maybe?

    488,900K currently - last 4 scores :- 12,77, 119 & 119.

    Seems to be getting more midfield time with Dusty playing more fwd.
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    Re: Round 8 trades

    Tigers just finished 5 MCG games in a row, although I think they're the best team I think you're buying high with a lot of their players.


    Ill need to check BEs but probably leaning towards Hurley or Hurn.

    Forwards I probably want to finish my team can wait
    Last edited by twarby; 8th May 2018 at 08:42 PM.

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    Re: Round 8 trades

    One thing to note with Petracca is that Angus Brayshaw has moved into the midfield over the past two weeks, attending 42 centre bounces during that time after attending 0 against Richmond. (scoring 78/78 and 113/100 in those two games).

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  19. #29
    FFC Midpricer scrotumscragger's Avatar
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    Re: Round 8 trades

    Move Finlayson back to the backs, move doedoo on (BE 82), Danger comes in, and also shift Garlett to Spargo, which leaves enough cash for Banfield to Crouch next week.

    Kelly situation has began to severely piss me off- what was supposed to be 1-2weeks will be 6+. I guess though that most people will be close to finishing their mids once Kelly returns, and he should be reasonably unique for the run home.

    Hopefully there's no nasty surprises with the final teams this week as I have a fifteen hour flight back from Canada and wont be able to access the net.
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    Re: Round 8 trades

    And speaking of GWS giving suspect information abound injuries, have we heard much of an update on Toby Greene? I feel like he has fallen off the face of the earth. Was considering him the week he was named out actually so lucky I dodged that bullet.
    Also been offered him in my draft league for Ziebell but it doesn’t look like he’s back any time soon.

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