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Thread: Forward Midpricers

  1. #31
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Not an awful lot of talk in here for a position group that I think is probably more viable than its ever been.

    Reckon the weak premiums and weak and expensive rookies are changing the landscape to make the midpricers more viable.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    FFC Senior Assistant Coach hendo8888's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    I currently have Steele locked in. Not sure if I'll run 2 premiums or just Dahlhaus, so I'll either go 1 or 2 other midpricers. Currently have Roughead, but I'm far from sold on him. Nankervis and Ryder have the bonus of being able to cover ruck, so they're a consideration. Miller is kind of in the mix, but probably not. Heeney was 100% locked in before he got sick. It's not a preseason if Higgins isn't tempting, which is why I won't pick him (he's consistently cheap every year for a reason).

    There's going to be 2 fantastic downgrade/sideways trade options in Heeney and Bennell.
    This post was more than likely SC based.
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  4. #33
    Moderator Athomas's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    I've got Roughy, Nankervis and Steele (as well as Ryder?) as SC forward mid-pricers so I'm all aboard!
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  5. #34
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    This year's crop of midprice forwards might be even stronger than the past two years, a ton of options here, like the backs, going to cherry pick the guys I think are particularly relevant and give the thoughts good or bad on them, unlike the backs I'm legitimately looking at this group for a couple in my side, the hard part is that I have the keeper threshold at 100 this year which means they need to show they can score that to be viable options for me.

    As mentioned in the premium thread, I drew the line at 88 as a premium so this is everyone down to about 225k where I consider the rookie threshold to be.

    Michael Walters - Booned then burned a few last year but he was amazing when he was on the field, the problem of course is that has been a major issue for him. Role is also always going to be a concern as can get trapped deep in a pretty bad team and that seems to still be their preferred role for him. Still, one to watch due to pure class. Does Matera arriving allow him to push higher?

    Roughy - Needs to get back asap and get some preseason in, which is still in doubt I believe but he finished really strong last year and showed he can still be a 100+ guy to me. His injury scares me though so I'll probably avoid given the strength of this list and his relative place on it from a price perspective, he's in the "has to be a premium" category of pricing.

    Gunston - Wasn't good last year and is a complete front runner so unless the Hawks can bounce back I don't see that changing much, also has never hit the 100+ range I'm looking for. I don't expect the Hawks to suddenly bounce back and rather expect they'll be worse so that's a no for me.

    Daniher - Was higher on my list of guys before so many others got FWD status this year but I fully expect him to go 95+ this year and don't think 100+ is beyond him. Actually think he's a legitimate shot at kicking 100 in the next couple of years, he's that good. Hard to pick though given the same reason as Roughy, there's no margin for error.

    Toby McLean - An interesting one, showed some serious potential last year, another in the ridiculously deep Dogs midfield/forward group of how to be a cannibal, just not sure how about 8 guys can all score premium levels and expect that instead they'll all just end up a bit short.

    Travis Boak - This one is really interesting. He didn't look injured last year like Gray did to explain his drop off but his role was the kind of one you don't put players of his calibre in unless they're injured. He actually looked disinterested last year which was odd. On a 3 year downward trend is also a concern. Having said that, he's broken the 100 mark a couple of times and been around it a couple more. You could argue he's a candidate to be the top scoring forward given his durability and scoring potential. Would need to see an awfully midfield heavy preseason role though to go any further than my "very interested" pile though.

    Tom Lynch - GC one... burned me last year. Burned me the year before. Expect the team will be worse and he has never sustained it. Just hard to pick based on that for me. Adelaide one also has proven he's a sub-premium level guy and I don't see that changing to kill two birds.

    Barlow - Returning from a broken leg but is back on the track, will depend on his role but think the 100+ mark might just be beyond him these days, will still watch though just in case.

    Tom Papley - Had about as bad a preseason as one could have last year and still got a lot of midfield time upon returning to the team and showed some real scoring potential in that role. It's a deep midfield and the minutes will be inconsistent which makes the 100+ unlikely to me. Very Dahlhausy in how he plays and think can push to similar levels but would pick the 90s as the maximum this year barring horrific injuries to the Swans.

    Jack Martin - Interesting one who seemed to start getting it a bit last year. Seriously talented if he can put it all together, new coach might help.

    Devon Smith - A 90+ guy priced at 80, my question is two-fold. Can he stay fit and can he score 100+. I think if he has a full time midfield role that the latter is very possible even probable, the first part seems the bigger issue. I think he'll end up in the 90s so depends where you set the keeper level. This is also if he stays fit.

    Jordan De Goey - 4 tons in his last 7 games, cancelled out by the other 3 all being stinkers but seemed to be getting it towards the end and showing why he was so highly rated. Pendles was out and that's a factor obviously in an increased role but he also showed that he is a pure midfielder and maybe the forward pocket thing isn't for him at this stage and thus should continue in there. 100+ is a massive jump but I'm watching him very closely. Is there room for a 5th guy in the 100+ group in their midfield?

    Christian Petracca - Immense talent, needs more midfield time and he can push 100+. His talent absolutely justifies consideration. The question is can he build enough of a tank to go full time midfield this year, if he can and has then I think he'll push the 100 mark.

    Darcy Parish - Don't like him as much as a few of the other high draftees because I think he's going to get passed by Smith, Springer and McGrath for midfield time, he's got talent though and if he can beat all those guys out for a prime role then he can also push towards the 100 mark on talent. I don't think he will but I do think it's possible and thus he's worth watching closely.

    Brandon Matera - Has been prolific when playing up the ground with potential to score massive scores. Has been bad when playing up forward as he relies entirely on goals at that point. The question is what will his role be? He's shown a potential 100ish range in a perfect storm scenario. Durability is also terrible though.

    George Hewitt - Has shown great scoring potential as a midfielder. Think it would take a few injuries for him to get the minutes required but is still worth knowing about in case that did happen.

    Sicily - Covered in the backs and I think he's a stronger option there. Wonder if the D/F link can be a viable one this year though, which does work in his favour as a reason to pick him if you think it can or is.

    Rhys Mathieson - Prolific midfielder who has worked massively on his engine this offseason in order to win the Rockliff midfield minutes. He's got legitimate 100+ potential in a full time midfield role. He's basically a Menegola type. Lot of competition for that spot though from some highly rated kids.

    Rory Lobb - Legitimate 100+ potential but I think the 90-100 range that most rucks fall in is more likely. His ruck skills are the interesting component and largely an unknown, if he can score well as a ruck and given his around the ground and goal scoring ability then he becomes a genuine super-ruck potential guy, which is the 110+ range. Had 108 and 129 in the two finals without Mumford, that's a massive litmus test to have passed for his scoring potential. If he as a R/F he'd be locked already, even then I think he's going to be awfully hard to pass up. You're looking at a likely 95, possibly 110 guy.

    Daniel Wells - Too good to not mention at his best, durability is horrific though so would take a pretty perfect scenario again.

    Jesse Hogan - Scary talented, had possibly the worst season I can remember for anyone in his personal life last year. He's got the talent to score in the 100 range, his team should be even better this year.

    Charlie Curnow - Another prodigious talent with a monster engine. Needs the team to improve and his role to become more substantial, both are plausible. Not sure he can push quite high enough this year though. Think he's likely to be scraping the 90 mark in a very strong outcome.

    Charlie Cameron - Will depend on how they use him at Brisbane but guys who can tackle like that can score massively in the right role.

    Sam Petrovski-Seton - Really talented, probably a couple of years early as I reckon there is still a bit of engine building to be done, premium potential though probably in the future.

    Jake Stringer - Midfield role would be everything here, even then I think 100+ is going to be really hard to manage but I do think if he is midfield fit it will help him everywhere. Will be watching very closely because he's got scary potential as a midfielder. He's got the Dangerfield/Martin physical traits and the arrogance to back it in and tear contests open.

    Brett Deledio - Have to think he's done at this point but who knows. If he can get fit and stay fit then he can score 100+ in many roles and must be watched closely as a result.

    Allen Christensen - Actually putting together a preseason, not sure he can score 100+ but he can score 90+ and he's cheap enough where that could do the trick. Durability is woeful though and that will be the big issue. Hard to find a body part he hasn't hurt.

    Harley Bennell - Never know... it seems unlikelier by the day but his talent is still on the absurd level and while he's punching on with bouncers there hasn't been any injuries so far which is the good news.



    It's a seriously long list of guys that piqued my interest. A lot of them are in the have to succeed category that makes them harder to pick, in fact most of them fall into that for mine which I think should be basically anyone 300k+ with how the price changes work.

    Going to be interesting because it's easy to justify taking 2 or 3 of these guys.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

  6. #35
    FFC Football Operations Manager KickItToButch's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Think the best 2 options atm would have to be R Lobb and D Smith, depending on what type of role he has.




  7. #36
    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Petracca and Stringer are probably the main two I'm interested in at this point but will probably need to go back to see just how strong of a scorer both were in the juniors to see whether they're worth the risk. Petracca is a classy player but only scored one 100+ score in DT last year so he's a pretty big risk/requires a big jump. I suppose Stringer is exactly the same really, where he's posted very few 100 scores and you're really banking on him seeing a lot more midfield time and excelling to make it. I think they're both guys I'd like to toy with in my team but if I play it 'smart', neither will be in my team.

    Potential interest in Barlow but not much else really appeals to me from a DT perspective from the above list.

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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Be a ballsy pick but one worth keeping an eye on for SC will be Wayne Milera, I think he's a decent chance to take over Brodie Smith's role at half back and with the way he uses the ball it would make sense to get it in his hands. Could potentially help him find a bit more of it but he's someone that could also potentially be shut down if he does start to perform at a high standard.

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  10. #38
    FFC General Manager Crow-mo's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    I've got my eye on Petracca and Christensen.
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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Hayden Crozier is officially on my watchlist. Article on AFL suggesting the primary reason he joined the Dogs was because they intend to use him in by far his best role off HB. Has been a very good (solid 90ish guy) off the HB flank previously with Freo. Dogs really only have JJ there from the main guys last year with Boyd and Murphy retiring, Boyd and JJ proved there can be two premium scorers from their group and Crozier would be 2nd behind JJ on rebound and ball use and probably 2nd behind Wood as an intercept option also.

    Think he's probably an unlikely keeper but he should push the ball park and make a lot of cash in the right role.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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  13. #40
    Moderator Notorious_29's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Has anyone put any thought into Jesse Hogan at all? Went through hell last year with his illness, injuries and personal grievances.

    Typically players can really break out in that third season, he's coming into his fourth now and we've seen him kick 40 goals in each of his first two seasons. Just reading he has pretty much had the perfect pre-season, hasn't missed a session and has scored well in both NAB cup games - 106 (13 possessions, 7 marks and 3 goals) + 80 (21 possessions, 7 marks and 2 goals). I'm personally predicting the demons to give it a red hot crack this year - top 4 or not far off. Even mention of him spending time through the midfield (who isn't at Melbourne though). If he stays fit I don't see why he can't go close to kicking 60 goals.

    An average of 95 makes him a super solid pick and 90 would still be a big win (SC), considering he's priced @ $383k. We've seen similar types of players in Tom Lynch and Josh Kennedy go at 90-95ppg scoring.

    Just one I found intriguing after doing a little more digging, the risk is he's every chance to have a really good season and still fall in that 75-85ppg bracket and not be good enough as a forward premium.

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Yeah I have had Hogan on the watch list all preseason.

    For me I just liked Petracca a bit more but Hogan was getting some CBA attendances, think it was more of the Buddy kind where the plan is to try and get him involved early (was mostly to start game/half) or if he has gone cold and just to try and create matchup problems when he goes back.

    News that Viney will probably miss the first month or so doesn't hurt the starting prospects of everyone he impacts as far as roles though it obviously hurts the team a bit by losing a very good player.

    Hogan and Petracca almost feels like the risk takers version of Heeney and Franklin to me
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Yeah I see no reason why Hogan cant have a Jeremy Cameron like breakout this year. I think the midfield stuff is overblown a bit, he doesnt look very instinctual around the ball - like Wogi said probably just to get him involved in games where he is quiet. Which is certainly a positive. Certainly think he could push keeper numbers this year if the Dees do improve as we are expecting, should get a heap of supply.
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    Super Moderator divvydan's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    The longer I look at my team, the more I dislike most of the premium forwards (especially SC) and the more I start looking at the likes of Dunkley/Bell/Christensen and even Impey despite his higher price. I'm not including guys like Devon Smith, Petracca and Sicily in this are they're more low end keepers. Lobb having a good preseason could've given me a lock there and maybe I wouldn't have to even consider it.

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  19. #44
    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Is there any chance Jack could bounce back after his 2017 season? I hate to suggest him as he looked like absolute trash for a good section of the 2017 season, however you look from 2012-2016 and he averaged 90+ DT every season and 89.6 SC for all of those whilst only missing 2 games during that period.

    In my desperate search to find someone I don't mind the prospect of, Jack is probably someone that stands out more then the other options under that 600k mark in RDT which says a lot about the lower end premiums/midpricers in RDT (outside of the obvious couple of picks).

    He really looked cooked last year though so I'm not sure I could pick him, but if he was to get midfield time (which I don't know how likely/unlikely that is) it could see him jump back up.


    The other one worth mentioning in Robbie Gray given prior to his 2017 average of 81.2 he'd gone 3 years of 96+. The difference here is him playing as a full time midfielder vs going back to the forward line - I cannot remember if the forward move was just to help the side or if it was a result of an injury/underdone pre season. Obviously with them beefing up their midfield and his play in the forward line, he'll continue to play forward, but could he get more midfield minutes then he might have last year? Edit: Just remember he's out for round 1 which really doesn't make him all that great of an option given he'll be missing again in 7 odd weeks.


    God damn I hate the forward options this year.

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    FFC Football Operations Manager Hodges's Avatar
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    Re: Forward Midpricers

    Quote Originally Posted by divvydan View Post
    The longer I look at my team, the more I dislike most of the premium forwards (especially SC) and the more I start looking at the likes of Dunkley/Bell/Christensen and even Impey despite his higher price. I'm not including guys like Devon Smith, Petracca and Sicily in this are they're more low end keepers. Lobb having a good preseason could've given me a lock there and maybe I wouldn't have to even consider it.
    Bell seems to be right on the cusp of selection, I think if he is named R1 then its a worthwhile pick. Bundy im still unsure on, has the history but role seems the questionable part. Dunkley is my big smokey this year, he was on the premium track before injury ruined last season. I have no doubt he can score, question that I have is over his disposal. His DE% never seems that good, if the Dogs keep him out of the mid rotations because of it it could stop him getting back to those 85+ scores.

    I've been re-evaluating the midpricers this year and i'm starting to question a few of them. The low end keeper guys like Lambert, Walters, Cameron and Roughy are interesting to me. Walters has his well publicised finish to last year, same for Lambert - seems risky on paper but much less of a risk than Petracca/Smith for only 50k more. Cameron was averaging 95 until injuries took hold late in the season, big fan of his but given the injuries were repeat soft tissue ones he is a hard sell.

    Roughy is the one i've kind of locked onto. There was an article posted a couple of days back that said he suffered loss of feeling in his feet last season due to side effects from the cancer therapy. He said he went from maybe 70% start of season to about 90% by seasons end, was affecting him being able to kick the ball mainly. Back half of last year Roughy averaged 95, he says he has full feeling back in his feet now so it seems safe to assume he can maintain that. He had 5 years in a row averaging 95+, liking him a lot this year based off that news.
    Only ever talking SC

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