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Thread: Forward Premiums

  1. #46
    Super Moderator Bunga's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Anyone considering Kane Lambert?

    Just doing some research on him after his excellent JLT series - lucrative fantasy role.

    Last year he averaged just over 98 is his last 13 games (including finals) - 7 x 100's

    472K mid/fwd - tigers play 6 of their first 7 games at the MCG.

    Could be a nice unique pick.
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    FFC Football Operations Manager Hodges's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Have seen his name mentioned a bit in other places, think he is a pretty good smoky TBH. The question mark is the same as with all the Tigers, will that manic pressure/game and desire be the same the year after realising the fairytale. Indications from the JLT games is that they are still hungry, so I think he's a fairly solid pick.

    Just had a look at his scores to end last year and he had a lot of lowish scores but also some huge ones. Could be a better upgrade option with that in mind.
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  4. #48
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Bunga View Post
    Anyone considering Kane Lambert?
    Was strongly considering him. Round 14 bye throws me off as usual.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bunga View Post
    472K mid/fwd - tigers play 6 of their first 7 games at the MCG.
    Just on this, I had already taken a look at this, his scores after the bye last year were the same at the MCG / away from the MCG, so don't think that's too much of a factor (unlike Dusty who has a big differential)
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  6. #49
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    So I'm strongly considering Mundy...

    Was just wanting to get any extra info from @hedgehog @Notorius_29 and @Nothing if they can remember how his preseason was last year and the season in general from an injury perspective (and this preseason carrying over).

    His trend is completely in the wrong direction but he's looked a lot better to me this preseason than I remember him looking over the past couple of seasons from a fitness/mobility perspective.
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  7. #50
    FFC Football Operations Manager Nothing's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Mundy has been reported as being the fittest they have seen him at training. I went to training a couple of times and he looked in great nick, notably pissed off that he missed one kick (it was to Sandi so not an easy target to miss). I said a few weeks back that I think he is the Freo Fwd to take, especially in SC. It looks like he doesn't have the pace to play entire games in the middle so they are playing him forward for part then unleashing him full time mid late in the game (4th Q). I think Freo will be much more competitive this year, I think our back six is settled (and AFL quality for the most part) with the only spots with any doubt being tall forward. It doesn't hurt that Sandi is looking fit too.

    The downside of Mnudy is that I think he's a Yeo style mister fixit. He will be moved around to fill a need, at times.

    Mundy is in my latest iteration for SC and is floating in and out of my AFL Fantasy team depending on my need for cash.

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  9. #51
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Nothing View Post
    Mundy has been reported as being the fittest they have seen him at training. I went to training a couple of times and he looked in great nick, notably pissed off that he missed one kick (it was to Sandi so not an easy target to miss). I said a few weeks back that I think he is the Freo Fwd to take, especially in SC. It looks like he doesn't have the pace to play entire games in the middle so they are playing him forward for part then unleashing him full time mid late in the game (4th Q). I think Freo will be much more competitive this year, I think our back six is settled (and AFL quality for the most part) with the only spots with any doubt being tall forward. It doesn't hurt that Sandi is looking fit too.

    The downside of Mnudy is that I think he's a Yeo style mister fixit. He will be moved around to fill a need, at times.

    Mundy is in my latest iteration for SC and is floating in and out of my AFL Fantasy team depending on my need for cash.
    Yeah, my problem is three fold on him...

    1. He needs to improve a bit under 10 points to work... (trending the wrong way the past couple of years).

    2. His bye.

    3. His scoring has been super inconsistent over the past couple of years, which means even if he improves he's probably not going to change price a lot. Last year he had 6 games under 80.


    Hence I was kind of hoping that he'd been playing hurt the past couple of years and that had limited him and caused some games where he just didn't get near it. The other factor that I'd love to hear of an injury is he averaged 104 over the first 9 games and just 79 over the last 12. The other significant factor in this time frame is of course that it's the period that Sandi was in the side as well which is not a coincidence, imo, but also isn't something that can be relied on to be any different this year.
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  10. #52
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    So this season it looks like the forward upgrade options are a bit of a mess right now, was wondering who you guys have as your top 6 forwards for the year.

    Locks

    Heeney, Gray, McLean - first two are absolute locks for top 6. McLean I think has shown enough now that we can call him that.


    Injury affected

    Buddy - should be top 6, but who knows how long the heel will trouble him.
    Greene - on average you would say he will be at the mark, but with zero preseason, more injuries since and the ever-present suspension risk, not sure you can take him.
    Walters - injury prone, but has taken the next step. Think he is worth the risk given how cheap he will be after he returns. Plays on Optus which is an added concern.
    Hogan - was just about the top forward before his horror 36 last week, where he turned his ankle badly. Has a great role, just a question of can you trust his body. Also has the issue of being a marking tall coming into winter.

    First time premos

    Hoff - top points scorer currently and second on average in the forwards. Has averaged over 95 once in his career, back in 2013 when he went at 98. Opened the season averaging 140 over the first 4 before dropping off a lot from then on. This is my worry with Hoff, he has had these hot streaks before and although he has a great role in a great team (which should mean consistency), its rare for a guy to make a scoring leap like this at his age. Other issue is he is a marking player and those types tend to drop off as the weather gets worse.

    Mitch Robinson - same as Hoff, has gone between an 80 and 90 average for 7 straight seasons, hard to see him breaking out. Added risk in that you will likely be in that boat alone, so if it goes bad you are even worse off.

    Taranto - this is the interesting one to me. Second year do it all mid, has four 100s out of his 6 games, the other two being an 88 and a 49. The 49 was when GWS had its full midfield, Hopper came back in, plus both Greene and Langdon missed so he played forward. I think so far he has clearly shown that when he gets mid minutes, he is a premium scorer. Kelly still out has helped him, question is what happens when he is back. I think he has gone past Hopper but who knows how the coaches see it. Averaging 104 minus that forward game, currently in 11% of teams. Think winter will suit him too, given his contested style of game.

    Acres - playing the role everyone thought Billings would have and doing it well. Has only gone below 90 once this season, but it was last round and he is now being rested. Not great signs if you are picking him as a top 6 guy.

    Sicily - great start so far, not sure whether you have him as a defender or a forward (probably defender, there are less top options there). Suspension clearly the risk, but on average you would pick him to finish top 6-8 I think.

    Parfitt - came out of nowhere really, think he is one of the big winners out of the Ablett injury. Which makes picking him a tough prospect, as its hard to predict his average in a healthy Cats team. Has the huge 168 propping up his average, but outside that he has gone 90-104 in 3 of his other 4 games. Currently injured though, which is an added concern.

    Dev Smith - has settled in at a low 90 average, which is basically where he has been most his career. Looks great though, can see him improving as he gets more comfortable in the role. Question on him is can a low 90 average be your F6.

    The questionable former premos

    Mundy - has great scoring history obviously, but is getting on in age. I think my biggest concern is actually Optus stadium, I think its a legitimate injury issue and is making me not want to pick Eagles and Dockers players. And that goes double for Mundy because of his age, think he is very likely to get rested at times this year. While he is out there though, he looks to be around that top 6 mark by average.

    Menegola - super hard to predict. Role seems to be fluctuating a lot, had three consecutive 120s but his other 3 games have been 57, 70 and 74. As a result he is going at a 96 average and is still very expensive at 550k. Can clearly score given the role, one to watch if the Cats get some LTIs in the mids I guess.

    Boak - has found his scoring touch again, three scores over 100 so far but nothing huge. Going at a 95 average, has the history and is the type that should maintain through the wetter months. Age and recent history works against him though.


    So I think thats the main ones. For me, this is my top 6 guys - i'm counting Sicily as a back, otherwise he would be in.

    Gray, Heeney, McLean, Buddy, Walters. Last spot is between Hoff, Taranto and Mundy.

    I think im talking myself out of Hoff and into Taranto, history just points to a drop off for Hoff. And as they say in GoT, winter is coming. And Taranto is way more suited to that than Hoff.
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  12. #53
    Super Moderator divvydan's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Hoff starts to season

    2013: 100,163, 150 and 149 in first 4 weeks. 45 and 33 the next two weeks and only scored 2 more 100's for the year.
    2014: Ave 98 for first 5, then a 42 and 40. Did have two more spells during the year of good scoring (rds 11-15: 108.4 and rds 18-23: 102.3)
    2015: Very poor start to the season, averaging 77.4 over the first 8 rounds. Averaged 104.5 for the rest of the season.
    2016: Two horrible games in the first 5 weeks for a 69 ave. Had a run of 97 for 11 weeks, then dropped off over the last 6 matches.
    2017: Slow start once more, averaging 77 in the first 6 games. Then had a run of 108 over 8 of the next 9, with a 49 sandwiched in there which came a week after getting hit in the head. Slow end to the year.
    2018: Ave 112.3 over the first 6 rounds with nothing below 82.

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  14. #54
    FFC Football Operations Manager Hodges's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    And thats exactly the worry with Hoff. Every year he has extended runs where he is going at a premium average, but every year it never translates into an end of year premium average. The fact that he has start off on this hot streak means you have to assume he has the cold streak coming up soon.
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    I think the addition of Watts has freed him up a bit though. From a fantasy perspective he's been victim to being thrown around all over the ground when the team needs it. This year (and I could be proven wrong), might be the year he hold the average to stay at premium levels.

  16. #56
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Hoff named in a forward pocket
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    From what I saw in the game against Essendon, Port channel the ball through him. I was noticing it because I was trying to work out WTF Bonner was doing, having brought him in that week. If Hoff is left at HB / roams between the arcs and have that role with pinch hits in the ruck against second rate ruckmen, then a reasonable average should be maintained. His scores will suffer a bit in poorer weather (marks). The risk is he is a swing man / versatile player and can pretty much play anywhere on the ground. If he's thrown forward in a shit game, he'll probably put out 60s again. Watts definitely reduces that risk but it's a long season and game plans change. Tough call.
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Yep his flexibility often hurts him from a fantasy POV. Watts has helped for sure, but they are one injury to Watts or Dixon away from Hoff needing to play forward. Is a really tough call, need a forward upgrade this week too which doesnt help.

    What do you guys think of Taranto? He is still the smoky for me right now, good team and currently has a great role. Probably similar to Hoff in that injuries can force him forward where he wont be a premium, but in the mids I think he definitely is.
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Taranto has had a reasonably easy run over his past 3 and had the 49 v the Swans. I'd say his average of 95 is a little inflated but if you think he can maintain that, he's a decent buy now priced at around 81 with a BE of 72. As a forward, the "proven premo" requirement is a little less onerous so there is more scope for taking a punt. Have to trade tonight if you're going to pull the trigger (which I always hate). Given his BE, I reckon you can wait a week and have a good hard look at him against the Cats tonight.
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  21. #60
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    On Hoff, I think you want to see his numbers over the next few weeks with Ryder back.

    That would indicate his true role in that Port side. Given that they'll have all of Watts, Dixon, Hoff and Ryder in the side.

    Because for all we know that round 1 score could be an anomaly in regards to his role within the Port full strength set up. That being said, I am waiting until post-China on both him and Gray.
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