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Thread: Rucks

  1. #211
    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Is Darcy injured at the moment?

  2. #212
    FFC Football Operations Manager Nothing's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    Is Darcy injured at the moment?
    Yep, still a couple of weeks away.

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    Re: Rucks

    Quote Originally Posted by divvydan View Post
    Sandilands has been ruled out of this week's match against Collingwood with concussion. Grundy winners grinning from ear to ear.
    That pick is literally pure gold. Gets injured and doesn't even miss a game or slow down. Finally faces the guy who has been ruck aids and he knocks himself out trying to pull the wings off a fly and will miss the game.

    Grundy can't be touched, maybe I'll buy him this week just to see if he can avoid the ultimate curse...
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    It's way too early still but I'm bored so whatever, and I already got rolling on it in the way too early thread so figured I'd relocate to the right thread now that the draft is done and the 2019 season is officially underway!

    Adelaide - Sam Jacobs - Hard to see him losing the job at the start of the year at the very least but even coming off a stinker that sees him probably 10 points underpriced it's just hard to sell for mine. His best couple of seasons were great but he's basically been a shadow of himself since the 1m rule came in and he started doing his gay boxing T-Rex thing. Honestly the couple of rookie listed guys are probably of more interest to me purely on the "if something happened to Jacobs" train of thought.

    Brisbane -
    Stef Martin - Actually had a great bounceback year, learned to score alright with a 2nd ruck and was still an absolute mile off the pace. Which kind of sums it up for me personally, even his best seasons haven't matched the current standard that has been set which makes paying his highest starting price in 3 years a really hard sell.

    Carlton - Matt Kreuzer - This is probably the most interesting name of them all... His finish to 2017 was absurd and on the level of what Grundy went to this year. His durability however is absolutely awful which is hard sell part one. He only matched the level required for half a season, which is issue #2 and the fact he's never been a premium outside of that is a major factor. The positives of course is that he'll be stupid cheap, priced at 80 before any discount (unlikely but possible), his team just traded their first pick which means they have to win as many games as possible to avoid looking stupid, aka no point in tanking this year which means no shelving the best players, resting them for speculative reasons and stuff like that and to call their backup situation awful would be generous. Still probably too expensive given what he'd likely need to do to payoff and the risks that he gets injured 10 minutes into round 1 again...

    Collingwood - Brodie Grundy - Probably the safest starting pick of the bunch. Doesn't have the scoring history of Gawn but his durability is far better, his age profile and track record supports that last year was what he was building towards and there isn't any good reason he can't hover in that range. I think that 125 is sustainable for him with his style meaning he has many ways to score. The only real question for mine is whether he will be that consistent again where he had just 3 scores under 100 (95. 98 and 99) for the season which meant his price just went up, up, up and away and never came back down, that's a perfect starting pick premium if he does it again... I'm finding it very hard to make a case against him other than he will be expensive but honestly, rucks are a nightmare position and I'll comfortably pay a premium to get it right from the start and not have to think about it, other positions are just soo much easier to fix if you get it wrong.

    Essendon - Tom Bellchambers/Zac Clarke - Is the incumbent but does have a pretty shady durability record. Has had 1.5 good seasons now but while I actually rate him as a player I think the ruck bar has been set at a level that is quite simply beyond him and given his durability I don't see a reason to punt. Zac Clarke the far more interesting name here, 2 years out of the game with a 2016 averaged of just 52 would strongly support he should be base priced, will be interesting to see how/if he is used, for those who don't follow state leagues at all, he dominated for Subi this year in the WAFL and was a clear class above and actually stayed fit (always his issue at Freo). His couple of stints of healthy football at Freo were excellent, especially the followup work, of course was stuck out of position and behind Sandi a lot but his 96 average when he wasn't was not a fluke. Unfortunately knee injuries (among others) basically knocked him out from that point on. At his best he should give TBC a genuine battle for the #1 gig (still shocked the Eagles let him be snatched from under them!), he's capable of playing as a forward/ruck which could get him games. He's probably the best R3 candidate right now that i can think of but will be worth watching, if TBC were to be injured or it became clear Clarke was taking the #1 gig then he'd absolutely be starter worthy as a rookie priced player.

    Freo - Sandi until it's Darcy - Basically they ruin each other here, Sandi will be accurately priced this year so nothing to chase, durability is all time bad at this point. Darcy wont score decently until Sandi is gone and is too expensive anyway. Nothing to see here basically.

    Geelong - No Idea - Abbott/Stanley/Smith seem to have a race for the spot. Stanley was sneaky good last year before another injury derailed him, Smith was non-existent and seems to be last. Abbott was actually really good to close out the season but is in the rehab group himself right now. Honestly, this seems like 3 guys who could all average 90-100 as the #1 guy, which probably wouldn't be enough from any of them given where they'll likely be priced although Smith with enough discount could at least come under consideration if he genuinely won the gig and looked set to hold it... Still, little interest here.

    GC - Witts - Incumbent, looks likely to hold the spot and continue to score as he has, not enough strings, no midfield support, makes it hard to make a case for him being capable of going to the next level, that's not to say he couldn't, he's at the perfect age for a bit of a leap, but I'd still bet all my money on him staying around where he is than getting to the Grundy/Gawn level.

    GWS - Cluster**** - Mumford is interesting but his ****ing epic cocaine hoovering has kind of cooked him as a starting pick unless there is a genuinely viable R3 or he's somehow cheap enough to be the R3. Averaged 98 in 2017 so even with a full discount he'd be way too expensive as an R3, would need to basically be treated as a rookie rather than a previous player, not unprecedented but would be very unlikely (no idea how they'll treat the new list that is essentially only eligible for guys who got forced into retirement and are back!). If he's he #1 with that midfield around him and he can stay fit then 95 is well within his capability still which instantly makes him interesting if he's priced in the 60 range but also means keeper is not in his range and really with his durability it's not something anyone should be thinking. Best case you're looking at a bye stepladder, something he's actually perfect for with the r14 bye following Gawn and Grundy's r13 byes (Kreuzer also ticks this box for anyone wondering) but his durability and likelihood of being rested combined with the early suspension makes it hard. He's probably mostly there as the best bailout at r3 type of play if something goes really wrong. Theoretically Dawson Simpson could win this gig, he was actually alright prior to getting injured last year. They also have their rookie who is the top rated rookie ruck, Briggs is a solid unit who is a capable forward/back as well so he's a real chance to actually play early while Patton is out still especially.

    Hawthorn - McEvoy - Basically the same as Stef Martin, he just had his best season since 2012 and was still 30 points off the pace. He's probably one of the better choices if you want to play the "Gawn and Grundy can't do it again" game and take them on to both drop back into the 105 range. That's probably his strongest case as a pick, which says it all really.

    Port - Ryder/Lycett - Ryder is way underpriced on his best but the history of guys with the kind of old man injuries he had last year bouncing back to their best is basically Matt Boyd after a position change and that's it. Ryder isn't getting a favourable position change so that's out the window. He's in the Deledio wagon now for mine. Throw in that they paid Lycett like an elite ruckman and that means they basically have to play him now and you've got a ruck share. Effectively wipes both off the table for mine.

    Melbourne -
    Gawn - This one is probably the more interesting of the Gawn/Grundy pair as starters. Obvious factor one is his durability record, which is very all or nothing, a strong preseason has meant 22 games, any kind of interruption has meant big chunks missed. Secondary factor is the recruitment of Preuss which still makes zero sense but the only explanation I can create for why Preuss would do it is if they've guaranteed him games whether with Gawn or to rest Gawn, still believe it when I see it. Other interesting factor is how they deploy May and Lever along with everyone else, Gawn scores very well floating back to help the defense but if you've already got Lever who will sell out the entire defense to chase intercepts, May who also likes to play the intercept sweeper role (and is better at it than Lever but also better as a defender), Hibberd also likes that role and Frost was actually really good this year, I actually still wouldn't be shocked if May ends up forward but if he doesn't that's a lot of interceptors who will probably spoil each other. Really I'm scraping the bottom of the barrel for reasons to not pick him, durability is really the only one and structure of your side is the only reason to be looking for that reason. I think Grundy is the safer pick but Gawn has more runs on the board.

    North - Goldstein - No competition threat, that's for sure. Goldy is the only man to match the Grundy and Gawn level of last year that's playing but it's 4 years ago, he was actually pretty good over the last 14 rounds where he averaged 110, I watched him and he was scored outrageously harshly in that period, he could easily have averaged 125 in that period if he was scored the way Gawn and Grundy were, he had HOtA that scored 1 point on multiple occasions and worse. He lost his golden ticket and it showed in his scoring, golden tickets are fickle but it's pretty rare to lose one to the level Goldy did last year and get it back, it's also possible but I think given his age, durability record (plays through a lot of injuries the last few years, good and bad of that) it's just hard to argue he can reach the level needed. He's probably the other name you could go for if betting against Gawn/Grundy but honestly I think Kreuzer/Mumford are probably better value, I mean they at least give the option to be wrong on your bet against Grundy/Gawn and still come out a winner while Goldstein you're basically all in on those two failing.

    Richmond - Nankervis - The other interesting one, was actually a decent enough pick last year but for Grundy (common theme here) going supersaiyan and re-setting the threshold. Should be a year fitter, more confident and better, still hard to see him pushing to that higher level, he's good when he wins the hitout but doesn't win enough and I think given his lack of height that's probably going to be an ongoing issue. Probably gets a bit better around the ground again but realistically I think you're looking at Mumford/Stef type numbers, not Grundy/Gawn figures. Worth watching though.

    St Kilda - Cluster**** - Longer, Marshall and Pierce seemingly form a 3 lane path to nowhere. Longer is shit, we know he's shit, he know's he's shit, St Kilda seem to think they can still polish a turd. The positive is he'll be really cheap, the negative is that he's shit, realistically if his discount is enough he could at least be an R3 type option. Not going to change the fact that he is really bad at football. Marshall actually had a very promising finish to the season playing as a F/R and backing up Pierce, of course the result of that being he's likely priced himself out of the market and I have to believe he'd go out if all the forwards were fit. Pierce similarly wasn't bad to end the season but also probably priced himself out and again he'd have to win the #1 ruck role. Realistically they're all going to be awkwardly priced and none of them have shown they can score near the level required. Longer is almost certainly the worst player of the 3 but he's probably the most fantasy relevant if he gets cheap enough and actually shows something in the preseason.

    Sydney - Sinclair - Speaking of cluster****s. Tippett 2 years out of the game is probably still the best ruckman on this list. Sinclair was admirable around the ground but an embarrassment in the ruck. His best role (outside of NEAFL...) is still as the 3rd tall forward and backup ruckman, he's generally a better ruck than other teams backups and he's generally a good enough forward and pack crasher to justify selection in this role. As a #1 ruck he's just too much of a liability in the stoppages to make up for it with decent weight throwing skills. It's a shame because he tries so hard and fights the good fight so you want him to succeed but some guys have it and some just don't. Naismith comes back from the ACL but not sure where he is at, he's our best ruckman but offers little else, he'd be cheap though with a full discount but hard to mount any case for him regardless of that. Steer clear basically. Cameron the other one if he were to end up the #1 ruck.

    West Coast -
    Cluster**** - Same deal here, NicNat is the #1 but all the reports seem to support that he's having massive issues getting back again, seems to be mostly mental as he had it last time as well but who knows. The reality is that he should have had a round 1 target if things were going great, round 5 is the reasonable target in general and then anything after that indicates delays and issues and most of the talk seems to be round 16+ if at all. Considering that this position is no wide open. Vardy would be interestingly priced as the #1 and almost unbackable because of durability to hold that spot, Hickey will be too expensive if he wins it given he's basically max priced with little upside other than escaping GC/St Kilda trainwrecks, ok maybe there is some real upside... He's actually flashed some good stuff and being at a real club could legitimately change things for him. Brooksby by all accounts is basically the SA equivalent of Clarke without the AFL track record behind him, he should also be really cheap and has looked serviceable. He'd be a decent option if he won the #1 gig which is absolutely possible, he's a passable player who will train his heart out, Hickey has more natural talent but he's a well know pea-heart so could easily find himself in the doghouse again and Vardy is always a chance of injury when he sneezes such is his durability record.

    Western Bulldogs - Tim English - Would seem to be his job to lose to me, Trengove was serviceable last year but English has sky potential and I don't see any reason to delay that baptism of fire that he's going to endure as such a skinny kid. Personally think he's a couple of years away from fantasy relevance still but the kids a good one and I think he can be fantasy relevant in a couple of years such is his talent, it's just going to take a while for him to reach it. Trengove may actually be the more interesting option if they do go with experience and keep developing English in the magoos. He's likely to get back eligibility (certain even) and averaged a really solid 98 over his last 5 games which isn't inconsistent with the 90 odd he averaged in the ruck with Port. Hard to make a case he'd ruck all season but if he did he's a great midprice defender sleeper pick.

    To me rucks looks pretty simple this year...

    GG -
    Double premium of Gawn and Grundy. For me this looks likely to be the main play.

    Mumford/Kreuzer - Probably limited to one given durability/suspension/etc but both will be likely 30 point plays if they're fit and firing, that's a very workable midprice outcome as you hope that Grundy/Gawn fall back on last season. They really seem to me to be the only logical plays for betting against Gawn/Grundy at the moment. There are a few other names likely to be in the same price range that could also be plausible options but those two stand out to me given scoring potential, Kreuzer in particular could push the premium level with a perfect storm.

    Goldstein/Martin - The other punt against the Gawn/Grundy combo, basically backing one or both of these two to be 110-115 guys and one or both of Grundy/Gawn to also fall back into that category. Risk gets higher here because you'd have to get the right guy right on both sides of the coin or you're ****ed.

    Rookie Priced - Clarke/Brooksby probably the leaders at this point, maybe Briggs if Simpson and Mumford run into each other and both implode during preseason (plausible given durability records and size of the pair!). These guys make things very interesting if one of them does win the #1 ruck role.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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  6. #215
    Moderator Athomas's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Agreed Wogi - seems fairly limited in options unless something came up. (For example Longer LTI, I'd at least look at Pierce if priced reasonably enough)

    Someone at the Pies (can't remember who) was trying to talk Grundy's season down as unsustianable for 2019 / too much load in 2018, but I'd agree that I'd probably suck it up and pick him, expect clear top 2 ruck.

    Preuss is definitely a factor - I'm tipping roughly that he will play 4-5 games including 2-3 as lone ruck as rests for Gawn. Just makes sense that they had no-one to rest Gawn with last year but can afford to do it a couple of times in 2019. And I assume they will play them together on rare occasion (v WCE for example with multiple rucks) which would surely hurt Gawn a little.

    I can't really justify Kreuzer, but he'd be a starting pick if anything with the idea to trade up to the other of Gawn/Grundy.

    Goldy is definitely an option too, Preuss ended up being a non-factor in 2018 but he will certainly be a non-factor in 2019

    At this early stage (fun to look back on in March) I think I'd go with a ruck combo of:

    R1: Grundy/Gawn
    R2: Kreuzer/Goldy
    R3: Base rookie
    with the idea to possibly trade to whichever R1 I don't start at an appropriate time (aka when Kreuzer gets injured )
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  7. #216
    Super Moderator Bunga's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    This guy looks a great rookie price bench option :-

    DARCY FORT (GEELONG, PICK 65)
    Recruited from: Central District, SANFL
    Estimated 2019 SuperCoach starting price: $117,300
    2018 SuperCoach average: 123

    Mark him down as a sneaky bench option — and he could be a lot more. The Cats need a ruckman and the 205cm 25-year-old could be the man. He has to overtake the inconsistent Zac Smith, injury-prone Rhys Stanley and fellow mature-ager Ryan Abbott, but his numbers stack up. The former Geelong junior averaged 16 disposals and 42 hitouts (including a crazy 72 in one game) in the SANFL.
    SC is FFC's number 1 fantasy game

  8. #217
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Be nice if he could scam the R/F status!
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

  9. #218
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    So SC Picker is open and official list and prices are there...

    Rucks my first one to go through as it's the smallest so why not take the easy kill..

    Premiums

    Gawn/Grundy - Really the only two who interest me at this point.

    Goldy - Can see the case, I'm just not going to be making it.

    Ryder - 490k, not cheap enough for me to be looking at him given durability and Lycett.

    Midprice

    Kreuzer - 433k is very cheap for what he can produce. Absolutely comes into consideration at that price, if he's fit (big if) and firing.

    Lobb - 411k... don't like it as I think he plays forward where he's pretty accurately priced but worth a mention as he has R/F.

    Abbott/Z. Smith - 341k/331k - Both could make enough cash if they won the #1 job to at least be worth watching.

    Mumford - 320k, it's a bit no mans landy for mine given we have no idea where he's at but I'll absolutely be watching in the preseason, basically priced at 60ppg so would need to go somewhere in the 90ish range to probably justify his selection given you'd need a trade and be giving up a rookie somewhere while downgrading a premium to fund it.

    Vardy - R/F at 307k, if he's somehow fit and falls into the #1 gig early in the season, then he'd at least be worth a peak, that's about it for now.

    Longer - 261k is very cheap but he's also rubbish so it's hard to make a case that even as a standout #1 ruck he could score well enough, even at that price. Still, that ruck job is of interest.

    Naismith - 251k is back on the track and should be good for round 1, his inability to score outside hitouts though probably hasn't changed so hard to sell the upside.

    Preuss - 240k would probably only be worth this price if Gawn were to get injured but that is absolutely possible given his history so worth noting.

    Pierce - 236k, like Longer I'm not sure he can score enough, even at this price, but he's borderline rookie priced here so if he wins the #1 gig he's certainly an intriguing option.

    Rookies


    Brooksby - 200k is first round pick territory, similar to Vardy, if he had that #1 gig for a the first month and a bit, he could be worth picking as a cash cow, even as a starting pick given how well rucks score in that role. Will be watching.

    Clarke - 143k, probably the pick of the rookie priced right now. Both he and TBC are capable of playing as 2nd ruck types, so could well play together, could legitimately beat TBC if he's fit and then of course always the TBC injury factor that is always in play.

    Fort - 117k is worth watching as per above.

    Schenslog(GEE)/Bines(WCE) - Are the only base price DPP guys if people go that rolling donut path.

    There are another 6 under 125k DPP guys, 2 more are WCE/GEE so unless Williams or Jarvis is likely to play there is probably no point wasting extra cash on them over the above-mentioned. Rich, Ade, GC and NM are the other 4 so those are the 6 byes to look at for this purpose.

    My first draft is likely going to roll with the Gawn, Grundy and Clarke trio and go from there, if someone cheaper and better than Clarke, that's gravy, I'd be tempted to pay the extra for Brooksby/Pierce or Lower if they're playing. I'd also be tempted to start Mumford and/or Kreuzer if they look cherry ripe and/or either of Gawn/Grundy did not. Those are probably all the names I'm watching at this point in time.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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