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Thread: Round 7 Trades

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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Round 7 Trades

    Don't really have much planned yet, did an upgrade last week which means I probably have to find a bit of cash before I'm capable of doing much else unless I pull the pin on Petracca.

    In terms of rookies on the bubble, I think Cole is the only one of any real note. Seen a total of 0 minutes of him so far but has has two solid scores of 76/80 DT. That said, looking a little deeper into his DT stats and he had 10 tackles which equals to half of his points. He also had 5 frees for in his 12 touches. Now those might have been off the back of his hard tackling pressure but it's not something you can bank on, nor can you with his tackle numbers which makes the 80 a little unrealistic based off of those numbers imo. On the flip side, in his first game of the year against Carlton he had 19 touches, 2 tackles and 1 free for so he found another way to score well so that helps the cause. Don't like paying the premium price but possibly worth it? For mine, it will be cashing in on Naughton given Murphy is dead weight and Doedee/Murray are delivering good numbers. Finlayson isn't far off cashing in either, stuck in my midfield though so I can't do too much with that.

    Few of first game rookies hit the scene well in Spargo, Mutch and Ronke. I didn't see either game so I don't know how they looked and I know nothing about either of them so would love to hear what everyone thinks. Are any of them looking like strong targets/anyone we can go early on? Ronke scored 78, Spargo scored 75, and a 71.


    As per last week, I mentioned Deledio who proceeded to score 116 and rise 65.4k. He's still at a reasonable price in RDT at 556k and a breakeven of 3, any interest? For mine it would be for Petracca but the biggest concern is his durability now. He plays a ripping fantasy game (haven't seen him play in the past few weeks) where he racks up plenty of marks to boost his score up. Taranto is the other I mentioned who scored 100, had a 44k price jump and with a growing breakeven of 62 now.


    As for issues I have that probably apply to others -

    Holman - Appears to be the biggest scrub whenever I put him on the field, which is twice this year for 29 and 30. Feels like he relies on tackles to score well for the most part which he only had 3 in the two trash scoring games. Dropped 4k and a breakeven of 35 this week.

    Barry - Had a great opportunity to come into the side being one of 2 that didn't play in the SANFL match and injuries in the best 22 opened up a position. How did he repay this luck? By handing it straight back I dare say with just 11 touches and 2 points. Hope I'm wrong but based off the stats I'm guessing he goes straight out which is a shame as I thought he looked alright in the pre season. If he does go out, then I also wouldn't be surprised if he has a stint in the SANFL and I'm not sure how long it's really worth holding onto him given he's failed to deliver so far this year.

    Giles-Langdon - Managed just 33 but a knee injury being the big concern. Hopefully nothing series, we'll know further tomorrow but if he's out for an extended period it's a big blow given he's not worth much at all.

    Murphy - Was the traveling emg which resulted in him not playing SANFL (SANFL side played Friday and Crows Saturday). In a way it's a good sign meaning he's close but on the other hand it's now a month since he last played footy and will probably have to go back to the seconds. Poholke struggled and will go out but the other two guys who have come in since his hammy in Gallucci and Knight have added a bit to the side (Gallucci looked really good actually who to date has failed to impress and Knight is running plenty and adding pressure even though he isn't getting a lot of it it right now). Betts is a chance to return and would come in before Murphy so if that's the case, he'll be back in the SANFL having to re-earn his position in the side which might be waiting for some poor form from one of the other guys mentioned.

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    FFC General Manager twarby's Avatar
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    Re: Round 7 Trades

    I'm thinking of upgrading Zorko to a rookie. Yes upgrading.
    What a disaster


    In all seriousness, is this the week to get Danger? I've got the funds to move a Brayshaw type to him, I liked the look of Cole today, his tackling was really noticeable and seemed a popular pick in pre season. Will look at bringing him in too
    Last edited by twarby; 30th April 2018 at 12:21 AM.

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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Round 7 Trades

    As someone that brought Danger at top dollar thinking I was getting in before others had a chance it's backfired. Don't see the point in jumping on until he has a couple of strong games but that's more from a DT perspective where he now has a 154 breakeven after dropping 32k - dare say it's not far off in SC.

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Round 7 Trades

    Danger can wait a couple of weeks after another poor game, which is a nice change for anyone targeting him but not quite there yet.

    Duman is the other rookie on the bubble who has scored alright and/or doesn't have a significant premium (Poholke, Cole, Mirra, Weideman, Bailey, Guelfi are all in play at 175k down though).

    Ronke looked great to be honest, forward pressure was exceptional and hit the score board, literally can't ask any more than that and Horse, as much as I hate him, has a really good track record of playing kids when they play well (except Newman, he ****ing hates Newman) and giving them a decent chance in the team. We have Robinson, Cunningham (I know I always say this), Marsh and Fox who he outperformed by a significant amount this week to go out before he should. His JS isn't great and his role is going to be very random scoring wise but he came in for Buddy and isn't anything like him. Fox was clearly in for Towers, exact same role, and Robinson was in for Hanners. Ronke did enough for at least another game and probably a pass on a down week. Not a great rookie option though because of the JS and the fact he did come in for Buddy who is obviously coming back in the instant he is ready.

    Worpel also looked good to me, big bodied kid who did plenty of nice things. He basically looked to be filling the Shiels role for the most part (no idea how long he is out for?) and looked solid. Probably same as Ronke, JS isn't going to be strong but Clarko also has been good at giving kids a good run if they perform.

    Spargo (cheap DPP a double bonus, didn't see but scored great), Shipley (looked really good but team is so loaded it's going to be hard to stay in it anyway when all the outs start coming back), Mutch (scored well, didn't see), Appleby (ditto), Petrucelle (scored terribly so seems unlikely he'd get another, sight unseen) and OMac (didn't look good to me but scored relatively well and as a bigtime project might get weeks anyway, also a ruck which with English peaking has added value) all debuted this round.

    Given there are 8 guys potentially there next week that round instantly looks a strong double downgrade round for those looking for one so could be worth trying to go early on one of the above if you're a double down this week position.

    Personally I'm dumping Bonner and Stephenson for probably Duman and Gray this week and will pick one next week that fits in and get Crouch or Danger but the double down might be forced next week if it falls how it looks likely to and the upgrade can wait a week, getting good rookies heading into the byes will produce more points than one extra premium score, imo, at this point in time.

    All of this is obviously prefaced on a relatively carnage free round which just doesn't feel likely at this point based on the past couple of weeks where I had two guys I had no idea were getting suspended or injured miss
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    Moderator Notorious_29's Avatar
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    Re: Round 7 Trades

    @Wogitalia - I think Dumans spot in the side is relatively safe, especially with Johnson playing so badly and Logue/Spurr injured for another 3-4 weeks at least. He's been fairly solid for someone with a smallish frame, reads the play well and makes good decisions with the ball. Tom Cole was also really impressive in the derby in patches, I think he's just a little expensive for me considering I'm hardly making any cash off rookie downgrades at the moment. Ronke and Spargo both passed the eye test and should get a good run you'd think with both teams having great wins, think I'd almost prefer to wait for them next week.

    Danger has a breakeven of 150 SC this week, he scored 196 and 163 against GWS in 2017. Think I'm going to take a risk and bring him in maybe slightly early this week. Plays on the Friday night so if he goes berserk you get the double score advantage as well. I just feel like he's due.

    I'll also have to deal with Hogan probably this week . Actually thinking I might roll the dice on a Robinson/Deledio POD type pick. Just copping injury after injury at the moment.

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    FFC Midpricer scrotumscragger's Avatar
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    Re: Round 7 Trades

    Holding Kelly is killing my scoring, given the spud rookie scores I've copped. I'll move Holman on this week, bring Finlayson into the mids, Cole into the backline, and Deledio for Walters. Dangerfield should drop in value again this week, and Crouch should be ripe for the picking in a couple of weeks, so happy to hold on upgrades for a while.
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    Moderator Athomas's Avatar
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    Re: Round 7 Trades

    Walters in all formats will be fun. Might not get a chance to upgrade anyone when I am trading out injured players ever week

    Kelly, Buddy, Walters.
    At least Walters was my own fault as he has an injury history haha
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    Re: Round 7 Trades

    Been thinking about midfield upgrades so far this round. It seems like teams are so similar this year, everyone has or will have Dusty, Danger, Titch, Cripps, Coniglio and Fyfe. Those 6 are in the top 9 SC mids by average, Danger the lowest. Outside Danger (21.4%), the lowest ownership percentage is Cripps at 32.5%. The rest range from 41% to 62%. That means those last two midfield spots are super important to get right. I have Oliver who is 12th in average and has 10% ownership, leaving one spot left. A lot of guys will have gone Zerrett or will be getting Matt Crouch. I was fairly set on Zerrett but given how important that spot is, his scoring this year (and late last year) is a concern. Crouch has less issues there but is R14 bye, sharing it with

    The guy that hasnt had much talk so far is Macrae. Averaging 122, 4 of his 6 scores have been over 120 including two over 140. The caveat is he has played Carlton (141) and Essendon (131) who give up big scores, but he also got a 120 in the opening round thumping by the Giants - has shown he can score well in losses. He has a decent run coming up, GC this week at Metricon, Lions at Etihad (162 and 121 last two vs Lions) before Adelaide in Adelaide.

    Looking at his stats, he has been a consistent 26-27.5 disposal getting for the past 4 seasons, this year he is up to nearly 31. Disposal efficiency is 75% compared to 77% last year and a career average of 74%, so no improvement there. Marks have gone up from ~5 per game over last 4 seasons to 6.3 this year. Tackle numbers are the same. Inside 50s are up to 4.8 from a career average of 3.4 and clearances are up to 5.2 from career average of 3.2 - centre clearances are also up.

    So to me it looks like he is just getting a couple more link possessions per game, while being more effective at clearance work. Which checks out, because the Dogs gameplan this year involves a lot more short kicks and retaining possession. Natural improvement as well, he is coming into his prime. I think it would be sustainable - the gameplan suits him and with the roof at Etihad during winter, his marking game shouldnt drop off too much (9 of the remaining 16 at Etihad).

    Anyone considering him? Ownership currently at 5.3% makes him a fantastic POD - providing he scores better than Zerrett or Crouch.
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    FFC Bag Carrier Wheedus's Avatar
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    Re: Round 7 Trades

    I reckon we've missed the boat on Macrae and he's now overpriced. Doubt he can maintain the average from here.
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    FFC Senior Assistant Coach hendo8888's Avatar
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    Re: Round 7 Trades

    A lot of rookies near the bubble of trade outs this week.
    Finlayson 57
    Stephenson 56
    Murray 54
    Coffield (who had a 24 this week) BE 54
    Holman (whose had 2 games of 30s in the last 3) BE 35
    Richards BE 41
    Banfield BE 41

    Holman is super annoying. He's had 4 games above 82, but is only 263k, yet has a BE similar to his recent games (and lost money this week). Role has fallen off a cliff. Barely even saw him on Saturday night. Guess we might as well hold him for 1 more week, while the 88 exists.

    Parker is becoming a concern. 4 games under 100 in a row.
    Buddy probably still out.
    Walters out.
    Petracca possibly out.

    A lot of things to think about this week.
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    FFC Football Operations Manager Hodges's Avatar
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    Re: Round 7 Trades

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheedus View Post
    I reckon we've missed the boat on Macrae and he's now overpriced. Doubt he can maintain the average from here.
    Thing is, he is only 8.3k more than his starting price. Puts him at around a 107-108 average by price.
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    FFC Football Operations Manager Nothing's Avatar
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    Re: Round 7 Trades

    It's an easy week for me.



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    FFC Senior Coach Elvs1's Avatar
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    Re: Round 7 Trades

    Quote Originally Posted by Hodges View Post
    Been thinking about midfield upgrades so far this round. It seems like teams are so similar this year, everyone has or will have Dusty, Danger, Titch, Cripps, Coniglio and Fyfe. Those 6 are in the top 9 SC mids by average, Danger the lowest. Outside Danger (21.4%), the lowest ownership percentage is Cripps at 32.5%. The rest range from 41% to 62%. That means those last two midfield spots are super important to get right. I have Oliver who is 12th in average and has 10% ownership, leaving one spot left. A lot of guys will have gone Zerrett or will be getting Matt Crouch. I was fairly set on Zerrett but given how important that spot is, his scoring this year (and late last year) is a concern. Crouch has less issues there but is R14 bye, sharing it with

    The guy that hasnt had much talk so far is Macrae. Averaging 122, 4 of his 6 scores have been over 120 including two over 140. The caveat is he has played Carlton (141) and Essendon (131) who give up big scores, but he also got a 120 in the opening round thumping by the Giants - has shown he can score well in losses. He has a decent run coming up, GC this week at Metricon, Lions at Etihad (162 and 121 last two vs Lions) before Adelaide in Adelaide.

    Looking at his stats, he has been a consistent 26-27.5 disposal getting for the past 4 seasons, this year he is up to nearly 31. Disposal efficiency is 75% compared to 77% last year and a career average of 74%, so no improvement there. Marks have gone up from ~5 per game over last 4 seasons to 6.3 this year. Tackle numbers are the same. Inside 50s are up to 4.8 from a career average of 3.4 and clearances are up to 5.2 from career average of 3.2 - centre clearances are also up.

    So to me it looks like he is just getting a couple more link possessions per game, while being more effective at clearance work. Which checks out, because the Dogs gameplan this year involves a lot more short kicks and retaining possession. Natural improvement as well, he is coming into his prime. I think it would be sustainable - the gameplan suits him and with the roof at Etihad during winter, his marking game shouldnt drop off too much (9 of the remaining 16 at Etihad).

    Anyone considering him? Ownership currently at 5.3% makes him a fantastic POD - providing he scores better than Zerrett or Crouch.
    He's actually my target this week, not sure I have the funds to get there thou.
    I've had him in RDT for most of the year and he looks great.

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    FFC Bag Carrier Wheedus's Avatar
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    Re: Round 7 Trades

    Quote Originally Posted by Elvs1 View Post
    He's actually my target this week, not sure I have the funds to get there thou.
    I've had him in RDT for most of the year and he looks great.
    I've got $485k to spend but still leaning Zerrett at this stage.

    One thing certainly going for Macrae is his bye but Zerrett's also works as well in terms of balance of premos in the MIDs.
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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Round 7 Trades

    Isn't Zerrett not really a top end premium in SC like he is in DT? For memory he's a 110 SC avg which you can kind of do better than - he's still a good buy and probably a bottom end premium but not really a must have in SC whereas in DT I think him getting back to his form has him as a top 8 midfielder.

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