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Thread: Rucks

  1. #271
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Quote Originally Posted by Hodges View Post
    Interesting option that’s for sure, will have to have a closer look. My quest for a ruck led me to researching Andrew Phillips and Matty Lobbe, so I’m open to all ideas right now

    It might be time to just put in the big two and walk away

    Seriously though, given the names people are coming up with to try and solve this problem it really does feel like one of those "take the medicine" situations.
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    FFC Football Operations Manager Hodges's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Pretty much that. Im still hoping that Grundy has a huge stinker in JLT2 because this is a huge decision right now. Stanley does look like a solid option, but again is in that weird range where he wont match Grundy so you are paying 470k for a guy that will need an upgrade.

    Watching the Port game today, Westhoff has come straight into contention as my R2. Looks to still have a license to roam, mainly forward but he has had plenty of ball in the defensive/mid/wing positions. If he can stick around that 95+ average, then thats good enough for F6 and above. Can hold down R2 until Grundy levels out in price and gains fitness.
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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Quote Originally Posted by Hodges View Post
    Pretty much that. Im still hoping that Grundy has a huge stinker in JLT2 because this is a huge decision right now. Stanley does look like a solid option, but again is in that weird range where he wont match Grundy so you are paying 470k for a guy that will need an upgrade.

    Watching the Port game today, Westhoff has come straight into contention as my R2. Looks to still have a license to roam, mainly forward but he has had plenty of ball in the defensive/mid/wing positions. If he can stick around that 95+ average, then thats good enough for F6 and above. Can hold down R2 until Grundy levels out in price and gains fitness.
    Can't take much of anything from that joke of a game.

    For mine I want Grundy and Gawn to both smash it and just give me the confidence to roll. Worst case for mine is they both score in that 90-110 range and give me doubt. A stinker would make things interesting though, my brain probably just goes with "glad he got that out of the way" though.
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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Yeah I think I'd rather Grundy put up a big score and just settle it. If he looks average then it means I have to consider the other options which really are slim pickings. Basically going for a Jacobs type, hoping to get a 20 point gain and then making the swap at some point during the season or you go low, hope the guy plays every week and look to make the move early. I do like what I can do with my team with the extra cash from going Grundy > Jacobs for example though.

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    FFC Football Operations Manager Hodges's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Quote Originally Posted by Wogitalia View Post
    Can't take much of anything from that joke of a game.

    For mine I want Grundy and Gawn to both smash it and just give me the confidence to roll. Worst case for mine is they both score in that 90-110 range and give me doubt. A stinker would make things interesting though, my brain probably just goes with "glad he got that out of the way" though.
    You cant take anything stats/score wise from that game, but you can still watch roles. I saw you mention circle work in the JLT thread which is definitely true, but it’s more about who has the license to do that. Westhoff when he is allowed to roam is a premium forward, and that’s exactly what he did in this game. Pressure or not doesn’t really matter, that’s a game plan thing.
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    FFC Bag Carrier Wheedus's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    I’m leaning Wogi’s way now. The speculative picks in the backs look far more viable to offset the impact of value drop. If there was an equivalent of players in the Brodie Smith to Zac Williams range in the rucks that would change things but they just ain’t there. Stanley prob the only one who comes close but there are some big risks with him as Wogi outlined above.
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  8. #277
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Quote Originally Posted by Hodges View Post
    You cant take anything stats/score wise from that game, but you can still watch roles. I saw you mention circle work in the JLT thread which is definitely true, but it’s more about who has the license to do that. Westhoff when he is allowed to roam is a premium forward, and that’s exactly what he did in this game. Pressure or not doesn’t really matter, that’s a game plan thing.
    My problem with Westhoff is pretty simple. for 5 years he has scored between 85 and 98, with the 98 being 5 years ago and the other 4 all being below 95, until last year when he started rucking, several games as the #1 ruck, when he made the big jump up to 101. Basically he's been a borderline premium (based on the starting level this year) once in 5 years when not rucking and his entire score increase last year from the 4 years before is pretty much hitouts and tackles from that ruck role. They now have two ruckmen ahead of him and I don't expect him to ruck much at all which for me is a strong reason to not start him.

    He's a great upgrade target if he falls back into the 90s though, would come down nicely in price, DPP, great durability but honestly, unless you think he can sustain 101+ at the very least I don't think he's a great starting pick when you'd be essentially taking him as one of your forward premiums and still having to get the right one of Gawn/Grundy (I can't split them...) and probably losing value on him instead.

    I guess it does come down to how firm your belief is that Gawn/Grundy are going to fall massively, maybe copping 5 points on Westhoff is better than 20 on those two if you think they fall that far which I guess is the big judgement call. The positive with Westhoff is that he is a likely premium even if I think he's dropping from the top end to the low end, the negative is if he eats one of those low end premium spots it's more pressure on anyone else you start with.


    Quote Originally Posted by Wheedus View Post
    I’m leaning Wogi’s way now. The speculative picks in the backs look far more viable to offset the impact of value drop. If there was an equivalent of players in the Brodie Smith to Zac Williams range in the rucks that would change things but they just ain’t there. Stanley prob the only one who comes close but there are some big risks with him as Wogi outlined above.
    I'm still looking for it but I basically see Jacobs, Goldstein, Hickey, Pierce, Kreuzer, Mumford and Stanley as the guys who can conceivably add the value needed and I don't really like any of them to do it.

    The other element is that while most would agree that a drop off is likely from one or both of Grundy and Gawn, there is absolutely the scenario where neither of them drops off and certainly that one of them doesn't, which also makes the whole going against them have that extra kicker that probably has been undermentioned as an outcome. If Gawn and Grundy hang around the 125 mark again this year, even getting 20 points is probably going to be a pretty bad result from the above names (Goldy obviously the exception as 20 for him would get him to the 125 level and be a big win!).
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  9. #278
    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Still can't settle on Grundy completely.

    Only 75 DT against Carlton with 17 touches and 32 hitouts from 88% TOG. TOG suggests he must be reasonably fit to play that amount but a pretty dull score given he's someone that averaged 120 last year and only had one sub 80 score for the season. Again, it's only pre season so it's just blowing the cob webs out etc. K:H ratio pretty odd right now as divvy pointed out in the chat, has had 6 kicks and 26 handballs combined in the two games which is pretty eye opening. Last year he had 206 kicks and 319 handballs so the ratio is way off. That said, against the Dockers (not much competition in Lobb and Jones) he scored 101 DT - 15 touches, 5 tackles and 46 hitouts which is strong.


    I guess for me, he's going to be the second most expensive player in my squad at the moment and he'll be priced above that 120 average he put up last year so his price will really only go one way. Even if he was averaging 100-105 for the first 6-8 games, that would be a big drop in price and if you can ride someone that improves their average by 20 odd it would be a decent turn around if you could make the swap early but that's far easier said than done.

    I think I'm really looking at 3 other options myself if I don't go with Grundy.

    Martin - Save yourself 130k for someone that averaged 101.3 last year and you've got the potential for him to get to the 110 mark as he did in 14/15. It is 4 years later and he is 33 so those kind of numbers might be behind him now. Was a pretty consistent ruckman last year though and you'd likely only need to move him to Grundy if the averages stay the same but that could be done later.

    Jacobs - Looks like the #1 ruck spot is his to lose again now after he got the go ahead over O'Brien v GWS. Has been said multiple times that he was carrying injuries last year that he would have rested for had we had any stock ready to go but both backup options were injured so he played through the pain (think it was a back issue). So that might help explain the drop in average from his previous few seasons. He also seems to be a guy who is better every second season so he's kinda due... I feel with Jacobs you'd be hoping to ride him to a 100 point avg early on and then make the flip with Grundy after he's had a drop in price and he looks good to go. Managed a 107 DT against GWS which wasn't a bad sign, had 22 touches as well which is nice to see. Not sure he's someone you want to carry for the entire season, think we're at the stage we'll try rest him for a few games to blood O'Brien more and keep him fresh for a hopeful deep run into the finals. I still also find him painful to watch, just moves like a dinosaur and gives me the shits but that's ruckman for 80% of the teams.

    Pierce/Clarke - Go cheap. If Pierce gets a game as the #1 ruck he should be good for at least 70 odd, treat him like an expensive rookie and look to make the swap as an early upgrade. Clarke the same, won't get the #1 title but if he's also playing you can at least combine then and play whoever seems to be scoring better of the two.


    I don't see Grundy holding his value at all and even maintaining the average would be an impressive effort given he had the extra long season last year, so a slower start to the pre season then the injury. I think once he gets going he'll be hard to stop again but he pretty much needs to start out of the gates to maintain that 2018 average. I just keep coming back to how useful the cash saved could be elsewhere in my squad at the moment. Pretty much going to save 130/300/580k with the above options.

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  11. #279
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    I'm looking at the rucks like this as of now with the following outcomes... (note I'm working from SC starting points because at this point I don't even know the DT starting points)

    Your options right now are essentially...

    GG - Both Gawn and Grundy.

    1G - One of Gawn or Grundy and someone else.

    0G - No Gawn or Grundy.

    Let's go with GG first and the possible outcomes.

    1. They sustain their scoring levels - Massive win, I'd say they individually have somewhere around a 25% chance to achieve this which puts it at about 6% chance that this happens. (sustain being staying ~120+)

    2. One sustains, One drops back to 110-120 range - Probably still a win. To lose basically requires that people get the one who drops right and that someone else raises into that range. I'd say both have somewhere in the 55-75% chance of dropping back into this range. That creates a 15% chance for each scenario, so 30% chance overall.

    3. One sustains, one fails - For this I'm saying less than 105 is a failure, this one increases the failure level mostly because it greatly reduces the need to also nail the 3rd ruck who rises, now you bring in the 100-105 group as pass marks without improvement and obviously greatly increase the chance of other rucks being able to reach the premium level. Personally I reckon they have about a 10% chance each of this happening (I'm not factoring in injury here, this is pure scoring but likely injury being played through would be needed to fuel this fire). This gives a 2.5% chance each or roughly 5% combined.

    4. Both fail - I've got this at 1% and seems very unlikely to me but is obviously a miserable failure assuming that the other rucks are popular enough to actually cause harm (if everyone goes GG then all risk is basically mitigated).

    5. Both fall back - This ends up with a 36% chance based on the aforementioned probability. This seems the most likely outcome. This is a bad result but really only an issue if another ruck is able to join this level and that ruck is popular enough to genuinely do harm.

    So basically, 70% of the outcomes require that another ruck joins them and is popular enough for the outcome to be a negative on the points front, yes the cash loss hurts but you're paying the price for premiums you don't need to trade, not to make money, so that's a minor issue as long as they achieve that outcome. You can argue that even outcome 3 is acceptable if no one else raises to the level or is popular enough to do damage, which takes you to 75%. Note the total wont add up to 100% as I've used the low end of the probabilities on the positive outcomes so not playing with the full deck (conservative numbers are inherently better in this type of scenario, imo). This has the most favourable outcome, imo.

    1G - The only reason to go for this is if you think at least one of them will fail or you think at least one will fall AND you've identified someone who will reach that level.

    1. Problem one is that you must identify the correct one to not start. So you've instantly introduced a variable that's a 50% chance of being wrong (yes our powers of deduction can pick one but I can make an equally strong case for/against both of them and I honestly can't tell you which one I wouldn't start right now if you forced me to only start one. Basically you have a 50% chance to get this choice wrong in the event that you're correct in the assumption of one failing.

    2. Say you can narrow it to 3 names, odds suggest that there is a 25% chance of you being right (assuming an absolute of right or wrong) out of those 3 (4th answer is Other/None).

    So basically you have a 12.5% chance of getting the right answer after already having gotten the 35% outcome required for this scenario to exist. That's a 4% chance of being right starting from zero. (these odds get worse if you can't narrow it to only 3 names!).

    0G - It's obvious why you'd go for this if you believe both will fail. There is obviously a point of failure here where it doesn't even matter what you do that simply not getting GG is already the win but that's a mighty fall from grace for the big two. The positive here is you remove the whole "getting the wrong G" from the equation but the reality is you still need at least one to fall and realistically both to fall unless you absolutely nail the choices.

    This scenario is much more realistic and positive if a rookie comes along in which case that pick operates independently of what the premiums do (kind of requires two rookies in that GG would have them at r3 anyway for cash generation purposes) and you can argue that Pierce for example is essentially rookie priced so there is a good case here, the rookies can do well enough to add a points advantage even if GG sustain their position and scoring but this seems unlikely right now. So lets assume you have to pick at least one genuine starting alternative. Really you need one of GG to fail and your pick to be right.

    Basically for mine, unless you're damn certain that they will fall significantly and that whoever you're picking instead is going to provide either enough cash or enough points to justify the trades or cancel the need for the trades, there just isn't much to gain by going against the grain. Will be interesting to see the popularity numbers for them but looking around quickly it sure looks like it's probably in the 75% of teams range right now.
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    FFC Bag Carrier Wheedus's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Just on Grundy, I wouldn't read too much into the JLT numbers.

    Last year he went 65dt/103sc and 89/66 in the JLT and then 84/95 in Rd 1. All games with Cox. Few would have predicted what happened next but the fundamentals were there.

    And whilst it's highly unlikely he'll replicate what he did last year, the fundamentals are still there. Prime age, top team and a high possession one at that.
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  15. #281
    FFC Football Operations Manager Hodges's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    True but last year he didn’t hang a fractured toe that stopped him training for a month and mystery bandages on his calf during that time off. Plus apparently got a corkie in Q4 in the game yesterday. For a guy whose mobility is one of his main weapons, it’s a bit of a concern.

    Lycett is a guy that could probably do with more of a mention. Saw a star that he had the highest HO to advantage percentage of all rucks this JLT. Ryder apparently out 3-6 weeks, plus Ryder played primarily forwards during the PS games. 440k for a first ruck, by the time Ryder is back, Grundy should be ready to be brought in.
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  17. #282
    Moderator Notorious_29's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Grundy seems to play through minor injury quite well however, I remember last season he was knocking out tons through that shin soreness stage.

    I've actually been toying with Mumford currently + Zac Clarke who will be needed to play round 1 and 2. I'm aware that may sound crazy, but from the reading I've done Mumfords in better shape than when he left the AFL and was surprisingly durable in his last couple of years (20 and 21 games). He provides a non-playing player early for VC loophole purposes and has the scoring ceiling of 120-130+ games to really make some cash if he gets going.

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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Just a side note on Jacobs for those that might be considering, wonder if it's worth spending the extra little bit of cash and grabbing O'Brien ahead of Clarke. This way you've got cover if Jacobs is rested although the flip side being Clarke might have a better chance of being in the teams 22 ahead of O'Brien.

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    FFC Bag Carrier Wheedus's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Daniher has reportedly done a calf and will be sidelined for a month. Possibly assists Zac Clarke's prospects. Zac or Smac?
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  21. #285
    FFC Agent of Chaos Big Sledge #32's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    I think at this point I've settled on rolling with Gawn and Grundy.

    I saw a post on their early schedules and they are both pretty tasty. So despite preseason worries I'm starting to think they won't regress anywhere near as much as we'd need for them to be gettable and they may actually sustain their ridiculous 2018 years. I don't feel comfortable on taking anyone else so it makes the decision easier.

    Gawn essentially was their lead intercept defender from the moment Lever went down. It was an interesting tactical decision that occurred out of necessity and I expect it is something they continue given how well it worked for them.
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