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Thread: Midfield Premiums

  1. #16
    FFC Midpricer scrotumscragger's Avatar
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    Re: Midfield Premiums

    heppell in dt would be under priced by about 10 pts- absolute lock
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    FFC Football Operations Manager Nothing's Avatar
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    Re: Midfield Premiums

    Barlow, who has been added to the Suns leadership group, is an interesting proposition. Underpriced compared to his best, I had doubts that he would be getting a regular game. But surely, leadership group = game time.

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Midfield Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Nothing View Post
    Barlow, who has been added to the Suns leadership group, is an interesting proposition. Underpriced compared to his best, I had doubts that he would be getting a regular game. But surely, leadership group = game time.
    He's absolutely on the radar for me, they need big bodied guys to do the extracting and it's a role he's actually pretty elite at but was pushed out by Fyfe, Neale and Mundy at the Dockers.

    Suns have always struggled at the coal face so he should have a prime role. Only question is whether they are trying to win now or already in a bit of a rebuild and thus focus a bit more on getting some of the kids through there more.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    FFC Assistant Coach lifelike_'s Avatar
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    Re: Midfield Premiums

    Having a look at some early ownership stats of the more well-known premiums (or potential premiums) in SC:

    Fyfe 54.2
    Dangerfield 48.2
    Beams 31.7
    Heppell 26.5
    Bontempelli 23.7
    Pendlebury 22.8

    Treloar 12.4
    Kennedy 10.6
    Ablett 9.4
    Rockliff 9.0
    Hannebery 8.6
    Martin 7.7
    Sloane 7.6
    Parker 5.8
    Selwood 3.3
    Gray 2.8
    Coniglio 2.2
    Shiel 2.1
    Viney 1.8

    At this stage it looks like many people will be running with Danger and Fyfe, along with 2-4 of Pendlebury, Bontempelli, Heppell and Beams. Looking like a very vanilla midfield group this season.

    Selwood's ownership surprises me a little. His bye is absolutely ideal given the only other real popular pick in that group with the same bye is Dangerfield.

    When was the last time Ablett was under 10% prior to a season starting? He's in my team at the moment, partly out of loyalty.

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Midfield Premiums

    Fair few other guys on the Danger bye that are at least worth looking at. Martin, Cotchin, Priddis, Mitchell and Ziebell are all guys I'm at least running my eye over this year!

    Heppell is the biggest surprise on that list for me. He's got a discount but he's never really been that close to premium level in SC and has historically had a very poor SC game. Feels like the pick where you're literally taking value without considering that you'll either be carrying an under-premium all year or burning a trade on what is a very expensive midpricer. Priced at 94 he has to be a keeper, period. It's not impossible and we have no idea what the year off is going to do regarding hurt/help scoring but it's a big factor for a historical non-keeper if it does have a negative impact also. Much, much prefer Watson for a Bombers smoky. Much better SC game, much better scoring history and a very decent 60k cheaper. That price difference is the difference between having to be a keeper and having the scope to also be a stepping stone pick if he doesn't get back to keeper levels, which is a very decent 2nd out.

    To be fair also, I think the midfield premiums are going to be very vanilla this year.

    Danger - Has elevated to the super-premium level which requires starting for captaincy purposes alone. He's basically Ablett prior to the injuries.

    Pendles - Rock solid, super durable, super premium with upside due to the time in the back pocket last year, his history and a team that has a decent chance of improving.

    Ablett - Durability has become a major issue for him, reckon I'd only risk him if he looks unstoppable in the preseason and plays pretty much all of it.

    JPK - Captain now which can go both ways to be fair, like Pendles really without the real upside, just a rock solid safe pick. Only real reason to not start him is his tendency to really storm home after slow starts...

    Hanners - Same as JPK at this point, maybe a bit of upside if he ever worked out how to kick he's closer to Danger level than his current scoring which is anchored by clangers and KE% issues that unfortunately are likely to remain. Still, super durable and great scoring history.

    Neale - Only real concern on him is with Fyfe and Mundy to return to fitness he might find himself back as a 3rd wheel. Still, he was really close to premium the year before anyway and could well be assisted by the lack of attention. For me he's an upgrade target though with the uncertainty and Fyfe a lock.

    Parker - Interrupted preseason makes it very hard to take him over anyone else here, though I think he still has more scoring improvement potentially.

    Selwood - Will teams keep tagging him after working out he still struggles with them and that Danger seemingly is unstoppable? Other than that, really there is no good reason for him to not be more popular.

    Merrett - My Boy! Too many variables with him. First season of premium, half the team returning and all that goes with that regarding game style. Very much an upgrade target though because he's got that Rockliff type potential to break the scoring system with pure quantity (and even a lot more quality).

    Treloar - Another very strong option, imo. Potential to improve which is always something nice in a starting premium.

    Rockliff - Durability is the only issue, scoring upside and underpriced are both massive positives. For me he's ahead of Ablett, mostly because he is cheaper, with the same criteria for selection in my side.

    Priddis - Sam Mitchell is my concern here, though he's tearing up the track after back surgery (it's own concern admittedly) and his durability record (played through the back last year for basically the whole season) and scoring history make him one of the most sensible starting picks. Mitchell could very easily make him better rather than worse. Very high after performing perfectly as a starting choice last year.

    Zorko - Similar to Merrett in that it's his first season gunning it and his scoring did settle after other better players returned. Wait and see for me but can understand going with him. New coach also a question.

    Sloane - Under the radar a bit, finished poorly as teams started to tag him, so that's the major question with him. Durability is rock solid and still has potential to improve, imo.

    Martin - Similar to Zorko, position change has impacted his standing, prone to some stinkers which always adds upgrade factor. No idea on role with a lot of talk they want him closer to goal more. Who knows but I just don't really trust him or Richmond enough!

    Gray - Discipline issues last year, durability record is not good but has improved, there is upside if the team can improve and then there is his perfect bye which is always nice. Burned a lot of people last year also which never helps with the starting picks! To me it feels like the main reason I want to pick him is his bye, which worries me but I think it's just overriding otherwise very strong reasoning to pick him.

    Bont - In a lot of sides for good reason. His start last year when he was stuck up forward a lot more than offsets the ruck rule change, imo. Plus the upside is just undeniable, reckon he'll be in most serious sides.

    Cripps - Struggling to get up for round one, screams upgrade target to me, though that was Selwood last year who was ironically a starting pick more than anything else. That said, the list of guys who have big years with no preseason is almost non-existent compared to the list of guys who struggle to score and/or stay on the park.

    Sidebottom - See Gray, burned a lot of people last year which doesn't help. Still a rock solid option though I like his teammates much more.

    Gibbs - Similar to Martin for mine, I don't trust him or his role in the team enough to start him though I also think he has the profile to improve to a 120 type scorer in a perfect season.

    I'm drawing the line here for the premiums (106+) but there are plenty of guys below this group that are worth a play and I expect a lot of them (Fyfe and Beams especially) to be among the highest pick.

    The question will be whether it's worth punting on the Coniglio, Shiel, Ward, Shuey, Mitchell x2, Steven and co types to make the jump or just paying for the Selwood, Priddis, JPK and Pendles group who live in the premium group. That 50-100k can make a huge difference in other areas of the team but I'm personally a huge fan of taking guys that I'm as certain as can be wont require trades in the midfield.

    Last year I started Danger, Ablett, Priddis, Pendles and Rocky as my premiums with Crouch and Libba as midprice. Rockliff went out and then back in and Ablett was out but the other 3 were there all in it all year. Rockliff I only started for value (he's basically Fyfe this year) where his upside is just far too much even with the big bunch of negatives and for me Ablett was a defensive pick (Bonts is probably the closest thing this year) where not having him was riskier than having him.

    This year I think I'm doubling down on the "safe" picks and will take a couple of midprice chances as a result (Swallow and Beams the clear leaders right now).
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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  7. #21
    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Midfield Premiums

    Wouldn't mind having a punt on Sloane after his 2016 season, his 2015 would have probably been a similar average if you removed the injury games and the slow return but I think I'll struggle to fit him in with some of the value picks.

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Midfield Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    Wouldn't mind having a punt on Sloane after his 2016 season, his 2015 would have probably been a similar average if you removed the injury games and the slow return but I think I'll struggle to fit him in with some of the value picks.
    That's the hard part this year, so much value that safe and steady guys are hard to value like you normally would.

    Reckon they are still the play though, think in DT there is a lot more variance in the midfield as well. In SC it feels like there is basically 1 midfield premium spot that will vary between sides at this point.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    FFC Senior Assistant Coach hendo8888's Avatar
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    Re: Midfield Premiums

    To Dangerfield or not to Dangerfield?
    He's your obvious captain if you pick him, but he's also 100k+ more than pretty much everyone else.
    I'm pretty up in the air on him. Probably more inclined to go Rockliff as Captain and use the money elsewhere tbh.
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    FFC Senior Assistant Coach hendo8888's Avatar
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    Re: Midfield Premiums

    He is making a compelling case to pick him at the moment though.
    This post was more than likely SC based.
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  11. #25
    FFC CEO Narkee's Avatar
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    Re: Midfield Premiums

    Absolute no brainer imo
    Last edited by Narkee; 13th March 2017 at 11:03 AM.
    Zach Tuohy my boy for 2017!

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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Midfield Premiums

    I've had Rocky ahead of him as Rocky has a great history whereas Dangerfield really went to another level fantasy wise last year that he hasn't gotten close to reaching before (outside of a 6 game period back in 2012 for memory). That said, pre season scores do suck me in, Rocky has a bit of the unknown with the new coach whereas Geelong are going to rely heavily on being carried by Dangerfield and Selwood so not much should change from last year. Might try find the extra ~20k required to squeeze him into my team.

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    Moderator Notorious_29's Avatar
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    Re: Midfield Premiums

    Really starting to warm to Dayne Beams as an RDT pick. Injury prone yes, but ticking all the boxes for mine.

    - Good pre season
    - 510k - Strange he didn't get a discount but still 100k cheaper than most premium picks.
    - Good midfield role and JLT scores.
    - Captaincy. This gives me confidence in regards to the injury proneness.
    - Elite premium scoring potential. Has a season going @ 116ppg.
    - Less teams tagging these days.

    Not the safest pick by any means but he's certainly tempting me to the point where he is in my team at the moment.

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Midfield Premiums

    My only knock on Beams is the durability history and that the captaincy would mean so much more if I even remotely trusted the Lions to do anything competent... it being the Lions I basically am giving the captaincy about zero real indicating relevance with regards to his health.

    That said, I think he's a defensive pick as much as anything at this point. He's going to be in more teams than not I'd assume, he's basically Swanny a couple of years ago.

    Danger is a DT only question, he's a dead set lock in SC.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    FFC Senior Assistant Coach hendo8888's Avatar
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    Re: Midfield Premiums

    My midfield is largely settled, but there's 1 spot that I can't decide on.
    I'm pretty solid on Dangerfield, Rockliff, Beams, Fyfe and Bontempelli. The rookies will sort themselves out.
    I'm fairly resigned to the fact that I'll end up with O'Meara.
    The last spot is currently filled by Tom Mitchell. His preseason and his past scoring ability says that he should be a strong pick. He's likely stepping into a role more lucrative than he had in Sydney, which should see him reach that super premium level. But his career peak is still only 103.8, which he's hit both of the last 2 years. And he also tends to have 70s more often than you'd want. Little worried that his game doesn't naturally lend itself to SC, too. He's more of an accumulator, rather than a user.
    Other options I'm looking at: One of the Sydney guys (likely Kennedy), Treloar, Selwood or Cripps. All of these options are more expensive, but are more proven (except Cripps, but he's someone with an enormous ceiling if he puts it together).
    Treloar seems very popular, which makes sense. Collingwood should be a better team this year, and Treloar has a genuine chance of pushing Pendlebury as the top mid there. 17 games 98+ last year shows he can be relied upon to score well most weeks. 122 average in the last 7, 129 in the last 9, so there's plenty of upside there.
    All 3 Sydney guys are always great options. But with that comes the tendency to steal points from each other, depending on who is playing well on the day. Which has been Mitchell's issue in the past. They're also the 3 most expensive options.
    Selwood is now the undisputed number 2 mid at Geelong. Which he's been number 1 pretty much his whole career before last year. That doesn't seem to really have hurt his scoring, though. It maybe even takes a bit of the pressure off. He's basically the same price as Treloar, with probably a similar scoring outlook.
    It's probably just going to come down to money. Whichever player I can afford, I'll get, because there's not a whole lot to separate these guys.
    This post was more than likely SC based.
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  19. #30
    FFC Football Operations Manager Hodges's Avatar
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    Re: Midfield Premiums

    Treloar is the standout of those guys for mine. He posted career best numbers last year off of no preseason (groin surgery im fairly certain) and closed out the back half of the season going around 120ppg (again from memory). Given his age and the preseason this year, I think he is a very safe bet and likely to overtake Pendles as the top scoring Pies player.

    Agree on Selwood, he presents a very similar case. The knock ive seen on him is that he cant handle a tag and given how Danger demolishes them he is every chance to start getting tagged again. Minor risk but its enough to solidify Treloar out of the guys you have mentioned.
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