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Thread: 2018 Planning

  1. #1
    FFC Bag Carrier Wheedus's Avatar
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    2018 Planning

    Wasn't sure whether to call this the "Way too early 2018 planning thread" but given we're into October and mid trade period, I thought I'd kick it off...

    Devon Smith is worth some consideration. Should retain FWD status and based on an avg of 80sc over 16 games will be priced at around $430k. That's pretty awkward so you'd be picking him as a premo but the Bombers have clearly made him a priority and he should get better opportunities. He's hitting the sweet spot in terms of age and experience. His best avg was 91sc over 21 games in 2014 (third year at the Giants) but he had a good run if scores in Rds 5-8 this year (avg 96sc) before injuring his knee. Junior numbers were massive so he has the chops. Durability is the main concern (12 and 16 over the last two years).

    This from the Hun today:

    But it is what he did as a TAC Cup midfielder that is mouth-watering for Essendon.They need pure midfielders who can also kick goals and in his final year he blew the competition apart for the Geelong Falcons.
    Champion Data says he averaged 27 possessions, two goals and 140 ranking points in that year.
    He confirmed yesterday it was playing as a bone fide midfielder.
    “It was 90 per cent midfield and 10 per cent forward,” Smith said.
    “That’s how Essendon sees me playing and why they recruited me — from my TAC Cup stuff — playing purely as a mid and resting forward.”
    Last edited by Wheedus; 13th October 2017 at 12:21 PM.
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    FFC Senior Coach Elvs1's Avatar
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    Re: 2018 Planning

    Smith is definitely high on my radar if fwd listed (can't see him not being).
    He comes across as a player that would love racking up possessions.

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: 2018 Planning

    Smith will be a preseason must watch.

    If midfield is his primary role then he's a go, if he's stuck on the HFF still then he's an 80-95 type prospect and given his durability and that he's already priced at the low end of that range I'm not overly keen.

    Midfield role and he quickly jumps to a 95-110 type prospect for mine and the upside potential starts to quickly trump his terrible durability. Bombers already have enough HFF talent I think that he shouldn't be doing anything more than resting there if his body can handle a midfield workload, so I expect this is the more likely outcome.

    He's eerily similar to Taylor Adams leaving GWS. Gun midfielder playing on a HFF with very questionable durability and immense upside.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    Super Moderator divvydan's Avatar
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    Re: 2018 Planning

    Keeping an eye on the news about Mumford which is still to come. If he retires, Lobb should be given first ruck duties and I think he could become a genuine keeper in that role.

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: 2018 Planning

    He'd have FWD status for certain so I agree. If he gets the DPP that's even better. No reason he can't average similar or better than Nank, imo, he's got considerably more potential as well given he should rest forward most likely.

    Scored 97/101 and 69/73 in the two regular season games that Dawson Simpson also played in and 90/108 and 83/129 in the two finals without Mumford or Simpson. Very small sample size but very good SC scoring and good enough DT scoring.

    Gibbs trade happens and I reckon he has to come into really strong consideration also. Assuming Adelaide don't try and get cute he goes to a midfield with a guy more susceptible to a tag than anyone I can remember and a couple of gun inside guys that can't kick, he'd surely be their go to guy and as long as it doesn't result in too outside a role there isn't really any reason he can't go huge with his ability.

    Going to be so many interesting options.

    Rucks will be a mess, have to think Ryder will be missing a good chunk of the early season. No idea what's happening with Goldy and his future but he's very cheap compared to his best, needs a massive preseason though. Gawn is very cheap also but his durability is still awful and added a new type of injury last year. Grundy is a DT specialist and elite in that but I can't see any reason he's going to suddenly fix all his SC issues. NicNat will be cheap for sure but with the amount of setbacks he's obviously had (regardless of WC message, you don't need that kind of time to recover without some pretty big issues along the way) he's going to have risk all over, Kreuzer is very expensive for a durability mess who to be fair has actually been super durable for the last two seasons now (wtf!). Going to be a very interesting position, personally reckon it will be very hard to go past the super underpriced former super premiums in NicNat and Gawn (Lobb is a FWD and DPP would just tip him to a must start for cover, imo). Goldy could also win back my heart with a flawless preseason but I don't trust his muppet of a coach, personally would love Sydney to trade for him. Then there is always Martin, who is great as the sole ruck still but they don't seem to want that, I do wonder when they're going to try and win games as a club rather than sabotage the team by reducing the impact their best players can have but there seems no indication that is their intention next year based on this offseason period.

    Backs I think I will run a very safe option with. I'm happy to lose a bit on Doch but I believe in him, could even get midfield role from Gibbs though I'm not certain that's a good thing given his elite scoring in defense and then pick a couple of others. Yeo for mine is pretty safe also, worst case seems he'd keep last years role and be a premium with him surely being in line to replace Priddis/Mitchell in the guts which he's shown he can score in the 110+ range at for short but sustained periods. After that I like Z. Williams with the changes at GWS to improve again. Hurley should score similarly. Laird has the Smith and Lever changes but realistically Lever leaving makes him their best intercept marker and Smith leaving their only real rebounder so both changes should be strong improvements for his scoring potential. I think unless there are a ton of weird midprice options that the backs is going to be a very easy G+R option next year with rookie options deciding how many guns basically which is probably the only area that will make it hard/easy (if you have to leave one out, that's where it can get interesting).

    Mids are going to be a fun mess. If there was ever a club that stinks of premiership hangover it has to be Richmond right? Which makes Martin as probably the personification of that a harder sell but at the same time he took "the step" last year. Danger is a must start, imo. Fyfe is still underpriced after taking half the year to get going last year. Rockliff is criminally underpriced in SC but new club dramas. Crouch built into a super premium as the season went on. Beams if you could trust his body is likewise. Pendles had a pretty ordinary year. Selwood trolled hard to be super underpriced. So many options without even naming the guns who are fairly priced but have upside like Kelly or Titch (SC talk). Parker another seriously underpriced guy from injury.

    Forwards are a complete mystery. Billings is probably my top buy right now that I expect to still be a forward. Gray if fit would be a must, Wingard depending on role also could be very high on the list and there always seem to be a couple of wtf names in here that are musts unless you're an idiot (me, Macrae, hi!). This will again probably be the experimental area where there most of the top holdovers are going to be the KPF types who aren't really worth starting (Buddy, JPK, Lynch, Dixon and Cameron). If Heeney keeps this and has a full preseason he'll also be all systems go I dare say, I'm 50/50 on whether he keeps it. Papley also worth noting for Sydney if he has a good preseason, that he spent as much time in the midfield (and was effective as he was) despite the compartment syndrome which annihilated his preseason last year says what his future role would seem to be and he showed some really good scoring potential in it. C. Cameron if he goes to Brisbane and gets a prime midfield role would also seriously interest me with the way he tackles. So many options though and will probably be like last year, 1 or 2 must haves and about 20 guys who all score in around the same ball park that as long as you don't pay top dollar you'll end up all evens.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    FFC Senior Coach Elvs1's Avatar
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    Re: 2018 Planning

    Very keen on Lobb playing as ruck, especially in SC where he takes a lot of contested marks around the ground.

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    FFC Senior Coach Elvs1's Avatar
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    Re: 2018 Planning

    Aaron Young trade to GCS becomes fantasy relevant now.
    Has put up some good numbers when given a chance for Port, should keep his fwd status.

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    Super Moderator Bunga's Avatar
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    Re: 2018 Planning

    Brendon Ah Chee is someone to monitor now that he is at WCE (played just 5 games for Port last season) - might be given fwd status also. With Priddis & Mitchell retired, real opportunity for a big bodied mid to step straight into the engine room next year. Came 2nd in the Magarey medal this year, finished the year very strong - ideal pick up for WCE, hoping he has a big preseason.
    SC is FFC's number 1 fantasy game

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: 2018 Planning

    Ah Chee has some JPK potential to him, do like that pickup. Big bodied midfielder, wasting away on a forward flank, should be in the guts for the Eagles a fair bit you'd think given they didn't pick up anyone else to replace two glaring holes.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    Re: 2018 Planning

    Good news for Lobb, Mumford retiring Lobb to become main ruck.

    Adam CurleyVerified account @ADAM CurleyMedia 13m13 minutes agoMore



    Mumford staying at GWS as a ruck coach, fills vacancy left by Dean Brogan. Backed Lobb as No.1 man next year @AFL@AFLcomau

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    Super Moderator divvydan's Avatar
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    Re: 2018 Planning

    One point to note for next year. Rookie lists are still enabled, however, players on the main rookie list (A list) can play in the AFL at any time.

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: 2018 Planning

    Quote Originally Posted by divvydan View Post
    One point to note for next year. Rookie lists are still enabled, however, players on the main rookie list (A list) can play in the AFL at any time.
    In a weird way this will actually make it harder for us because we wont have the clear indicator of likely games that the elevation has previously represented.

    Good for the rookies themselves. Kind of makes the rookie list redundant though.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: 2018 Planning

    Good point, won't really get that confirmation that we have previously with the rookies.



    Been doing a bit of thinking RE the Crows midfield however I'm not sure where there are any more worth jumping on with the inclusion of Gibbs or more a case of watch and see.


    Sloane
    - Career best 107 DT average and this came off the back of him being tagged out of games big time and made to look invisible. When he went big he went big though, of his 12 100+ scores, only 3 of them were under 130 with 6 in that 143-157 range.

    Pros:
    With the inclusion of Gibbs, this could take a fair bit of pressure off of Sloane as Gibbs should be more damaging. Sloane's tackle game helps him (top of the league, #3rd on average) somewhat when he's tagged out of a game to put up a less shit score. Also seems to have got the umpires eye in the second half of the season where he was awarded a lot more free kicks.

    Might hope that the recruitment of Gibson might also see him how to better deal with a tagger as one would hope that he'd spend a lot of time on Sloane during the pre season so he can better figure out ways to get past it.

    Cons:
    Teams know he's tagable and once tagged, negated out of the game big time. Without that big burst 5 games to start the season his average would drop right down when he was given a lot more attention.


    Gibbs
    - Coming off a career best 112.1 DT and 105.4 the season before.

    Pros: Joins a much stronger team overall and one that should win a lot more games that what he would have with Carlton over the previous couple of seasons. I was wondering the other day what kind of affect it has on players scores with winning vs losing. Now the best in the game shouldn't be impacted but surely even the best score slightly better when their team is winning vs losing. With Gibb's 2017 average, there probably isn't much room for improvement but I was thinking this could help. Super durable which is always a tick.

    Cons: I'm guessing with Cripps going down last year it required him to step up more in the midfield as one of their guns. I think he'll have more support in our midfield which might mean he isn't relied upon as much as he was at Carlton which might actually hurt his scorings somewhat.


    M.Crouch
    - Breakout year where he had the most disposals in the season, averaging 33 touches a game, second behind T.Mitchell.

    Pros: Super constant, had 11 straight 30+ disposal games to finish the season with a low of 27. TOG still rather low at 77% so there's a chance he can further build his tank to play more minutes on the field.

    Cons: Outside of extra time on the field, hard to see where the upside comes from as he probably won't average much higher than 33 touches a season and even with that, his average isn't that high at 106.7 since he doesn't hit the scoreboard much, only averages 3 marks a game and 4.7 tackles a game. Maybe with a bigger tank he can tackle a little harder but it's now more of fixing up those minor things to improve his average given he finds that much of it already.


    B.Crouch - Finally got back on the park and got going as the season went on playing a career high 20 games this season (3 in the finals) and finishing with a 103.1 average.

    Pros: Once he got going he was far more constant, after his first month of footy he then averaged 110.3 for his following 16 games (including finals). Again, if he can have an injury free pre season, he's someone that should really benefit from this given his poor run to date. Getting some constancy playing at AFL level should see him continue to improve. Compared to his brother, he doesn't find as much of it but he tackles more at 6.85 a game. Think he has more talent to take his game further than Matt, just a matter of staying on the field.

    Cons: As already eluded to, it's his ability to stay on the field that's his biggest downfall. In his 5 years playing AFL footy (excluding the first where he was underaged and not allowed to play) he's played 14, 11, 0, 16 and 20 games so his body constantly breaking down on him has been a massive issue and that which will probably be the biggest risk with his selection.


    So yeah, each of these 4 could be top end premiums next season but none are clear must have picks either I don't think. I suppose it will depend a bit on the rest of the field which I haven't look at to see where these guys sit in comparison, just how I've been playing it out in my head.

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: 2018 Planning

    M. Crouch is my first picked right now for SC. His 2nd half average was absurd in both formats. Over the last 13 games (bye onward) and including finals he averaged 116/125 when his role seemed to become cemented as the main midfielder with Sloane being tagged to oblivion. The team genuinely improved on the back of it as well. That he sustained that in the finals when teams are executing their best laid plans to stop key players like him is even more reassuring. Moved another rung down the tagging list by Gibbs as well. He's a very strong DT option as well, imo. He has natural improvement, TOG improvement and just jet player potential. Has also been solid durability wise and is the type of player who generally doesn't get hurt (think the Priddis, Mitchell and Kennedy slow twitch guys).

    B. Crouch has to be an option if he can have a flawless preseason, something I say every year and never happens. Reminds me of Cotchin in that his early years have been marred by a myriad injuries but not really a lot of recurring injuries which can indicate an issue rather than just wretched luck and perhaps a bit of over-training in his youth while still growing. If he can have a perfect preseason then he becomes a very strong option, especially in DT which seems to be his more natural format.

    Gibbs and Sloane for mine are both upgrade targets, Sloane I think is more likely to still get tagged from the start which removes those massive games and I think with more Gibbs and Crouch brothers he's less likely to put up the monster scores to counter that. I think he can be a premium but I also see a risk that he falls out of the category and the upside, while present if he avoids tags, is limited. Gibbs might benefit from a better side but I see him playing a more outside role at Adelaide to best utilise his skillset but Gibbs is one of those rare players where his best "real" role is not his best fantasy role which is as an inside midfielder like he got to play at Carlton. I see the Crouch boys as the grunts on the inside and I expect Gibbs to be used as the class on the outside. He's still good in this role but he'd need a lot of better team scoring to cover for the loss of ideal role. Something that I'm happy to watch and see proven rather than paying top dollar for a guy who I'd say is strong money to either stagnate or decline. I'll watch in the preseason though because he does have the ability to Danger it at a new club if he comes in with serious motivation and the right role and go next level.

    Crows I think are set to be a pretty boring fantasy side. Laird looks a really strong starting premium defender, Jacobs is in the ruck discussion and the above 4 are all strong plays but after that I don't see much value anywhere unless a rookie gets games.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: 2018 Planning

    As for Sydney, I think will be a pretty boring side this year as far as options go... I will preface this all with the massive disclaimer that Horse making rational decisions is about as likely as getting blood from a stone so none of this is actually likely because he's cancer for our team.

    Lloyd is a decent premium defender option but his scoring did fall off noticeably when McVeigh returned and I don't see any good reason for that trend to break as long as McVeigh is fit.

    Jones will be an interesting midprice option again, he has improved remarkably each season and I still think his best and future role should be in the midfield but that is a long list of players and I'm not sure where he fits on it.

    Mills has super premium potential if he makes the midfield move which I hope he will this year, he's great in the defensive role but his midfield potential has always been next level and I'd like his ball use in the forward half a lot more, especially given we should be using McVeigh, Lloyd and Newman down back.

    Don't think any of the other backs are relevant, maybe Newman or McVeigh but think there is too much risk on both, Newman becomes interesting if Mills and/or Jones both make the midfield jump or perhaps if he does it himself, McVeigh is too much durability risk given how safe some of the other options are but I do think he can push his previous levels with a full preseason, something he hasn't had for a couple of years.

    Midfielders I think Parker is hard to resist, little over 10 points underpriced in both formats and has genuine potential to improve on his previous best. He had no preseason last year and clearly wasn't right until the mid point of the season as he built up the fitness base. Averaged 105/107 after the bye so showed he can still do it but reckon he'll be keen to really bounce back after the shocking year the team had last year with him as the personification of that.

    JPK will also start underpriced thanks to injury but his durability has been his strongest point traditionally and has become a questionmark the past couple of years with a bunch of soft tissue injuries. He never really got going last year other than a little patch in the middle. Strong track record though and starts underpriced, that's a good combo.

    Hanners is massively underpriced but there isn't a good explanation for it, he had his best ever preseason and then just had an awful season so not sure what happened there. That said, he's almost 20 points underpriced in both formats. He was terrible at the end of the season when the team was playing best but was huge in getting us going, part of me thinks he played with broken ribs for a large chunk of the season given that after a couple of games with heavy rib knocks and great scoring for the month before it he fell to pieces. I think the bigger issue was the team started to look to Heeney, Papley, Jones, Newman and co more because they're better with the ball in hand and if that's the case then there is strong reason to believe that last year will be his new norm, basically his marks and tackles were constant and his role didn't seem changed it was purely that he got 5+ less touches a game over the past two years.

    I think that's it for our midfield guys.

    Hewett is an interesting one if he gets forward status, I like him and think he will continue to get more midfield minutes as it is comfortably his best role, he's one to watch if he has forward positioning again.

    Papley likewise, despite no preseason, played a lot of midfield minutes and the team looked better when he did because of his ability to burst from packs, something we lack. He'd need heavy midfield minutes in the preseason to take the punt but he's also a watchlist guy.

    Heeney should keep FWD status and as such is probably the lockiest of the Swans. What he did on the back of a glandular fever ruined preseason was quite simply spectacular last year and I expect this year if he has a full preseason that he pushes permanent midfield and can push Fyfe breakout level such is his talent and absurdly natural fantasy game. I don't think that 105-110/115-130 range scores are at all beyond him next season which as a forward would be a game breaker. He tackles, marks, wins contested ball, uses the pill excellently and when he goes forward to rest he kicks goals and creates chaos.

    Franklin remains a strong option as well although as always he is probably the upgrade target type with the consistency that he has of an early mare or two.

    Tippett if he can get fit and win the #1 ruck role is very underpriced and should get R/F, he was hampered with knee and ankle issues all year and never got going but if fit there isn't a reason he can't do something similar to Nank last year, would help if Horse wasn't obsessed with playing as many talls as are fit each week. His durability is woeful but he's a proven 90/100 scorer as a first ruck and he's priced in the 60s, basically it's Sandi from last year, make it to the byes and score well and it's a golden step... of course it can fail miserably but it's a very decent option in a crowded ruck field. His likely DPP would be the big swing factor though.

    Having said that, I also really like Naismith's breakout potential, I'm not sure I could bring myself to pick him with Horse as coach and 3 other AFL ready ruck options but I really like him as a long term prospect and think he's ready to go boom. Pure hunch though. Still, fantasy wise Tippett winning the first ruck role would be the best result.

    Think that's everyone, maybe a rookie will appear but I think with how many we've blooded the last two years that we're unlikely to be fielding many kids this year that haven't already broken their prices.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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