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Thread: Forward Premiums

  1. #16
    FFC General Manager twarby's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Nothing View Post



    Any names you think I've missed? I'm looking at upgrades and players I might sideways through the byes. There's some interesting names to consider.
    One is Wingard. More midfield time last few weeks, and has the 2nd best 3rd round average, below also highlights how much of a freak athlete Ebert is.

    last 3 weeks CB numbers
    Port vs Carl
    30 CBs
    Wingard 19
    Wines 19
    Ebert 27
    SPP 15
    Port vs Bris
    35 CBs
    Wingard 22
    Wines 23
    Ebert 30
    SPP 22
    Port vs WCE
    31 CBs
    Wines 21
    Wingard 18
    SPP 12
    Ebert 25


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    Super Moderator divvydan's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Tom Lynch (Ade) has been ruled out of this week's game with a viral infection. Being monitored at the moment with a view to hopefully playing next week. Probably allows McGovern to slip straight back in this week and gives Beech another game.

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    FFC Bag Carrier Wheedus's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Greenwood to kick 6
    Proud coach of Big Jenny Talia FFC
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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheedus View Post
    Greenwood to kick 6
    Can loop him with Nank again so I'm all for that motion
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    FFC Bag Carrier Wheedus's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Wogitalia View Post
    Can loop him with Nank again so I'm all for that motion
    Stuck on my MID bench at the moment so can only loophole with Scooter (or cover for Joel if he doesn't play).
    Proud coach of Big Jenny Talia FFC
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  6. #21
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    This is a very interesting group in 2018. After last year's pathetic group where 95 had you as a premium I get the feeling that this year that level might be a bit higher. As always there is a massive turnover in the DPP guys and the same old, same olds of the KPP guys.

    I've gone with the guys at 88 onward as the threshold for the premiums at the start of the year, that's everyone within 5 points of the 6th best starting forward, no differentiation here for premium classes as there is no super premium level for mine right now...

    Sam Menegola - Probably the biggest surprise at the position for mine, was surprised when he got it in LOL and still surprised it held up but I'm hardly one to look a gift horse in the mouth. Has averaged 100 for both his seasons and has upside to push a little higher given his style. The obvious negative for him is the Ablett addition and what that means for his role given he's an inside bull. I'm expecting them to use Ablett on the outside a lot more to try and keep him healthy and for maximum impact given they really lack class on the outside, thus I'm not expecting him to hurt Menegola much at all, perhaps even help him as his score involvements will increase.

    Prediction - 95-110 - I think 100-105 is the real range here.
    Verdict - Very strong starting option, imo, likely top 5 scorer.

    Lance Franklin - Ultra consistent premium scorer year to year, durable and still at a prime age. His inconsistent in season scoring makes him more of an upgrade for mine, especially given how many other names on this list share his bye. Still, he's probably the man if you had to pick one guy to be 90+ this year. Slightly limited preseason is also a factor in probably being more of an upgrade target.

    Prediction - 90-105 - I think bang on last year give or take a point.
    Verdict - Strong starting option but think he's a better upgrade target.

    Isaac Heeney - Speaking of the guys who share a bye with Franklin, Heeney is an absurd talent who had zero preseason last year and still banged out a ton average basically. Hasn't had a perfect preseason but will still put together a much stronger one. Durability is the biggest issue here but his upside is scary and barring injury or something unforeseen in the preseason regarding his role I expect he'll be in most sides.

    Prediction - 95-120 - I'm expecting him to push the 110 mark.
    Verdict - Pretty much a must start for mine with the potential and the risk if you don't have him.

    Toby Greene - Suspensions were the issue last year. Backed up a great season with an even stronger one, just a prolific natural fantasy stud. I think he can improve but I think the role kind of limits him a bit. I also think that the nature of his role makes low scores very possible. His price didn't change much at all last year so you'll probably pay the same all season but there is a good chance he's cheaper and I think that's higher than the likelihood of significant improvement to change his points for price equation.

    Prediction - 90-105 - Expecting 97.5ish.
    Verdict - Solid starting choice, better upgrade option.

    Josh Kennedy - I don't like him as much, aging and had calf issues last year (old man injury) which wrecked his biggest strength going into last season of durability. Also expecting a weaker side, especially midfield supply. On top of that, he's super inconsistent in his scoring which consistently sees him available for up to 100k less than his starting price.

    Prediction - 85-100 - Leaning low 90s.
    Verdict - Don't like as a starting pick, too many unknowns, great upgrade target.

    Chad Wingard -
    This is one of the hardest ones to judge. His scoring history is a complete yo-yo, his scoring by role is a complete yo-yo, just everything is all or nothing with him. Still he's got legitimate potential to go 100+ which is always a huge reason to pick a player, he just balances that upside with the most potential to go less than 80 on this list as well. Durability is a bit of an issue also. Inconsistent scoring makes upgrade viability high.

    Prediction - 80-105 - Think mid 90s most likely if fit.
    Verdict - Same as JJK basically.

    Jack Billings - Another breakout member of the list, absurdly talented and if he had kicked straight on set shots would probably average 100 already, that's how easily he can go to the next level which given his elite kicking in every other area makes this a more likely than not outcome. Fairly inconsistent scoring and no premium history both work against him but his talent kind of suggests that his history will be made in the next few years. Durability has also been a major issue prior to last year. A full time midfield role could help him but would also mean more unknowns in him.

    Prediction - 85-110 - Leaning 100-105 range.
    Verdict - Strong starting pick but also strong upgrade target.

    Robbie Gray - Battled through injury all of last year and had an absolute mare of a season as a result... still averaged 92 though didn't he. Cancer issue has been put to the side and if his groin is right so that he can move back into the midfield instead of rotting up forward then there is no good reason he can't get back to the 110 level. He's one of those guys who it's hard to find a good reason not to pick, best I can come up with is his bye and if you liked Wingard more, I don't though. His downside is super limited, he basically couldn't run last year and he put up 92, hard to see him being on the field and scoring less than that.

    Prediction - 90-115 - Predicting 105+ if fit.
    Verdict - Must start at this point in time.

    Charlie Dixon - Breakout season last year and was legitimately great. Massive variance in scores and two teammates with more upside combined with his bye make him an upgrade only option for me.

    Prediction - 85-100 - I think 90-95 is likely.
    Verdict - Not a starting option with Gray and Wingard, Strong upgrade target.

    Luke Dahlhaus - Had a poor year plagued with minor injuries and lost his midfield role by the end of it. The upside is if he can get fit and get his role back, then he's got upside. The negative is if he has lost the role permanently then he's accurately priced and I think falls into the sub-premium category. Given how many midfielders the Dogs have I don't see there being any clear indication on his role from the preseason. Durability is wavering as well over the past couple of years.

    Prediction - 85-105 - 95ish
    Verdict - Not a starting option, imo, strong early upgrade target if role is back.

    David Mundy - A really interesting name to have appear in the forwards. Didn't finish last year well, which continues a general downward trajectory in his scoring the past couple of years. Still it's hard to ignore his 3 seasons prior to the last two and write him off entirely. Given his versatility to play in many lucrative roles I'll be watching his preseason closely. Obviously midfield would be the best but seems to have been pushed out by Lachie Neale in the engine room and that seems unlikely to change but still worth watching. Bit too much on the unknown list for me to start him though right now.

    Prediction - 80-105 - Massive range and just no idea where to pin him yet.
    Verdict - Preseason watch, starter viable, upgrade viable, ignore viable.

    Jeremy Cameron -
    Started like a house on fire last year and then just fell to pieces later in the season. Has no ability to play hurt and have a significant impact which given his durability record is a disturbing trait. Upside potential is really strong but his durability, volatility and lack of proven history makes him a weak link in this crowd where pretty much everyone has upside.

    Prediction - 80-105 - 90-95 likely for mine.
    Verdict - Upgrade target only for mine.

    Mitch Wallis - FWD status makes him a very interesting pick, bounced back from a major injury very well but like Dahlhaus has found his previous midfield role to be far less prolific with all their depth. The question is whether he can push back into the top group and score in the high 95+ range or if, like Dahlhaus, he'll end up anchored in the 85-95 range with some games where he just gets trapped forward. His durability record is pretty awful as well.

    Prediction - 85-105 - Expecting 90-95
    Verdict - Startable if you believe or see something in preseason, more of an upgrade target for mine.

    This is a very strong group, imo, made even stronger because of how many midprice guys are legitimately viable options this year. I'm really hoping to load up on the forwards a fair bit this year which means needing back rookies that match the forward options, which looks a bit questionable right now.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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  8. #22
    Moderator Athomas's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Wogitalia View Post
    Sam Menegola - Probably the biggest surprise at the position for mine, was surprised when he got it in LOL and still surprised it held up but I'm hardly one to look a gift horse in the mouth. Has averaged 100 for both his seasons and has upside to push a little higher given his style. The obvious negative for him is the Ablett addition and what that means for his role given he's an inside bull. I'm expecting them to use Ablett on the outside a lot more to try and keep him healthy and for maximum impact given they really lack class on the outside, thus I'm not expecting him to hurt Menegola much at all, perhaps even help him as his score involvements will increase.

    Prediction - 95-110 - I think 100-105 is the real range here.
    Verdict - Very strong starting option, imo, likely top 5 scorer.
    Read somewhere else that "Menegola averaged something like 93 when Joel Selwood was in the team and something like 125 the games Selwood missed(4)!"

    I should probably fact check this, but it does worry me. Also with Ablett in the team now.

    I loveeeeee Menegola though.
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  10. #23
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Athomas View Post
    Read somewhere else that "Menegola averaged something like 93 when Joel Selwood was in the team and something like 125 the games Selwood missed(4)!"

    I should probably fact check this, but it does worry me. Also with Ablett in the team now.

    I loveeeeee Menegola though.
    95 with Selwood, 121 without Selwood. Gets worse if you include the finals games where Menegola was trash, epic and trash.

    Is a stat that is a bit of a concern I guess, did have 99 in 6 games with Selwood in previous year as well though.

    Will be one to watch in the preseason I guess. Personally I just like Gray and Heeney more and then like the price of a few of the other guys. I think Menegola is a safe 95-105 type guy though but unlikely to go stupid high and become unaffordable.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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  12. #24
    Super Moderator Bunga's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Great post Wogi

    At this point, the only 2 I have confidence in picking are Heeney & Gray - Billings is very tempting I must admit but will have to watch his preseason before picking him.

    Just on JK, ankle surgery means almost no preseason so very much an upgrade target.
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  13. #25
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Bunga View Post
    Great post Wogi

    At this point, the only 2 I have confidence in picking are Heeney & Gray - Billings is very tempting I must admit but will have to watch his preseason before picking him.

    Just on JK, ankle surgery means almost no preseason so very much an upgrade target.
    It's a very interesting group, I actually like most of the picks but I just think that Heeney and Gray are almost automatics so the rest feel underwhelming. That's the hardest part, think those two will be in basically every side and not picking them is the bigger risk (like Macrae last year, lesson learned the hard way). Really the only way the others matter is if structure ends up dictating that a 3rd is needed/desire and then that option would be a massive factor.

    I also like Billings as an option, bye is an issue, but he's the other guy I think can push his average well past 100 and who might not be available at his current price after the first few weeks.

    At the moment I'm not really expecting this group to be all that relevant to starting teams. I see most picking Gray and Heeney until that changes and I think most are going to go bargain shopping for the next 1 or 2 guys given how many names are capable of mixing it with this group.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Heeney had a really rough second half of the season for memory?

    Regardless, I think he'll be one of my first picked forwards.

  15. #27
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    Heeney had a really rough second half of the season for memory?

    Regardless, I think he'll be one of my first picked forwards.
    Was better in the first half (and not good in the finals at all) but still a 103/95 split basically. No preseason was the big factor and he did seem to run out of steam a bit to me.

    Too much upside potential for me to avoid.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

  16. #28
    FFC Football Operations Manager Nothing's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Wasn't Heeney injured this preseason?

  17. #29
    Super Moderator Bunga's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Nothing View Post
    Wasn't Heeney injured this preseason?
    Yes :-

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sp...0e2742b9b3575e

    THE Sydney Swans have suffered a blow on the eve of Christmas with young midfielder Isaac Heeney forced to undergo knee surgery.

    Heeney, 21, experienced pain during the club’s pre-season and an arthroscopy discovered cartilage damage.

    He is now recovering but won’t rejoin Swans training until the new year, with a likely return to full duties in late January.
    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sp...0e2742b9b3575e
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  18. #30
    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Wogitalia View Post
    Was better in the first half (and not good in the finals at all) but still a 103/95 split basically. No preseason was the big factor and he did seem to run out of steam a bit to me.

    Too much upside potential for me to avoid.
    100/83 from his first 9 v his last 11 in DT.

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