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Thread: Back Premiums

  1. #31
    Moderator Notorious_29's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    Good post but I think for that example if he only misses four games you would consider benching Adams for that period. If it was a couple of two week misses or a 1 week and a 3 week then certainly, if it was a 4 week hammy or something similarly then you would probably going the other way and trading. Either way with your example you would need to take into account the substitute scores.

    So if you bench him your likely cover is 50-60 points per week taking the total to 2180-2200 with no trade made. If you trade his total likely goes up another 90 x 4, taking it to 2340-2350. Both results still trumping the 'durable' option.

    Once again good post and I see the merit but I haven't played the game on durability for the last 3 or 4 years.

    It's an area of the game you can't control and it always throws up variables. For instance starting Boyd last season was a master peice and starting Dahlhaus as a safe pick who has hardly ever missed a game went down with a pretty serious knee injury.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Back Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by TIGERLICIOUS View Post
    Let's say he plays 18 games this year @ 110 ppg = 1980 points. Compare that to the durable Simpson who might drop off by 5 ppg but play all 22 games. 22 games @ 95 ppg = 2090 points. That's 110 extra points and a trade saved by opting for Simpson over Adams and that's factoring in an improvement for Adams and a decline for Simpson.
    One thing when doing this type of comparison is you need to factor in the rookie scores for when Adams is out. So say you have 50 x 4 rounds of cover, that is 200 points, which puts you up 90.

    EDIT: Never mind, N29 nailed it.
    hoff.

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  5. #33
    FFC Assistant Coach TIGERLICIOUS's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    Yeah I agree with both of you, but that's assuming you have adequate bench cover and that the injury doesn't occur during the bye rounds. That would most likely lead to definitely needing a trade. Trades are king, I feel that is even more the case this year with a seemingly poor rookie crop and so many risky selections.

    I've generally played the durability game in RDT with pretty decent results based on previous rankings

    There are just some guys I have absolutely no faith in their bodies holding up, Adams is one. The only reason he poses a dilemma is that he does have hurt factor if by some miracle he reaches say 20 games this year. This post will be fun to revisit either way at the end of the year because it's a good convo.

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  7. #34
    Moderator Skeeta's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    Yeah there are a lot of things to factor in. If its four weeks in one hit then you'll trade him, if its 1, 2, 1 then you probably hold, if its in the bye then you're getting hurt. I'll personally take him in RDT because I feel like if you don't then you'll get punished, however I'm happy to pass in SC due to less upside (as has been said).
    hoff.

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  9. #35
    Super Moderator Bunga's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    Fantasy Freako‏ @FantasyFreako 4h4 hours ago

    Zach Tuohy recorded the highest disposal efficiency (88%) of the top 50 ball winners across the #JLTSeries #SuperCoach
    So tempted by this guy, @Narkee your thoughts/seen much of his preseason games?
    SC is FFC's number 1 fantasy game

  10. #36
    FFC CEO Narkee's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    He's our outlet, will get plenty of the footy. Can't see why he can't do an Enright in his prime. Not sure what his intercept marking is like.
    Zach Tuohy my boy for 2017!

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  12. #37
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    Just looking at the most selected backs in SC...

    Hampton - 51.0%
    Hibberd (NM) - 38.5%
    Shaw - 38.3%
    Otten - 37.7%
    Stewart - 36.4%
    Adams - 33.9%
    Marchbank - 32.7%
    Laird - 31.2%
    EVW - 30.6%
    Docherty - 21.8%
    McGrath - 21.8%
    Tuohy - 17.9%

    Guthrie, Murphy, Luke Ryan?, Rance, Thurlow and Mills are the only other names over 10% and all below 15%.

    Simpson at 6% and Boyd at just 2.6% are once again being written off as starting choices by the vast majority.

    Looking at this it would appear to me that most teams are running with 2-3 premium choices down back and a whole lot of rookies and that Shaw, Adams and Laird is by far the most common combination for that group. Interesting that Docherty is the only other premium and he's 10% behind Laird.

    Don't think there are any major surprises there though and reckon that the backs are going to be somewhat uniform across the competition except for those who go for the Simpson, Boyd, Howe, Lloyd or Jones types, so those are all names that are opportunities for those wanting unique picks.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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  14. #38
    FFC Agent of Chaos Big Sledge #32's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    I know this is the premium thread but Otten is going to break a lot of hearts this season.

    Say Cheney doesn't get up and Otten plays round 1 then that 38% ownership will probably rise. Worst case is that Cheney does a few weeks in the SANFL and comes back by round 3 or 4 and then most people are left with a dead D8 until one of Talia, Lever, Hartigan or Cheney gets injured. But Cheney is still in the frame for being fit enough for round 1 and given that last year he held SJ goalless (which no had done up to that point) he still gets the nod.

    The chaos in me loves it personally, I'd love a lot of the competition suckered into a dead pick.

    This thread has also started my second guessing of Taylor Adams in SC
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  15. #39
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Sledge #32 View Post
    I know this is the premium thread but Otten is going to break a lot of hearts this season.

    Say Cheney doesn't get up and Otten plays round 1 then that 38% ownership will probably rise. Worst case is that Cheney does a few weeks in the SANFL and comes back by round 3 or 4 and then most people are left with a dead D8 until one of Talia, Lever, Hartigan or Cheney gets injured. But Cheney is still in the frame for being fit enough for round 1 and given that last year he held SJ goalless (which no had done up to that point) he still gets the nod.

    The chaos in me loves it personally, I'd love a lot of the competition suckered into a dead pick.

    This thread has also started my second guessing of Taylor Adams in SC
    Otten is a very interesting one, you don't hang on to a guy that long unless there is some belief in his ability and I think you can find a role for him elsewhere like on a wing even. Really interesting situation though with fitting him in.

    The rookie backs do scare me a lot because I keep ending up needing at least 5 of them and even a guy like Marchbank is super expensive!

    I've actually picked Adams at this point because I think his upside is worth the risk in that he has the ability to be a 110 guy that I think only really a few others do, he's going to have an ideal role if he's fit and that's the risk.

    That said Docherty is the only back premium I've locked. Shaw and Adams are fighting Boyd, Simpson and Laird in a heavyweight battle for the two spots, there's still a part of me tempted to roll with 4 premium backs though because I really like this group and I, well, don't like the forwards!
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

  16. #40
    FFC Agent of Chaos Big Sledge #32's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Wogitalia View Post
    Otten is a very interesting one, you don't hang on to a guy that long unless there is some belief in his ability and I think you can find a role for him elsewhere like on a wing even. Really interesting situation though with fitting him in.

    The rookie backs do scare me a lot because I keep ending up needing at least 5 of them and even a guy like Marchbank is super expensive!

    I've actually picked Adams at this point because I think his upside is worth the risk in that he has the ability to be a 110 guy that I think only really a few others do, he's going to have an ideal role if he's fit and that's the risk.

    That said Docherty is the only back premium I've locked. Shaw and Adams are fighting Boyd, Simpson and Laird in a heavyweight battle for the two spots, there's still a part of me tempted to roll with 4 premium backs though because I really like this group and I, well, don't like the forwards!
    I'm aiming to rock a 3 premo set up down back. Currently I have Shaw, Laird and Adams. I'm realising more and more that I want Doc and don't want to give up one of the other guys, but I'll make something work today.

    The current separator I'm looking at is durability. I have faith in Doc/Shaw to start 20+ games. Laird could be a Hibberd type where he's a top 6 average player, but is only available for 18 games a year. Adams is durability bet also coupled with suspension risk.

    EDIT: Realised I forgot Otten. Adelaide have seen something in him but he really only held onto his list spot because we always had worse players to cut and not enough picks to make it worthwhile. He was similar to Tayte Pears who was also pretty awful after that 2009 season coupled with injuries. It's no coincidence that both clubs also had draft sanctions so they probably couldn't cut quite as deeply as they would have liked to over the years. I think the years of him becoming a wingman are over. But it's really hard for me to see him playing meaningful games without injuries to others
    Last edited by Big Sledge #32; 22nd March 2017 at 04:05 PM.
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  17. #41
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    The back premiums are the opposite of the forwards for mine. I'm struggling to pick 3 because I want 5 compared to the forwards where I'm struggling to pick 3 because I only really want 1.

    With the ridiculous amount of rookie forwards that are popping up I'm getting really, really tempted to run with just 2-3 premiums up forward and 4 down back instead but finding it hard to structure up without sacrifices I don't want to make elsewhere, of course!
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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  19. #42
    FFC Football Operations Manager Hodges's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    There's a heap of viable back rookies too tbh. I'm actually the opposite of you, I'm not hugely enamoured with the back premiums and quite like a lot of the forward options. There's a heap of question marks around the back premiums IMO.
    Only ever talking SC

  20. #43
    FFC General Manager Crow-mo's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    I'm hating on the back premo's but have a hard on for JJK, Greene, Dahl, Tommy Lynch, Buddy etc.

    I also love the forward mid pricers, roughy & higgins which is a real pain.
    TEX WALKER. that is all.

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  22. #44
    FFC Football Operations Manager Hodges's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    Thats exactly the problem I have right now too. Pretty much those are the same premiums I like up forward (plus Gunston), but yeah the backs im eh.

    Docherty - his average jumped 20ppg last year, its hard to see it increasing by much again. That said his back half to last year was very consistent and above his season average, still my fav of the premo backs.

    Simpson - average increased by 14 ppg on previous year and 7ppg on his best year ever. At age 32. Given his previous 7 years averages were within 7 points of each other, its pretty easy to say the increase was based off the game plan. Which to me is risky, because a change in game plan sees him likely drop back. In any case, last year is a huge outlier so he is well overpriced. And 33 soon.

    Shaw - finished off last year very poorly (score wise not playing ability). Durability of late has been great but given his age, depth of GWS list and his importance to their finals - I can see him getting rests this year.

    Laird - has had some small durability issues, but given so many of the top backs play 22 its an issue. Others will probably disagree, but I dont like the idea of more midfield time for him. If a back is just a rebounder then sure a midfield move is a plus. But Laird is an elite intercept mark and you get bulk points for that. The whole intercept contested mark, effective rebound 50 chain is ridiculous and he got that a lot last year. Who knows how the midfield time works out, but its an unknown quantity and to me thats risky in a premium.

    Adams - injury and suspension issues. Butcher, but does contested work to make up for it. Pretty much just the injury issues to worry about, and its a big worry.

    Montagna and Rance have both had bad preseasons so that rules them out. Boyd is pretty much the only other guy and at 34 I just cant bring myself to pick him. Too much can go wrong with injury niggles and rests when you hit that age.
    Only ever talking SC

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  24. #45
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    Haha that's very much the glass half full view on all of them, I've basically got the same view on the forward guys where their negatives stand out. I think part of it for me is that I think there's a bigger pool of forward premium candidates that I'll be able to upgrade to as well.

    So when I look at the backs I see about 10 names that I think could legitimately score in the 100+ range where the premium cutoff has roughly been the past couple of years, I feel pretty safe on picking those guys because most have done it a few times or did it last year in the exact same roles they'll play this year.

    The forwards I think the premium range is closer to 95 and I think there are probably about 20 candidates to get there, with a much bigger pool to pick from the chances of them being cheap through the year is also bigger. I'm not sure it will matter whether I have Lynch or Franklin at the end of the day but if one of them throws out a 40 type score like they're very capable then I can upgrade to either and get the same result.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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