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Thread: Forward Premiums

  1. #61
    FFC Senior Assistant Coach hendo8888's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    What have people decided to do with Buddy and Walters?
    I feel like I've already used too many injury trades.
    This post was more than likely SC based.
    If in doubt, assume it was.

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    Moderator Athomas's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by hendo8888 View Post
    What have people decided to do with Buddy and Walters?
    I feel like I've already used too many injury trades.
    Bit delayed now, I traded Buddy in all formats. Traded Walters in DT/AF but kept in SC as I used him as a loophole this week. Sounds like he could be back as early as next week, so probably worth holding in SC if you can use a bench player as an EMG this week (or even if you can just cover for the week)
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    Super Moderator divvydan's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Mitch Robinson to miss the next 3 weeks or so. Not sure if anyone has him in any format but I think at least some were considering him.

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by divvydan View Post
    Mitch Robinson to miss the next 3 weeks or so. Not sure if anyone has him in any format but I think at least some were considering him.
    Rest in peace sweet LOL and Legacy.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    Super Moderator divvydan's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Probably belongs in fwd midpricers now but on Billings
    Fantasy Freako@FantasyFreako 8m8 minutes agoMore



    Jack Billings played 69% of the game vs Suns on the wing and had just 28% time as a forward. #SuperCoach #AFLFantasy

  7. #66
    FFC Football Operations Manager Hodges's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Shame he isnt DPP, would be handy bench cover if he was. Still, if you are struggling for cash and need to roll the dice he could be a pretty good flyer.
    Only ever talking SC

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by divvydan View Post
    Probably belongs in fwd midpricers now but on Billings
    Just shocked, absolutely shocked that his coach suddenly works out his natural position after destroying him by locking him away in football purgatory all season...

    Not like I've been saying it since round 1 or anything...

    PS. Of course it also came after I finally got him out of all my teams
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

  9. #68
    Super Moderator divvydan's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    JJK has a hairline fracture in his leg and will miss this week and will be touch and go for the next couple more.

  10. #69
    FFC Football Operations Manager Nothing's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Will be interesting to see how they cope with JJK and Darling. There wouldn't be many games without those two in the last 5 years.

    Lucky they get to play at home this week.

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    Super Moderator Bunga's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Nothing View Post
    Will be interesting to see how they cope with JJK and Darling. There wouldn't be many games without those two in the last 5 years.

    Lucky they get to play at home this week.
    I think I heard 190 games in a row with at least 1 of them playing
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  13. #71
    FFC Senior Assistant Coach Robbo's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Bunga View Post
    I think I heard 190 games in a row with at least 1 of them playing
    Yeh i believe it's the first time since before Darling's debut we will have neither out there.
    First Passenger on-board the Stefan Martin Train!

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    With SC Picker now open we have the basically final list of names, prices and positions (even if there are more changes with the new March pickup replacement rule it wont impact premium forwards)... This position is loaded this year and will probably make or break a lot of seasons...

    Dangerfield - $660,500 - For mine he's a lock unless he's injured in the preseason. Underpriced from the slow start last year but averaged 133 over the last 9 games (post bye) and flew home. At anywhere from 10-20 points underpriced, captaincy viability and popularity level I think there is just far too much risk to not start him at this point. DPP an added bonus

    Hawkins - $552,900 - On the flipside his season seems a total anomaly and I have almost zero interest in him, required some monster games to average 100 and given his durability, scoring history and KPP inconsistency I just can't for the life of me start him... He could prove me wrong but that's my take.

    Westhoff - $549,500 - Ruck DPP is his major selling point. Personally with the Lycett addition taking his 2nd ruck role, I'd hazard to guess, I like the wait and see approach on him. Last season was his best by a pretty decent amount and the ruck role can pretty much explain the entire difference.

    Franklin - $543,500 - Just had groin surgery and wont be back in training until February, I don't like taking guys who had bad pre-seasons and his is already guaranteed to tick that box. I have too much uncertainty at Sydney in general to want to start a guy whose body is rapidly falling apart on him. His track record of being cheap at some point sure doesn't help his case in my eyes.

    Menegola - $543,100 - DPP Mid who had a great season last year, his scoring was all over the shop but at the end of the day he backed up the previous season. Talk is Ablett will spend much more time forward this year which would be great news for Menegola, imo. I think he's established himself as a guy who should average in the 95-105 range and that makes him a reasonable starting choice, having said that, if he scores as inconsistently as last year he could also be a great upgrade target. Durability a strong support of starting pick for mine.

    D. Smith - $531,300 - DPP Mid and a very interesting case, imo. I see three negatives for him that I'll knock off first. Shiel is the first and obvious one, he'll take midfield minutes from everyone. His durability record is the 2nd one, with the kicker that last year was his first 22 game season and he just looked to be fitter in general. The third is his absurd tackle numbers which is a stat that can be a bit hit and miss from year to year but on the flipside is an effort stat that can be replicated and does provide a solid floor if he improves in other areas. The positives though are strong as well, starting with his 103 average over the last 10 games as his role and confidence developed (probably his fitness as well), the tackling can be seen as a positive as well so have to mention that. If Shiel makes the side better then that's also helps in SC scoring generally. He's very high on my list, the durability is the top issue I have so would love to see a flawless preseason.

    T. McDonald - $529,800 - A very interesting one, Hogan out supports a bigger role in the team which means higher scoring, Hogan only missed the two games against strong opponents so hard to really judge much on that sample. For me he is still a KPP and I expect he'll see the top defender most weeks so I want to wait and see.

    Heeney - $529,200 - Bit of a disappointing year last year as he failed to really take the next step and had some consistency issues. The concussion game drops his average a little, so that's a positive. Hanners going opens a midfield spot that should have already been his, also a positive. Sydney's overall trajectory again a concern, Horse's tendency to play Heeney as a FF and isolate him out of the game an even bigger one. Kid is capable of pushing towards 120 if he gets a prime midfield role though which is a lot of upside for minimal downside. Durability is a little sketchy but not terrible. He's very high on my starter list though because realistically the upside is fantastic. He's too good to not play in the midfield in my eyes.

    Gray - $525,500 - Enigma, overpriced as a forward, underpriced as a mid. Who knows what his coach will do but with no Wingard the odds of him rotting up forward seem greater to me. I'd need a pretty clear message about his role to pick him personally but he's absolutely on the watch list, similar to Heeney, his upside as a midfielder is exceptional but he's overpriced as a forward so there is real downside risk.

    Gunston - $521,400 - Probably fairly priced and probably not a bad pick, you'll probably pick up the vibe here that I think the threshold this year will be 105+ at this position given how many potential guns are everywhere, which leaves Gunston as that guy who can't do that type of pick that works if I'm wrong but fails if I'm right. Plus he's such an utter **** of a human that I don't want to cheer him on.

    Mundy - $520,900 - DPP here and with the Hogan and Lobb additions there's a really good case for increased midfield minutes. I think at his age though it's probably safe to say they'll use him similarly to last year which means he'll score similarly. Neale exit could change that though, Lyon's job on the line probably also helps the cause of him getting midfield minutes. An interesting one to watch, imo, as midfielder Mundy can score 105+ still imo.

    Breust - $516,400 - Not sure if his sudden breakout or Hawkins' last year was more unpredictable but his story is basically the same as Hawkins for mine. I'll let him back it up and then upgrade to him if he does rather than start him and see a regression to the mean.

    Dunkley - $516,300 - Hard to ignore his finish to last season where he averaged 111 over his last 10 and an absurd 127 over his last 6. There are so many questions with Libba back, McLean fit, Bont not rotting up forward and the two gun rookie mids they drafted as to where he fits in but his ability to score is exceptional in the midfield role. Honestly, the Dogs are a total enigma to me going into next season, will be watching them absurdly closely. Simple fact is Dunkley has proven he can probably average 110 over a season based on last year, whether he gets the chance is everything. Very high on the watch list.

    McLean - $514,000 - Hard to ignore his finish to the season either given it's the polar opposite of Dunkley's, he averaged just 81 over his last 12 games, 11 of which are the Port game that he hurt his shoulder onward, his role did change with Dunkley basically switching into the main role and McLean getting the leftovers, his tackling dropped which a shoulder injury would explain (as would the role change though). Now you can read into this multiple ways... the most positive would be that he just failed to run out the season and an extra preseason will have him back at the 110+ mark he was the first 10 games of the season, alternatively that the shoulder injury forced the change and he'll bounce back when fit of course the alternative is simply that Dunkley took his role and owned it and he wont get it back (the same story of McLean on Dahlhaus, fwiw). McLean is young and hungry so that's a good combo to improve from. End of the day, he's yet another in the long list of reasons to watch the Dogs preseason very closely.

    T. Kelly - $505,800 - A very interesting prospect as well. Basically averaged the same across the season but he was a total rollercoaster as well, as you'd expect from a rookie. If he can clean out the really bad scores he instantly is a 105 type player. Not sure how the offseason issues will affect him, will he come back with a point to prove or just coast through the season? He's a must watch, especially if the Ablett going forward thing is true as he'd be the obvious guy to get more minutes given, imo, he was already better than Ablett last year given Ablett's refusal to tackle, apply pressure or do anything that might chip a fingernail.

    Riewoldt - $504,100 - Fairly priced based on his history, Lynch basically kills him as an option, imo. He's now only the 2nd best KPF at his team if they're both fit and it's hard to see that increasing his scoring 10+ points like I think he'd need to.

    Wallis - $498,800 - Speaking of guys that make the Dogs worth watching in the preseason. His move to the HFF didn't really change his scoring but he's always been a natural scorer and increased confidence could be all he needs this year. Not high on my list right now but certainly a guy I'm watching for to change my mind.

    Hogan - $498,300 - I don't like the new team, his team gets weaker and the coaches game style has been horrid the last couple of years, having said that, KPF have scored well under Lyon and Hogan is a special talent. His foot is a major concern though and for mine I'm happy to wait and see given his durability record is somewhere in the terrible at best region.

    M. Robinson - $496,600 - He started last year absurdly well and finished it about as badly, I imagine he rushed back from injury and was playing hurt but realistically that's the knock on him because it always happens. For mine Beams to Neale is a like for like exchange but I'd expect a few of the kids start to siphon his midfield minutes away. Think the upside just isn't quite there going into this season.

    I've drawn the line at 90 as my premium line but there is a ton of options in the next bracket that are worth discussing who I'll get to

    Personally I think the threshold for top 6 this year is likely to be 100+ with 105+ being my guess as to what the 6th guy will average, just very bullish on a lot of the names. For mine Danger is a lock at 105+, I'd expect two of Heeney, McLean, Dunkley and Smith to get there at a minimum as well, with 3 very possible, Kelly, Menegola and Gray also have cases for pushing that mark and that's just from this group. There's a ton of other guys that can also push towards that if things go to plan for them. Picking those guys is going to be really hard though, imo.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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  16. #73
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Heeney article the other day with the highlight being that his preseason to date has been flawless which is very significant given he's never really even had a preseason before. Last year obviously had knee surgery that cost his preseason, year before he had the glandular fever and had tendinitis issues the first couple. Still averaged basically 100 the last two years and he's still the front runner to take the bulk of Hanner's wasted midfield minutes from last year and he's an absolute gun.

    Genuinely believe he has Fyfe scoring type potential and for mine he's locked into my side at the moment simply because of the upside he does have but the perfect preseason and elevation to the leadership group are further ticks for mine.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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  18. #74
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Freo article the other day had Fyfe quoted as saying that he expects that Mundy will probably pick up the majority of Neale's midfield minutes, especially early in the season. Proven 100+ guy in that role who has still put up premium numbers rotting away up forward the last couple of years. Certainly one to look out for and with Blakely likely out the first month of the season he basically would just have to hold off the kids. They really don't have any other big bodies to throw in there to help out Fyfe.

    Certainly will be watching closely because if he got a hot start that would basically give you a great unique difference out the gates.

    The negative is I do think they'd fade him out of the midfield as the season went on if they're not in finals contention which realistically looking at their list is a bit of a longshot prediction so would expect the fadeout. Still if he can be averaging 100+ to round 10 then the low 90s from there would be more than enough over the season.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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  20. #75
    Moderator Notorious_29's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-02-...r-calf-setback

    Another calf setback for Wingard.

    Cross him out if you hadn't already.

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