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Thread: Round 4 Trades

  1. #16
    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    For Swallow, thought it would be interesting to ask a few questions (to myself included).

    What do you see Swallow averaging this season?

    What would you need him to average for him to be worth it?

    Who are you trading out for him? What are they averaging/do you see them maintaining that average or it improving?

    For me, I think around a 90-95 average is probably what I see him averaging. His best average before is 93.8 which came in 2014. Pre season suggested he was going be spend time at HFF and rotate in the midfield. Haven't focused on his game but GC have a ton of guys to play through the midfield so this might very well be the case.

    Now is a 90-95 average worth it? It will cost a trade to bring him in, cash - maybe 50k (O'Meara > Swallow) and then another trade when Swallow is turned into a premium. Using the average I've guessed for him, he'll net roughly 20-25 points on O'Meara's current average every week and gain more cash in the process, I suppose I just wonder if that makes him worth it? On his current average of 104.5 he most certainly is, but if it drops by 10-15 points, I'm not entirely sure it is.

    Swallow had 34 touches against Hawthorn for his score of 120 (89 against GWS the week before with 21 touches). In his previous PB season of 2014, he managed to reach over 29 touches just twice, a 37 against Adelaide and a 31 against Collingwood (both times resulted in sub 120 scores as well). I'm just not sure whether he's someone that's going to be a ball magnet or if what we saw in 2014 is basically what we should come to expect (which is what I am banking on with my predicted average). Not to say he needs 30+ to score well, in his x2 120+ games in 2014, both were off the back of 27 and 28 touches. He tends to kick a little more than he handballs, gets a few marks, can tackle strongly on his day and gets his shots on goal.

    The final part is who you're trading him out for. For my own team, it's O'Meara who I haven't been happy with. He's had x2 60 scores in round 1 and 3 and an 83 inbetween and that took him 36 touches to reach that. He finally fixed up his shocking K:H ratio on the weekend however he wasn't able to find much of it with just the 14 touches to find his 62 (although on the flip side, 22 less touches than the week before and he scored just 21 fewer DT points). The one that sticks out the most to me is his tackling numbers, in 2013 he averaged 5 tackles a game, in 2014 he averaged 6.45 tackles and this season he's currently only averaging 1.6 a game. Marks are another one that's down quite a bit. Hit the scoreboard a bit in his first two seasons and he has continued that pattern at Hawthorn, just going at 1.3 so far.


    So for my ramble, I haven't really been big on O'Meara to start the season as he hasn't really done like I expected him to from a fantasy perspective. That said, I still think there's upside in his current average of 70 where with Swallow, I think he comes down a bit to low/mid 90s. Whilst I'm going to miss out on the cash Swallow maakes, I'm not really sure it justifies the trade.

    /ramble.


    Edit: O'Meara > Swallow makes me ~45k rather than costs me 50k.
    Last edited by dylan123; 13th April 2017 at 12:05 AM.

  2. #17
    FFC General Manager Crow-mo's Avatar
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    For Swallow, thought it would be interesting to ask a few questions (to myself included).

    What do you see Swallow averaging this season?

    What would you need him to average for him to be worth it?

    Who are you trading out for him? What are they averaging/do you see them maintaining that average or it improving?

    For me, I think around a 90-95 average is probably what I see him averaging. His best average before is 93.8 which came in 2014. Pre season suggested he was going be spend time at HFF and rotate in the midfield. Haven't focused on his game but GC have a ton of guys to play through the midfield so this might very well be the case.

    Now is a 90-95 average worth it? It will cost a trade to bring him in, cash - maybe 50k (O'Meara > Swallow) and then another trade when Swallow is turned into a premium. Using the average I've guessed for him, he'll net roughly 20-25 points on O'Meara's current average every week and gain more cash in the process, I suppose I just wonder if that makes him worth it? On his current average of 104.5 he most certainly is, but if it drops by 10-15 points, I'm not entirely sure it is.

    Swallow had 34 touches against Hawthorn for his score of 120 (89 against GWS the week before with 21 touches). In his previous PB season of 2014, he managed to reach over 29 touches just twice, a 37 against Adelaide and a 31 against Collingwood (both times resulted in sub 120 scores as well). I'm just not sure whether he's someone that's going to be a ball magnet or if what we saw in 2014 is basically what we should come to expect (which is what I am banking on with my predicted average). Not to say he needs 30+ to score well, in his x2 120+ games in 2014, both were off the back of 27 and 28 touches. He tends to kick a little more than he handballs, gets a few marks, can tackle strongly on his day and gets his shots on goal.

    The final part is who you're trading him out for. For my own team, it's O'Meara who I haven't been happy with. He's had x2 60 scores in round 1 and 3 and an 83 inbetween and that took him 36 touches to reach that. He finally fixed up his shocking K:H ratio on the weekend however he wasn't able to find much of it with just the 14 touches to find his 62 (although on the flip side, 22 less touches than the week before and he scored just 21 fewer DT points). The one that sticks out the most to me is his tackling numbers, in 2013 he averaged 5 tackles a game, in 2014 he averaged 6.45 tackles and this season he's currently only averaging 1.6 a game. Marks are another one that's down quite a bit. Hit the scoreboard a bit in his first two seasons and he has continued that pattern at Hawthorn, just going at 1.3 so far.


    So for my ramble, I haven't really been big on O'Meara to start the season as he hasn't really done like I expected him to from a fantasy perspective. That said, I still think there's upside in his current average of 70 where with Swallow, I think he comes down a bit to low/mid 90s. Whilst I'm going to miss out on the cash Swallow maakes, I'm not really sure it justifies the trade.

    /ramble.


    Edit: O'Meara > Swallow makes me ~45k rather than costs me 50k.
    all fair, but I wonder if Swallow doesn't get you something else? 90-95 seems achievable, which will get you nearly 200K, plus it gets you time.

    time to review and see who the dominant mids are for the year, upgrading early means having to guess on who is going to be there when the dust settles. but Swallow at 90-95 allows him to be the last guy you upgrade, so when you do it, you know who is worth having. option value to wait to see the field develop

    that option value, given what seems to be low risk, is pretty attractive to me
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  4. #18
    FFC Senior Coach Elvs1's Avatar
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    I'm holding O'Meara, their scoring could so easily be flipped next round.

    Trades for me at this stage seem pretty straight forward
    SC: Gawn -> SMartin
    RDT: Hibbard -> Newman

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  6. #19
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    I'm chopping O'Meara myself. Even when he had 36 possies he didn't crack 100SC, that was worrying in itself.

    I agree on sideways trading though to Swallow, who already has an ankle and now a corked thigh or whatever to deal with too. I think Swallow was BOG on the weekend, so wouldn't expect him to be BOG in a GC win every week (or possibly again for the season.)
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  7. #20
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    O'Mearas tackling numbers are really concerning. 5 tackles in 3 games of football as an inside mid is nothing short of pathetic. Considering it has been a strong part of his game throughout his career.

    I think for the time being I'll hold as I have more pressing issues and just hope he's still building himself into the season.

  8. #21
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    Seems like a pretty ballsy move to cut ties with Shaw so early on however I suppose I'm not completely against it - however I don't think I'll trade him out.

    Pre season he was GWS best player with a 115 average and the second best PPM at 1.21. Hasn't exactly fired yet but will surely have a fantasy friendly game coming soon...
    My worry is that he has now had 0 good scores in 3 games. It'd be different if he'd had a big 100 and a low score.

    He's also only averaging 84.7 from his last 15 games.
    First 13 games last year were 112 DT and last 12 (including finals) were 86.3.

    I picked him on his strong pre-season numbers and his first half of last season form, but these haven't eventuated.

    He also shares his rd 13 bye with Laird and Adams, meaning he's going to be a liability if he doesn't turn it around.

  9. #22
    FFC Bag Carrier Wheedus's Avatar
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    For what it's worth I took a punt on Shaw slipping in SC (mainly for the reasons PVC highlights above). I reckon he'll still be close to a top 6 back over the whole season but it was just too much money to pay. GWS have built a quality team all over the park now, Heater's another year older and he just doesn't need to dominate like he used to.

    I'm pretty sure I didn't pick him last year for the same reason but got it wrong. This year it looks to have been the right move.
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Quote Originally Posted by pvcyclone View Post
    My worry is that he has now had 0 good scores in 3 games. It'd be different if he'd had a big 100 and a low score.

    He's also only averaging 84.7 from his last 15 games.
    First 13 games last year were 112 DT and last 12 (including finals) were 86.3.

    I picked him on his strong pre-season numbers and his first half of last season form, but these haven't eventuated.

    He also shares his rd 13 bye with Laird and Adams, meaning he's going to be a liability if he doesn't turn it around.
    There's always the potential to sideways him out of a bye issue back to a Rd 11 or 12 bye. I'm happy to let it ride through to that point.
    Never bet against Tom Rockliff

  11. #24
    FFC CEO Narkee's Avatar
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Watch JOM have a career game against the Cats.
    Zach Tuohy my boy for 2017!

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  13. #25
    FFC Senior Coach Elvs1's Avatar
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Quote Originally Posted by Narkee View Post
    Watch JOM have a career game against the Cats.
    I don't think that will even be enough to get us over the line.

    Perhaps if Gunston, Rioli, Gibson, Hodge, Shiels, Stratton, Frawley, Burgoyne, Vickery pretty much the whole f'ing team do we'll get close to you guys.

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  15. #26
    FFC Rookie oaks's Avatar
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Thoughts on Gawn>Roo (Nank to Rucks)?
    2104. 94th overall



  16. #27
    FFC Football Operations Manager Nothing's Avatar
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Quote Originally Posted by oaks View Post
    Thoughts on Gawn>Roo (Nank to Rucks)?
    I'm likely to be doing similarly, with Goldy.

  17. #28
    FFC Rookie oaks's Avatar
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Im just worried about Roo's durability, the bloke doesn't seem to be slowing down though.
    2104. 94th overall



  18. #29
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Quote Originally Posted by pvcyclone View Post
    My worry is that he has now had 0 good scores in 3 games. It'd be different if he'd had a big 100 and a low score.

    He's also only averaging 84.7 from his last 15 games.
    First 13 games last year were 112 DT and last 12 (including finals) were 86.3.

    I picked him on his strong pre-season numbers and his first half of last season form, but these haven't eventuated.

    He also shares his rd 13 bye with Laird and Adams, meaning he's going to be a liability if he doesn't turn it around.
    84 isn't far off the mark but I agree.

    Whilst his final 15 of last year has a low average, his final 7 games he averaged 99 DT.

    I am tempted by Lloyd and don't want to lose cash but at the same time I see him being someone that turns it around and someone I'll want to have at some point.

  19. #30
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    Re: Round 4 Trades

    Jordan Tunbridge‏ @JordanTunbridge 25m25 minutes ago
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    Roos Coach refuses to name preferred ruck option. Form of Preuss & Goldstein will dictate which one gets more midfield time. @3AWisfootball
    Bit more info for those holding Goldy and unsure.

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