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Thread: Forward Premiums

  1. #76
    FFC Midpricer scrotumscragger's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Notorious_29 View Post
    https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-02-...r-calf-setback

    Another calf setback for Wingard.

    Cross him out if you hadn't already.
    Thank ****- had both wingard and adams, and they would have probably ruined my season if I'd started them.
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  2. #77
    FFC Football Operations Manager Nothing's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Walters/Mundy news from the Season launch:
    With Fyfe's return to the mids, Walters said he will be spending more time forward and Fyfe said that with the added forward depth Mundy and him will be in the mids more.

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  4. #78
    FFC Football Operations Manager Hodges's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Good to know, cross Walters off the list then.
    Only ever talking SC

  5. #79
    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Any love for Boak? Currently have him in my DT and I don't think I've seen him mentioned too often so I assume he's in few teams.

    Seems like he'll have more of a midfield role this year with them pushing Ebert out which should be good for his fantasy scores or his DT at the least. Feel like I should be in for a rise however I am questioning the selection slightly. Last year he averaged 87 and his previous 4 averages have been 91, 89, 96 and 95 (100 the year before that). To me it kind of suggests the ceiling isn't all that high with this selection so is he really worth the 'risk' for a 5-10 point gain? I can flip it though and compare him to Mundy of last year who was great for my team, just chipped away solid scores week after week and played all the games which had him as one of the top scoring forward premiums. There were only 9 forward to average over 90 last year in DT and of that 9, only 5 averaged over 95 and 3 over 100 so it really isn't such a high ceiling.


    Heeney is the other selection that I'm questioning. Between these two I could easily get rid of either/both/neither. Been a lock all pre season however the pre season games haven't done him any solids which could be a blessing if I do go with him and he does as expected. From all reports, he's had a really strong pre season which should do wonders for him given what he went through last pre season. All in all, his DT average went from 92.1 in 2017 to 90.7 so that should be an easy enough climb as it is. His 2018 average contains an 18 where he got a concussion and was done in half a game and missed the following week. Take that out and his average rises to 94.35. This is all for a 23 year old as well so with a full pre season, more midfield minutes etc, hard to see that average going backwards and more likely to go up.

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  7. #80
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    Any love for Boak? Currently have him in my DT and I don't think I've seen him mentioned too often so I assume he's in few teams.

    Seems like he'll have more of a midfield role this year with them pushing Ebert out which should be good for his fantasy scores or his DT at the least. Feel like I should be in for a rise however I am questioning the selection slightly. Last year he averaged 87 and his previous 4 averages have been 91, 89, 96 and 95 (100 the year before that). To me it kind of suggests the ceiling isn't all that high with this selection so is he really worth the 'risk' for a 5-10 point gain? I can flip it though and compare him to Mundy of last year who was great for my team, just chipped away solid scores week after week and played all the games which had him as one of the top scoring forward premiums. There were only 9 forward to average over 90 last year in DT and of that 9, only 5 averaged over 95 and 3 over 100 so it really isn't such a high ceiling.


    Heeney is the other selection that I'm questioning. Between these two I could easily get rid of either/both/neither. Been a lock all pre season however the pre season games haven't done him any solids which could be a blessing if I do go with him and he does as expected. From all reports, he's had a really strong pre season which should do wonders for him given what he went through last pre season. All in all, his DT average went from 92.1 in 2017 to 90.7 so that should be an easy enough climb as it is. His 2018 average contains an 18 where he got a concussion and was done in half a game and missed the following week. Take that out and his average rises to 94.35. This is all for a 23 year old as well so with a full pre season, more midfield minutes etc, hard to see that average going backwards and more likely to go up.
    Boak - Have had him in my side a few times, I like him more in SC personally but he's viable in both formats. Honestly reckon his two games were actually a really accurate assessment of where he's at. His role was much better in JLT (not JLT1, iirc, he started really well before spending a lot more time forward while JLT2 he stayed midfield all game essentially). Biggest issue is I don't trust the coach but he's their 2nd best midfielder by a decent distance and if they're going to play their best midfielder by an even bigger distance as a forward pocket you kind of have to put Boak back in the middle, surely right? Ebert forward certainly helps, I'd argue Ebert adds more as a forward with his superior marking and the fact his kicking at goal is better than his field kicking but that logic has applied the past two years where Boak and Gray have rotted up forward because Sam Gray, midfield superstar, is Ken Hinkley's wet dream or something.

    In short, I like Boak a lot. He's a guy who is a really solid pick if he can find 5-10 points and I think the midfield time is a really good bet to provide that. He's also a pretty strong bet to not really regress from last year and play close to 22 games. Personally the key for me is I think the premium level will drop if anything this year, I just don't see Hawkins, Franklin or Westhoff sustaining their 100+ seasons from last year and honestly I don't see anyone I like more than the Boak/Mundy types to actually go 100+. I like Heeney more, more on him next, and Kelly also has a strong case but outside that, I honestly think of the "borderline" premium guys to start the season that Mundy and Boak have the best narratives for pushing towards the 95/100 marks that make them genuine premiums.

    Heeney - Ankle injury kind of took the luster off an otherwise outstanding preseason and JLT series. His scoring per minute was absurd and his role was much better in the two JLT games, note that JLT2 he scored at that rate after injuring the ankle in the first 10 seconds of the game so that was a hobbled score. He's set to train the full week after training a bit last week apparently so it doesn't appear the ankle is major but it's still a negative. He'd never had a preseason before so that's a major tick for increasing his scoring potential. His quality as a player is pretty undeniable and I think he can really push to a higher level this year. Honestly he's the only guy other than Danger that I'd back to score 110+ this year in the forwards. To me his sheer upside potential and his popularity (45% of SC) make him pretty close to a must pick this year. If he doesn't improve, you get a keeper, if he does improve like he seems destined to do sooner rather than later, then you've got a liability if you don't have him. DT it's not as prevalent as he's still quality over quantity but I do think he can push to a pretty dangerous level in DT as well for those ignoring him.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

  8. #81
    Moderator Athomas's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    Seems like he'll have more of a midfield role this year with them pushing Ebert out which should be good for his fantasy scores or his DT at the least. Feel like I should be in for a rise however I am questioning the selection slightly. Last year he averaged 87 and his previous 4 averages have been 91, 89, 96 and 95 (100 the year before that). To me it kind of suggests the ceiling isn't all that high with this selection so is he really worth the 'risk' for a 5-10 point gain? I can flip it though and compare him to Mundy of last year who was great for my team, just chipped away solid scores week after week and played all the games which had him as one of the top scoring forward premiums. There were only 9 forward to average over 90 last year in DT and of that 9, only 5 averaged over 95 and 3 over 100 so it really isn't such a high ceiling.
    Taking a look, would have to agree his ceiling isn't that high, but I'm leaning him for now, especially with Wines to miss a few early (there is talk Wines is recovering quickly, but why risk him.) Durability is amazing too.

    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    Heeney is the other selection that I'm questioning. Between these two I could easily get rid of either/both/neither. Been a lock all pre season however the pre season games haven't done him any solids which could be a blessing if I do go with him and he does as expected. From all reports, he's had a really strong pre season which should do wonders for him given what he went through last pre season. All in all, his DT average went from 92.1 in 2017 to 90.7 so that should be an easy enough climb as it is. His 2018 average contains an 18 where he got a concussion and was done in half a game and missed the following week. Take that out and his average rises to 94.35. This is all for a 23 year old as well so with a full pre season, more midfield minutes etc, hard to see that average going backwards and more likely to go up.
    Heeney is reminding me of Fyfe a bit, there's always some type of injury. His durability is much better than Fyfe though (20,18,21 last 3) but yeah I am definitely put off. Clarke actually looked ok rotating through the mids, no Menzel (or Buddy?) early, they might still use him a lot up forward.
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  9. #82
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Athomas View Post
    Taking a look, would have to agree his ceiling isn't that high, but I'm leaning him for now, especially with Wines to miss a few early (there is talk Wines is recovering quickly, but why risk him.) Durability is amazing too.



    Heeney is reminding me of Fyfe a bit, there's always some type of injury. His durability is much better than Fyfe though (20,18,21 last 3) but yeah I am definitely put off. Clarke actually looked ok rotating through the mids, no Menzel (or Buddy?) early, they might still use him a lot up forward.
    Boak doesn't need a huge ceiling, 95/100 would basically guarantee him as a premium in each format and his ceiling is higher than that in both based on his scoring history. There are concerns but that statement is basically a blanket you can throw over every forward except Dangerfield and Boak is a pretty good bet to average more than his starting point if he can even just get 10% more game time in the midfield, he'll find a tackle and a touch doing that and that's premium level from his starting point.

    Heeney has actually been pretty durable and that's with no preseasons, logic says a good preseason should improve that. He had a concussion last year and the games missed in 2017 were from the glandular fever which made his season pretty amazing all things considered. His problem has basically been that he has missed all the preseasons with minor things and management. The forward time's not really a concern, he spent way too much time forward last year and still scored well and his JLT was basically all wing. He's a player who is far better as a midfielder pushing forward with a mismatch than as a forward where he gets the top defender. When he has say Gaff with him at the Eagles he's vastly superior in the air and just a smarter forward than Gaff is defender but when he gets Shep all his advantage goes away (Eagles as an example!). I'd feel better about the previous sentence if Horse wasn't such a moron obviously but the JLT has been a good sign at least on that front.

    Really though, what other forwards have 105+ potential if they're healthy all season? I'd say the list is Devon Smith (who had a bad preseason and the Shiel addition), Franklin (in doubt for round 1 and literally no preseason and getting old but, still, it's Buddy), Gray as a midfielder but his coach seems to want him as a forward pocket because he might be stupider than Horse, Mundy/Boak winding back the clock, Dunkley/McLean/Wallis if at least one of the other two didn't exist, Kelly, Wingard (no preseason, not available round 1 anyway), Darling (but he's a **** and there is no proof of it) and then you're in the real longshot territory of the Gresham and Billings types who, sure maybe, but I don't think many would bet on it. If I extended that to 110+ you lose basically everyone else which is a realistic territory for Heeney, imo (personally I think 105 is his healthy season but 110 is certainly possible). Plus, at 45% of teams, the downside if Heeney goes bang is so immense and the likelihood that he isn't a premium seems pretty low so you're basically avoiding a guy with serious upside potential immense popularity and pretty low downside risk, he's the textbook example of it's riskier to go against him than with him.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

  10. #83
    Super Moderator divvydan's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    FWIW, there was an article a day or two ago about McLean being much more of a forward this season, so he should be a pretty easy one to rule out, at least for the start of the season. Also makes Wallis/Dunkley slightly better prospects, although I think both are still too high a risk.

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  12. #84
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by divvydan View Post
    FWIW, there was an article a day or two ago about McLean being much more of a forward this season, so he should be a pretty easy one to rule out, at least for the start of the season. Also makes Wallis/Dunkley slightly better prospects, although I think both are still too high a risk.
    There was also an article about Dunkley playing more forward and trying to make the most of the chances while down there (it was better than the McLean one where he's basically said he'll play forward mostly). Both articles strongly supported Libba with a good role.

    Wallis was the top of the 3 for CBA I believe in JLT which kind of hurts as I think he's the least viable of them from a fantasy perspective (refuses to kick!) but the other two are far more dependent on midfield time to score well so you're almost blunting all 3 swords!

    Still, good for Libba and Macrae, imo, who are my top picks from the Dogs anyway. Also probably good for Bont because McLean is a very decent forward.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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