Important News


User Tag List

Page 4 of 10 FirstFirst ... 23456 ... LastLast
Results 46 to 60 of 143

Thread: Back Premiums

  1. #46
    FFC Football Operations Manager Hodges's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Perth
    Team
    HAWTHORN
    Posts
    4,981
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    160 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: Back Premiums

    Its funny, I think we look at it the same way but draw quite different conclusions. With the backs I agree that the premium average score will be higher than the forwards, to me this means making sure you get the high average premos is very important. So im happy to back in just the 2 and get a look at who are the top guys during the season, then upgrade accordingly.

    The premo range being around 95 in the forwards (also agree with that) is good as it allows you to pick those slightly riskier premiums that have upside. Greene, Lynch types. That said this year is odd in that I have the 3 popular midpricers, as they are all a fair chance to hit that low end keeper number.
    Only ever talking SC

  2. #47
    FFC Football Operations Manager Nothing's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Team
    FREMANTLE
    Posts
    4,806
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    345 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: Back Premiums

    As with the forwards, 7 weeks into the season and the backs premiums are taking shape. There's a handful of names that are clearly there (in both comps) like Adams, Docherty, Roberton, Laird and Lloyd. That doesn't leave many spots left.

    Any opinions on who will be top 8 for average by the end of the year?

    DT - Simpson, Montagna, Hodge are consistently thereabouts. Tuohy and Pittard not far off. Any surprise packets to average 100+ in the remaining 15 games?

    SC - Zac Williams currently 6th (replacing Shaw?). Montagna, Simpson close enough. Shaw, Hodge and Rance a bit further back. Then newer additions Zak Jones, Tuohy.

    It's probably a lottery after that top 5 with some names coming into it due to bye structure (Pittard).

  3. #48
    Super Moderator pvcyclone's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Team
    ESSENDON
    Posts
    8,802
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    712 Post(s)
    Tagged
    3 Thread(s)
    Awards FFC Blogger

    Re: Back Premiums

    Pittard in all likelihood comes into my side due to the rd 9 bye. Close enough to top 6 imo.

  4. #49
    FFC Bag Carrier Wheedus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Team
    ESSENDON
    Posts
    4,573
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    322 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: Back Premiums

    I reckon Zac Williams is pretty much there in SC. Averaging 97, with a low of 84 and high of 120 so far, he's actually a pretty solid "get what you pay for pick" pick. Started the season at $480k and now at $503k. Played 20 straight last season (after missing the first two rounds) at an 88 avg. Playing in a skillful top 4 side in his 5th season. Only issue is his SC : DT ratio (97:86) is already pretty full so any drop off in skills through winter / season fatigue might hurt.

    Roberton is the big one. Can he sustain the 108 average?
    Last edited by Wheedus; 9th May 2017 at 03:46 PM.
    Proud coach of Big Jenny Talia FFC
    SC 2013 - 11th
    SC 2014
    - 16th
    SC 2015 and beyond - foetal position

    "Yonnies in the wind, we're ruggin' up for winter"

  5. #50
    FFC Football Operations Manager Nothing's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Team
    FREMANTLE
    Posts
    4,806
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    345 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: Back Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheedus View Post
    Roberton is the big one. Can he sustain the 108 average?
    He can regress 10ppg and he is still a top 8 back. Of course, you don't want to pay 108 price for a 98 average. I'm hoping to add Nick R and him in R12.

  6. #51
    Super Moderator divvydan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Team
    WESTERN BULLDOGS
    Posts
    14,005
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    334 Post(s)
    Tagged
    1 Thread(s)

    Re: Back Premiums

    Hurley considered doubtful for this week so for those who have him, hope he plays and expect him to miss and if you can work around that, do so.

  7. #52
    FFC Agent of Chaos Big Sledge #32's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Adelaide
    Team
    ADELAIDE
    Posts
    16,544
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    577 Post(s)
    Tagged
    1 Thread(s)

    Re: Back Premiums

    Can loophole Shaz and Ryan again if he misses.
    Baltimore Ravens Superbowl XLVII Champions
    Quote Originally Posted by Narkee View Post
    SC only


    #AgentOfChaos

  8. #53
    FFC Senior Assistant Coach Robbo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Perth
    Team
    WEST COAST
    Posts
    2,306
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    103 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: Back Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Nothing View Post
    He can regress 10ppg and he is still a top 8 back. Of course, you don't want to pay 108 price for a 98 average. I'm hoping to add Nick R and him in R12.
    Reading this just got me depressed, Roberton took a 10ppg regression and laughed at it, 30ppg regression is more his style.
    First Passenger on-board the Stefan Martin Train!

  9. #54
    FFC Football Operations Manager Nothing's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Team
    FREMANTLE
    Posts
    4,806
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    345 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: Back Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Robbo View Post
    Reading this just got me depressed, Roberton took a 10ppg regression and laughed at it, 30ppg regression is more his style.
    One of a long line of post bye upgrades that were terrible.

    My upgrades -
    Merrett - tick
    Heeney - tick
    Lloyd - tick
    Dusty - tick

    POST BYES
    Roberton - massive fail
    Zorko - tick (but there were better)
    Riewoldt - fail
    Scott Selwood - fail ($50K price rise)
    Treloar - passable 102 avg (there were much better)
    JPK - massive fail
    Stef - passable
    Beams - tick
    Gawn - massive fail (Kreuzer 60 ahead in 2 weeks)

  10. #55
    FFC Senior Assistant Coach Robbo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Perth
    Team
    WEST COAST
    Posts
    2,306
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    103 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: Back Premiums

    My trades weren't that terrible (outside of Kennedy and Montagna) it was my starting side that was pretty shit lol. I got Roberton rd7, so got a couple ok score before he went off a cliff, guess that's a fail too.
    First Passenger on-board the Stefan Martin Train!

  11. #56
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Team
    SYDNEY
    Posts
    22,170
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    895 Post(s)
    Tagged
    3 Thread(s)
    Awards FFC Blogger

    Re: Back Premiums

    Was going to create a new team but really without knowing rookies it seemed kind of pointless so instead I'm going to do my positional analysis, starting here!

    I see the back premiums falling into two distinct categories. Super premiums who went 99+ last year and the rest who for mine are the huge list of guys in the 87-94 range.

    Super Premiums

    Sam Docherty - RIP sweet prince.

    Michael Hurley - Averaged 108.5 from round 5 onward last year which given a year out of football seems a reasonable point to start from. Had kick in and intercept duties, basically the two keys to stabilise scoring for a true defender. He scored consistently last year with his price staying within a 20k range basically all season after the first month was done with. He's a legitimate super premium. Durability is by far the biggest concern I have and that has been largely a non-factor both in recent seasons and when playing as a defender. Obviously slight concerns would exist if someone else were to take either of those roles but I struggle to see who would take either and do them better. Saad stealing a few rebounds is a chance but I think he basically replaces McGrath who moves to the midfield like for like.

    Prediction - 100-115 - I don't predict a role change and I think his last 16 games of last season is sustainable and the likely outcome.
    Verdict - Very strong starting option.

    Elliot Yeo - Faded last season averaging just 92 over the last 5 weeks. I have concerns on his position and role. Personally think he should be playing as a midfielder for the team and a top line one at that, I don't mind that role from a fantasy perspective but I also don't know it and he's been bad when resting forward from that role and known to get trapped forward as well. Defensively McGovern as the chief intercept guy and Hurn as a strong rebounder both represent consistent threats to his point sources. I have concerns on the team as a whole which might not impact his scoring (more opportunity in defense, more opportunity for prime midfield role) but I also have no certainty on that factor. Inconsistent scoring also makes him a strong upgrade target.

    Prediction - 80-115 - I lean towards 90-95 as the landing spot for him.
    Verdict - Upgrade Target

    Rory Laird - Consistently improving as a player. Brodie Smith injury makes him the primary rebounder. Jake Lever departure makes him the primary intercept marker. Has shown the ability to score consistently well in any position he plays. Negatives for me are Gibbs replacing Smith on a HBF potentially, which I don't expect but if it happens Gibbs is a better ball user and unlike Smith he is prolific at getting it. Other negative would be a like for like replacement including role for Lever, even if this happens I suspect Lever will have more intercept involvement anyway as the replacement isn't likely to be as good as Lever at intercepting, or as selfishly reckless in doing so. Durability is solid but not great.

    Prediction - 95-115 - I lean towards 105-110 though.
    Verdict - Very strong starting option but the backline is one to watch closely in preseason.

    Michael Hibberd - Breakout last year that seems an anomaly to me rather than a new mean. Durability has been less than ideal but not terrible but the primary concern is Jake Lever arriving and intercept marking, Lever sold out his teammates to chase intercepts at Adelaide and I don't see that changing at Melbourne and he'll force them to give him that role so that they can cover for it. Melbourne have several other good rebounders as well and only takes them taking a kick each of Hibberd and he's back in the low 90s. Inconsistent scoring with tendency for low scores helps me define him more as an upgrade target.

    Prediction - 85-105 - I expect he's in the 90-95 range that has been his healthy season average throughout his career.
    Verdict - Starting option but I think better upgrade target.

    As you can tell, I like Hurley and Laird here. I like the other two as well but have concerns on both that make them upgrade targets in my eyes.

    Regular Joes


    Jeremy Howe - Has averaged 94 for basically two seasons now as a strong intercept marker and ball user. Durability has been very good. Biggest concern remains the same as last year, his ability as a forward and the Pies dreadful forward stocks that could force a positional change that takes him from premium to non-entity overnight. Every bit of talk I read from the Pies training is guys training in defense for them and they've got several young talented HBF types who've missed a lot of games but have bright futures. While Howe's best role is clearly as a defender I also think he's probably got more value up forward if they can find alternatives down back. I still like him though but he's also been a pretty inconsistent scorer which is always a nod towards upgrade target for mine.

    Prediction - 85-110 - I'd say 90-100 is the realistic range with 105 being possible in a perfect storm type situation and sub-85 being his average as a forward.
    Verdict - Startable pick but strong upgrade potential also.

    Kade Simpson - Always an option and with Docherty injured he's the obvious primary rebounder at the Blues. Concerns over his age are my biggest concern, chiefly if the season is lost again and he is showing any signs of age that he might receive a friendly push. Durability is impeccable, scoring history is absurd. Scoring was very inconsistent last year which is an upgrade lean.

    Prediction - 90-105 - I'd lean towards 95-100 with a bit more action.
    Verdict - Strong starting option, strong upgrade option if season is trending well.

    Bachar Houli - Interestingly, durability has become an issue over the past couple of season after being his calling card prior to that. Strong and consistent scoring history but I think with many young guys coming through and Rance becoming more and more prominent as an intercept and rebound option that his upside is somewhat limited. Has been always been a very inconsistent scorer as well.

    Prediction - 85-100 - Leaning high 88-93 range.
    Verdict - Reasonable starting pick, better upgrade target.

    Zac Williams - Was amazingly consistent last year with basically two outliers on the positive and negative side each. Shaw is in an obvious decline in both play and role and Wilson is gone as an annoying target stealer. Durability has been good, role will seemingly be good, team will be good barring a shock. Trajectory of scoring has been a really nice and solid progression upwards. He basically just ticks all the boxes for a strong pick.

    Prediction - 85-105 - Would lean towards 95-100.
    Verdict - Very solid starting option.

    Dylan Roberton -Tale of two halves last year. Was amazing for the first half and pretty much terrible for the 2nd half. Two things stand out for me on Roberton's scoring... it was best when Montagna played and really bad when he didn't which also happened to basically be the inverse of Shane Savage's games played/missed last year. Obviously Montagna has retired and Savage is still playing so that's a worrying trend to me. I just honestly have no way to predict what Roberton will show up, there's the super premium version and the I'm playing a rookie over you version. Makes him hard to take even as an upgrade target. He averaged 104 still at round 13 last year.

    Prediction - 70-105 - Honestly, good luck.
    Verdict - He's a starting option, an upgrade option and an avoid at all cost option. Given two of those are "don't start", I'd go that path personally.

    Daniel Rich - Was sneaky good last year. Remains that guy with the perfect SC game style that is just a bit underwhelming still but is showing good progression, the fact his DT actually went down to produce his SC gain last year is my biggest worry, he got less of the ball and instead relied on pure SCery to score big. Given the randomness of the system that's a risky scoring technique. Don't expect significant improvement from the team either so it's hard to see the uplift but he had a massive finish to last season and it's certainly something to watch. Averaged 100 over his last 9 after a more defined role as a rebounding +1. Durability has been really good since the ACL.

    Prediction - 80-105 - I'd lean towards the 95 mark this year.
    Verdict - Sneaky strong starting option with upgrade viability also.

    Brandon Ellis -Similar to Rich, had a sneaky good season and falls off the radar because he was a MID only and thus not a viable pick. His price movements were pretty big last year with a range of 120k between top and bottom but for the most part he was consistent in his scoring and available around his starting price, I'd expect similar with a few dips. Like Houli there is competition (each other primarily with Rance) which makes for some volatile scoring. Ellis always has the upside of moving to the midfield again where he's a 100+ candidate but he seem to have settled into the defense pretty well. Durability is best of the best level.

    Prediction - 85-105 - Would think that the 92-97 range is where he lands, upside is mostly midfield related.
    Verdict - Strong starting option because of durability but limited upside.

    Jeremy McGovern - Ridiculous intercept marker. Was more consistent in the 2nd half of the season when Yeo was fading and they're direct competition for points. Eagles are widely expected to be worse which would mean more supply for his main scoring avenue. Durability is has been good. Upside is basically Yeo leaving, the team getting worse and him becoming more confident in his rebounding skills and doing it more and more aggressively. There's no reason he can't be comparable to Hurley as an overall scorer.

    Prediction - 85-105 - Leaning towards a 95 pick here.
    Verdict - Decent starting option with upside but KPD with some really low scores in past makes upgrade equally viable.

    Alex Rance - Started slowly with no preseason last year, got going and then copped a few tags that slowed him down later in the season. Limited preseason is the main selling point to me, the list of guys who have that and excel is almost non-existent. Previous two years were great. Durability is exceptional. Only slight concern is if the team being better is a part of his slip last year as well and whether the tagging will be ongoing. Is a SC darling with the golden ticket of golden tickets.

    Prediction - 90-105 - Leading towards him bouncing back into the high 90s
    Verdict - Very strong starting option (underpriced) or upgrade option (KPD volatility).

    Shannon Hurn - Bounced back last year after a couple of down seasons, finishing particularly strong. Durability is A+. Upside is hard to find unless he were to make a midfield move which seems unlikely at this point. Highly volatile scorer due to low possession counts makes him the ideal upgrade type for mine.

    Prediction - 75-95 - Landing spot around 85 for mine.
    Verdict - Like him far more as an upgrade target.

    Zach Tuohy - Very strong first season at Geelong. I still think there is upside to him as he grows in confidence as the man rebounding but it's a tougher sell than last year. Durability is ridiculous and a strong point. Was actually very consistent last year but did still have several price stompers which had his price basically stay within 25k of the starting point all year. Doesn't strike me as a guy who's going to lockout people who don't start him and could be cheap at some point. Mackie and Lonergan both leaving is interesting, Mackie in particular had a strong intercept and rebounding role that frees up points and Tuohy is the obvious guy to get the ball to more. Henderson the other guy, imo.

    Prediction - 80-105 - Would lean at the 85-93 range personally but can buy a case for him taking as much as 15 of the points from Mackie.
    Verdict - Sneaky strong starting option with durability and genuine upside. Good upgrade target also.

    Jake Lloyd -Like Roberton, a tale of two halves. His has a clear definition though, Jarrad McVeigh. He averaged basically 100 (removing the concussion game) without McVeigh (Incl. 2 games with unfit McVeigh playing forward also) and 80 with McVeigh. Lloyd's upside relies on Mills going to the midfield or McVeigh being injured or not playing down back. His upside is huge if he goes back to the main rebounding option and his downside is big if he doesn't. Swans should be aiming for a flag which means McVeigh should be playing as the primary rebounder whenever possible as he's still our clear best ball user.

    Prediction - 75-100 - 80-85 is what I expect with a healthy McVeigh.
    Verdict - Do not pick.

    Shane Savage - Was actually very good last year and massive from round 16 onward without Montagna basically. Averaged 100 over the last 8 after he was finally fit, Montagna only played in 2 of those games. Have to think he'll be their top rebounding option this year and thus once again presents a sneaky option that could do anything. The potential has always been there for a 95+ type season. Durability is inconsistent.

    Prediction - 80-100 - I actually think he gets it this year and goes to the 95 region.
    Verdict - Very sneaky starting option, do not like as an upgrade target.

    Alex Witherden - Absolute ball magnet as a rookie and the potential is massive. Super small sample size is a concern, the unknown is a concern, his role is the biggest of those unknowns. His potential is ridiculous though, with the natural fantasy game he has there is no reason he can't go bigger this year but I'd rather grab him later if he does than risk the more likely outcome of a bit of stagnation/decline from his epic scoring last year.

    Prediction - 75-105 - Leaning towards the 80-85 range.
    Verdict - Startable if you believe, upgrade target is more reasonable for mine if he proves the 9 games last year was the real thing.

    That's the last of this group. It's actually a very strong group of mostly emerging players of whom most have very decent cases for improvement or at least to maintain. I think structure down back is probably going to be a bigger factor than who you pick and that ultimately the rookies are going to be the biggest influence. I'd love to start Hurley and Laird if it's possible, I'd really like to find 5 or 6 rookies worth starting here, I think the vast majority of the guys are just as good as upgrade options as they are starters, I think most will be available for the same or less than the starting price at reasonable times of the season.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

  12. Likes Athomas liked this post
  13. #57
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Team
    SYDNEY
    Posts
    22,170
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    895 Post(s)
    Tagged
    3 Thread(s)
    Awards FFC Blogger

    Re: Back Premiums

    Was looking through the news and noticed Elliot Yeo still isn't back in full training with a hip issue from the end of last season that is still giving him issues.

    Also a mention that he wants and expects he'll play mostly as a midfielder this year. Hip injury pretty much explains his fade last year, fwiw, but if it's an ongoing thing that still hasn't healed then it's a bigger issue rather than just an explanation.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

  14. #58
    Moderator Athomas's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Glen Waverley
    Team
    CARLTON
    Posts
    10,716
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    486 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: Back Premiums

    https://twitter.com/neilcordy/status/954229534521409536

    Massive blow for Giants. Zac Williams has ruptured his Achilles at training this morning. Potentially season ending @telegraph_sport @superfooty
    This is very sad for Williams.

    Shaw becomes enticing again with Williams and Wilson gone.
    AFL Twitter --------------------------- This post is SC related--------------------------Movie Twitter

  15. #59
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Team
    SYDNEY
    Posts
    22,170
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    895 Post(s)
    Tagged
    3 Thread(s)
    Awards FFC Blogger

    Re: Back Premiums

    Same immediate thoughts on that one. Shaw or Haynes seem the likely #1 rebounder depending on which direction they take and with the two main guys that have eaten into Shaw's numbers gone, he has to be in the discussion again. The positive is he's coming off his worst season since 2005, so he's cheap as chips for him, the negative is that at 32 you have to think that the downward trend is the most likely pattern though. Shaw is a very strong option though, he only has to get back to his normal seasons to be a winning pick and if he gets anywhere near his best then he's a season sinker to avoid.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

  16. #60
    Super Moderator divvydan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Team
    WESTERN BULLDOGS
    Posts
    14,005
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    334 Post(s)
    Tagged
    1 Thread(s)

    Re: Back Premiums

    They may try and use Lids/Griffen in that role as well, although both will probably miss more games than they'll play.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •