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Thread: Forward Midpricers

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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Anyone see what role Mathieson played this preseason?

    Priced at $365k he is an interesting pick. Scored 114 and 90 in JLT1 and 2 respectively from 69 and 83 TOG.
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Quote Originally Posted by Narkee View Post
    Anyone see what role Mathieson played this preseason?

    Priced at $365k he is an interesting pick. Scored 114 and 90 in JLT1 and 2 respectively from 69 and 83 TOG.
    Didn't see either game so can't comment on role. FF suggests inside mid. I was considering him briefly as an option to fill the Toby Greene spot (assuming you don't go with Toby and want to preserve the rest of your structure). From memory when we were looking at him as a rookie, he was a decent prospect but the biggest knock was his disposal. Interesting that his scores in JLT 1 were 83/114 at 75% eff. 10 contested possessions and 3 clearances probably explains that. Coming into his fourth year, you'd expect there to be some natural improvement and opportunity and therefore upside on the SC side. It concerns me a little that he's only played 11, 13 and 13 in his three seasons so far. At that price, you'd want him to be guaranteed best 22 and I'm not sure he's there yet.
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    There’s not a huge amount around that price range tbh. One that hasn’t been mentioned much is Rowan Marshall - taking on a fair bit of risk with that pick, but he looked really good in JLT2 and had the score to back it up. Was actually the Saints top DT scorer which is interesting. Might be too risky to start with, but he could be an out for Greene/Mathieson if they fit your structure.
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheedus View Post
    Didn't see either game so can't comment on role. FF suggests inside mid. I was considering him briefly as an option to fill the Toby Greene spot (assuming you don't go with Toby and want to preserve the rest of your structure). From memory when we were looking at him as a rookie, he was a decent prospect but the biggest knock was his disposal. Interesting that his scores in JLT 1 were 83/114 at 75% eff. 10 contested possessions and 3 clearances probably explains that. Coming into his fourth year, you'd expect there to be some natural improvement and opportunity and therefore upside on the SC side. It concerns me a little that he's only played 11, 13 and 13 in his three seasons so far. At that price, you'd want him to be guaranteed best 22 and I'm not sure he's there yet.
    It was a mixed role. HFF with good midfield stints. He did look to have improved, not playing for free kicks as much either which was nice.

    He's always been good in preseason, when he plays mid he can flat out score but the question is whether he can break into the mix. I like him more in draft formats to be honest.

    There is certainly enough midfield time there though if he can win a prime role.

    Zorko and Neale are obviously ahead of him. I think Berry is also ahead. Lyons also is ahead on what I saw. Robinson will still get his stints as will Rich, Christensen and McCarthy (got a fair few from what I saw) but I'd say he's in that pack and probably the head of it. McCluggage playing more wing not as much of a factor.
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Quote Originally Posted by Hodges View Post
    There’s not a huge amount around that price range tbh. One that hasn’t been mentioned much is Rowan Marshall - taking on a fair bit of risk with that pick, but he looked really good in JLT2 and had the score to back it up. Was actually the Saints top DT scorer which is interesting. Might be too risky to start with, but he could be an out for Greene/Mathieson if they fit your structure.
    Marshall will score well as the R1 and not well as a forward. That ruck situation is so fluid and becomes even more warped if McCartin is out for any kind of extended period as Marshall is the only one of the 3 that can play forward and could end up there by default.

    He's certainly an interesting option if he is the lone ruckman though, would be his spot to lose from there.
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Was looking at the forward midpricers and I'd totally missed that Lycett is actually a F/R when looking at him.

    Certainly enhances his case as the ruck to go with if avoiding the big guys, that possibility to end up as a forward keeper but not make it as a ruck is actually enticing.

    I've put this here though as I'm actually considering him as a pure forward play (obviously with his ruck coverage being a factor in this).

    The negative straight up is that Port play early most games for the first couple of months, which means you only get that ruck coverage on advance warning but given I reckon Gawn gets rested rather than late withdrawals and Grundy plays similarly early most games, it could actually work out pretty well. (Ruck cover scares me). If he covers for a missing ruck he's basically got that rookie forward that plays worth of hidden value in his actual average, that can be decent.

    The other negative is the obvious never scored at premium levels and there's not really any evidence that being the #1 ruck would change that for him which combines with him being in a genuine ruck share anyway that could hold him back.

    He did average 86 over the last 6 games last year (without NicNat) which includes two stinkers, he also was terrible from a fantasy perspective in the finals with 3 scores of 60 or below. In 2016 he actually averaged 83 as a KPF and 2nd ruck so he can score when resting forward, a positive but the real question is whether he can score as a ruck. The real question being, can he score against decent rucks? His finals run was obviously Grundy, Gawn and Grundy. The two stinkers to close the season were Martin and Gawn. Goldy was the only decent ruck in the 4 good games at the end so it's certainly a concern.

    The bigger concern is the ruck share for mine. Basically all the rucks who averaged 95+ (which is where I'm calling the forward premium cutoff) were solo ruckmen, NicNat the only real exception (Grundy I guess has a case with Cox) and Lycett is not even close to in their class, he's barely at the same school. So the question is will Ryder miss enough games or ruck irregularly enough that Lycett can effectively be one out? I'm also concerned that Ryder is certainly a better player still so if the game is on the line, he's going to be in the action and getting those beautiful momentum points. I reckon Lycett is just as good as Nank or Sinclair if he had the role but I'm just not sure it's there with Ryder.

    So ultimately the end question becomes can he get to 95 on a say 60/40 ruck split? I'm not sure but he's probably worth talking about a bit more than we have. Can he push to 90 in games with Ryder and maybe average 105 in the games without to pull it up? Does the ruck cover provide enough extra on top that maybe a 91 or 92 type average would suffice? FWIW Lycett at 81 was the 2nd best ruckman in a genuine ruckshare last year after NicNat, I'm not sure how to take that other than it shows that ruck shares are toxic.
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Haven't watched either of the Doggies games so was hoping someone could shed some light on Daniel's role so far? @divvydan ?
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Quote Originally Posted by Narkee View Post
    Haven't watched either of the Doggies games so was hoping someone could shed some light on Daniel's role so far? @divvydan ?
    Same role he held for the last month of last year. He's playing the AFL equivalent of a QB. Back pocket to back flank, taking kick ins, being the go to (along with Suckling) for distribution coming out of the backline. We play a team defence so he has a variety of matchups and just takes whoever is close by, even if it's the opposition resting ruckman or KPP.

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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    He seemed to be bloody everywhere, particularly in the first quarter. He was even matching up on Roughy at full back at one stage when the Doggies got done on the turnover His heat map suggests 91% defensive half.

    Of his 32 possessions, 24 were uncontested and he had 7 intercepts which is pretty impressive for a bloke of his size! Can only assume he was playing quasi loose man.

    Not a bad role but I'd be wary of Daniel. He has these sort of games where he shines and then can go completely missing in others. High 70s average for the past three seasons
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    There were a few times where he got caught as the deepest defender in the goal square in a 1on1, not ideal. Outside that he was great, plays well above his height and is a pretty solid defender.
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Quote Originally Posted by Hodges View Post
    There’s not a huge amount around that price range tbh. One that hasn’t been mentioned much is Rowan Marshall - taking on a fair bit of risk with that pick, but he looked really good in JLT2 and had the score to back it up. Was actually the Saints top DT scorer which is interesting. Might be too risky to start with, but he could be an out for Greene/Mathieson if they fit your structure.
    On a different note, Marshall played his first game for the season and scored a 114. Someone to keep an eye on, number one rucks score well and he looks a Stef Martin mobile type. I’m looking at potentially getting one price rise out of Weideman and switching if Marshall tons again.
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheedus View Post
    He seemed to be bloody everywhere, particularly in the first quarter. He was even matching up on Roughy at full back at one stage when the Doggies got done on the turnover His heat map suggests 91% defensive half.

    Of his 32 possessions, 24 were uncontested and he had 7 intercepts which is pretty impressive for a bloke of his size! Can only assume he was playing quasi loose man.

    Not a bad role but I'd be wary of Daniel. He has these sort of games where he shines and then can go completely missing in others. High 70s average for the past three seasons
    To be fair, very different role this year and the last month of last year and he's really taken to it. In a weird way there is a lot of Lloyd in him, didn't really cut it as a winger/hff but when you put him behind the ball he does love a hospital 1-2 and is very good reading the play.

    His issue in the past has been midfield minutes, he was trapped behind the Dunkley, Wallis, Libba and McLean wall that's still going, I dare say his scoring probably oscillates a bit based on how many of them were playing.

    Do note, I haven't seen either of the Dogs games this year either but I did see the end of last year and the JLT where he had the same role.

    Biggest concern of note to mine is JJ returning down back would impact total ball and would be the top priority due to his rebound ability.


    Quote Originally Posted by Hodges View Post
    On a different note, Marshall played his first game for the season and scored a 114. Someone to keep an eye on, number one rucks score well and he looks a Stef Martin mobile type. I’m looking at potentially getting one price rise out of Weideman and switching if Marshall tons again.
    Worth noting that he picked up a calf injury late in the game. Also Pierce could easily come back. I like him but there is a lot of uncertainty on that position, not sure he's worth the gamble over Worpel at the same basic price.

    He looks good though so certainly worth keeping an eye on.
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Quote Originally Posted by Wogitalia View Post
    Worth noting that he picked up a calf injury late in the game. Also Pierce could easily come back. I like him but there is a lot of uncertainty on that position, not sure he's worth the gamble over Worpel at the same basic price.

    He looks good though so certainly worth keeping an eye on.
    He’s available as an R/F in my ultimate footy league. Sitting on waivers at the moment. Tempted to grab him for Sam Jacobs but also cognisant that Longer is going to be back soon. Would be quite a steal if he remains 1st ruck for the rest of the year though...
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Just looking at Daniel further, he's basically in that same bracket as Worpel so another option for the Heeney trade. The FWD premos are an absolute crapshoot after two rounds so it could be worth a roll of the dice on either without too much downside. I like Worpel's role better and I think he's a got better prospects of being a top 6 forward. But Daniel is clearly a massive POD if Worpel was to fall away. Both have a good bye round.

    Picking up on @divvydan 's comment above, he went 100 (St.K), 120 (Nth), 75 (Carl) and 112 (Carl) in those last four rounds so yep, the correlation is there.

    I reckon the new kick in rules benefit him with more space for that first receiver role. He and Suckling were basically alternating last week and getting a heap of it. Despite most of his possessions being uncontested, it was actually his contested work, particularly when it was hot in the first quarter that stood out for me.

    As @Wogitalia says the key is the continuation of the role and the impact of JJ. For that reason I'd still be more inclined to take Worpel (if trading Heeney) but I may have to eat my words above
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheedus View Post
    Just looking at Daniel further, he's basically in that same bracket as Worpel so another option for the Heeney trade. The FWD premos are an absolute crapshoot after two rounds so it could be worth a roll of the dice on either without too much downside. I like Worpel's role better and I think he's a got better prospects of being a top 6 forward. But Daniel is clearly a massive POD if Worpel was to fall away. Both have a good bye round.

    Picking up on @divvydan 's comment above, he went 100 (St.K), 120 (Nth), 75 (Carl) and 112 (Carl) in those last four rounds so yep, the correlation is there.

    I reckon the new kick in rules benefit him with more space for that first receiver role. He and Suckling were basically alternating last week and getting a heap of it. Despite most of his possessions being uncontested, it was actually his contested work, particularly when it was hot in the first quarter that stood out for me.

    As @Wogitalia says the key is the continuation of the role and the impact of JJ. For that reason I'd still be more inclined to take Worpel (if trading Heeney) but I may have to eat my words above
    Kick in rule is an interesting component, most of the guys who take them haven't moved significantly but a few guys like Stewart, Newman, Salem and MacMillan have made hot starts (I assume Rich is also taking them?) so it could be a factor at least.

    I like Daniel in that role, he's a great ball user and decision maker, I do think his profile is very similar to Lloyd, he's creative at using the handball to get the 1-2, he kicks short and accurately that keeps the ball in the area quite often for even more receive chances.

    JJ is the worry, he's kind of the opposite, he goes long runs away from everyone, teammates included, and if he comes back and becomes a preferred option he will hurt the general opportunities. The positive though is that JJ was there for the 4 games last year and in a weird way if Daniel gets the ball to him in good spots, which he can, it actually can add the scoring chain element to Daniel.
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