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Thread: Back Premiums

  1. #136
    FFC Bag Carrier Wheedus's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    Kick-in rules are set to impact SuperCoach in more ways than one
    Fantasy Freako, Herald Sun
    March 4, 2019 5:46pm

    New kick-in rules are one of the most discussed changes to the game in 2019 with their potential SuperCoach impact a major talking point.

    Identifying likely kick-in players is obviously important, but looking at the kick in result, or the actual kick-in target can be just as useful from a SuperCoach point of view.

    With the player on the mark now 10m back from the top of the goalsquare after a kick in, there could be more space in the defensive zone for players who work hard and present as the kick-in target. This could potentially result in more uncontested marks should the team decide to take the short option.

    If we analyse teams based on taking the short option from a kick-in last season, it was Fremantle and Sydney (57 per cent) that had the highest rates for effective short kicks, with Adelaide (50 per cent) next highest. At the other end, Western Bulldogs were the most direct team when bringing the ball back into play, with their rate of 27 per cent short kicks 5 per cent lower than any other side.

    The short lateral kick-in to an open target is often an easy out for a team that decide to maintain possession, with the alternative being to kick long to a contest where the ball can be turned over. Richmond took this option more than any other team (21 per cent), with Fremantle (18 per cent) and Sydney (15 per cent) next highest.

    West Coast took the lateral option the least of any side (2 per cent), which makes sense given Shannon Hurn kicked in to himself more than any other player in the AFL.

    2018 KICK-IN TARGETS

    Reviewing numbers from the 2018 season, Dayne Rampe was the target from 30 kick-ins – nine more than Joel Hamling. There were a host of other players on 20 including Michael Hurley, Aliir Aliir and Jesse Joyce. The most relevant from a SuperCoach point of view was Rory Laird, who was the target 19 times, while Jake Lloyd presented 17 times which is impressive considering he took the most kick-ins of any player in the league. So if he wasn’t taking the kick-in, he was presenting as an option to receive the ball instead. That’s gold!

    Michael Hibberd (16) and Alex Witherden (14) also deserve a mention.

    2019 KICK-IN TARGETS

    Player Club Kick-in targets
    Dane Rampe Sydney 30
    Joel Hamling Fremantle 21
    Michael Hurley Essendon 20
    Aliir Aliir Sydney 20
    RORY LAIRD Adel 19
    Zach Tuohy Geelong 18
    Nick Vlastuin Richmond 18
    Jarrad McVeigh Sydney 18
    JAKE LLOYD Sydney 17
    LACHIE WHITFIELD GWS 17
    Jarrod Harbrow GC 16
    David Astbury Rich 16
    MICHAEL HIBBERD Melb 16
    Steven May GC 15
    Phil Davis GWS 15
    Alex Rance Rich 15
    Chris Masten WC 15
    ALEX WITHERDEN Bris 14
    Tom Jonas Port 14

    2016-18 KICK-IN TARGETS

    If we broaden the sample size to the past three home-and-away seasons, Laird has been the target from 72 kick-ins – 12 more than Rampe. If you weren’t sold on Laird as a SuperCoach selection previously, then this should seal the deal.
    Lloyd also ranks high in this measure and has been targeted 41 times, while Lachie Whitfield isn’t too far behind with 34. Whitefield can only be selected as a defender this season after playing 70 per cent of game time in defence in 2018 in the absence of the injured Zac Williams.

    However, once Williams returned for the finals series, Whitfield went back to his customary position on the wing, spending just 10 per cent of game time in defence across both finals.

    2016-18 KICK-IN TARGETS

    Player Club Kick-in targets
    RORY LAIRD Adelaide 72
    Dane Rampe Sydney 60
    Robbie Tarrant NM 49
    David Astbury Rich 45
    Heath Grundy Syd 41
    JAKE LLOYD Syd 41
    Joel Hamling WB/Frem 40
    Phil Davis GWS 38
    Daniel Talia Adel 38
    Callum Mills Syd 36
    Jordan Lewis Haw/Melb 36
    Nick Vlastuin Rich 35
    Michael Hurley Ess 34
    LACHIE WHITFIELD GWS 34
    Darcy Byrne-Jones Port 32
    Heath Shaw GWS 32
    Kyle Hartiigan Adel 32
    Jeremy McGovern WC 32
    MICHAEL HIBBERD Melb 31
    Jarrod Harbrow GC 31

    WHAT WE’VE SEEN SO FAR
    Not every team will defend space the same way from kick-ins, which makes the pre-season even more important when analysing team structures and defences ahead of the season proper.

    The all-important JLT Community Series has kicked off and this provides us with valuable numbers to look at. When analysing kick-in data we have to be mindful how many kick ins a team actually has. In week one, both Melbourne and West Coast had 17 kick-ins apiece, while Adelaide and Richmond only had five.

    Overall in the first week, the kick-in player chose to play on 62 per cent of the time, which is more than double the 2018 competition average (25 per cent).

    Both Carlton and Richmond played on 100 per cent of the time, while Sydney played on the least — just three times from nine kick-ins.

    Looking at individuals, Lewis Jetta had the most kick-ins of any player (nine), with new Sun Jordan Murdoch not far behind with seven. The two players with six kick ins are perhaps the most relevant in SuperCoach, with Shannon Hurn and Demon rookie Marty Hore both impressing. In the case of Hore, he played on from five kick-ins to further add to his appeal.

    Popular SuperCoach pick Jake Lloyd failed to play-on from both his kick ins, while the underpriced Zac Williams and Brodie Smith both played on from both of theirs. Breakout contender Alex Witherden also played on from his two kick-ins.
    Below is a breakdown of the leading kick in players across the weekend:

    MOST KICK-INS JLT SERIES WEEK ONE

    Player Club Kick-ins Play on
    Lewis Jetta WC 9 55.6%
    Jordan Murdoch GC 7 85.7%
    Marty Hore Melb 6 83.3%
    Shannon Hurn WC 6 50%
    Jamie Macmillan NM 5 80%
    Daniel Rich Bris 5 60%
    Christian Salem Melb 5 60%
    Shane Savage StK 5 60%
    Ryan Burton Port 4 25%
    Caleb Daniel WB 4 75%
    Sam Frost Melb 4 50%
    Jasper Pittard NM 4 25%
    Heath Shaw GWS 4 25%
    Tom Stewart Geel 4 75%
    Charlie Ballard GC 3 33.3%
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  3. #137
    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    So Laird comes 3rd last year at 19 kick ins? That's not really going to change a hell of a lot for him really all things considered then, that's basically one mark and kick a game for someone that averaged 32.2 touches a game last year.

  4. #138
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    Re: Back Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    I still don't see why the short kickout doesn't really change. Instead of kicking it to the pocket 20m out, everyone will be set out further away meaning the short kickout could be 40m out instead.

    No real way of knowing but I could still see this being used in a similar fashion, it just advances you up a little further before taking a big kick down the line.
    My comment was about Smith taking kick-ins, who fundamentally changes the approach compared to Brown, rather than the rule change. That the rule change further encourages the longer kick and play on for Smith just kind of doubles down on that part of it for me.


    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    So Laird comes 3rd last year at 19 kick ins? That's not really going to change a hell of a lot for him really all things considered then, that's basically one mark and kick a game for someone that averaged 32.2 touches a game last year.
    Say that number halves that's basically 3 points a game off Laird directly. I reckon that on 50% of those touches Laird would also kick short and then be a strong chance to get it back, either on a handball receive or another +6 type kick where he then could kick long. It was a significant part of his game when we're talking 108 priced starting picks.

    Throw in that Laird already dropped off 3 points on the season average after Milera went back (5 on before Milera average) and had his two worst games of the season when Smith played and I personally think that the difference is tangible enough. If he drops to 102 he's going to be a bad result as a starting pick.

    I feel similarly about Lloyd, it doesn't take a big change to the amount of short kicks for Sydney and he's going to drop off a cliff, not only was he up there himself basically getting it everytime he didn't kick-in, he pretty much always got it back off Rampe to maximise his points. Swans already had a couple of longer kickers take several kick-ins so that's a concern that they're at least intrigued by the idea of taking the metres and going long (Horse loves the long ball to a disadvantaged contest).

    Personally at the end of the day there are enough concerns on Lloyd and Laird with very little genuine upside. They'd both need to average about 125 over the first 6 weeks to hold their price with the way the pricing changes happen. Last year Mitchell averaged 126 (7 points above his starting price) and dropped 70k by week 7. I don't think either is a bad starting pick, I'd be shocked if they're not premiums barring injury but I'd also be genuinely surprised if they improved by any significant amount and at least a little surprised if they improved at all, that makes them a mediocre option. That i think there are strong cases for a drop off on both and that's my expected outcome makes them upgrade targets personally.

    I guess the hard part is that really that's the narrative on every carry over premium defender now and obviously picking breakouts is even harder in general so maybe copping a loss and saving the trades for sure is the better play (personally like Lloyd more for that because of better durability).
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  6. #139
    Super Moderator Bunga's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    Interesting comments by Laird :-


    What is more clearcut is who will be taking the majority of the kick-outs for the Crows – superboot Brodie Smith demanding the role, according to Laird.

    "Brodie's sort of said, 'Don't go near the ball'," Laird said.
    "If he gets a bit of a run-up, he can probably kick it near the centre circle.
    "If you can do that out of a kick out and get it out of your defensive 50, then I don't see why you don't do that the majority of the time, but if you've players who are clearly on, you can chain the ball on and we've got that option too.
    "Just be a matter of what he wants to do, but I dare say he'll want to let a few go.
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  8. #140
    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by Wogitalia View Post
    My comment was about Smith taking kick-ins, who fundamentally changes the approach compared to Brown, rather than the rule change. That the rule change further encourages the longer kick and play on for Smith just kind of doubles down on that part of it for me.




    Say that number halves that's basically 3 points a game off Laird directly. I reckon that on 50% of those touches Laird would also kick short and then be a strong chance to get it back, either on a handball receive or another +6 type kick where he then could kick long. It was a significant part of his game when we're talking 108 priced starting picks.

    Throw in that Laird already dropped off 3 points on the season average after Milera went back (5 on before Milera average) and had his two worst games of the season when Smith played and I personally think that the difference is tangible enough. If he drops to 102 he's going to be a bad result as a starting pick.

    I feel similarly about Lloyd, it doesn't take a big change to the amount of short kicks for Sydney and he's going to drop off a cliff, not only was he up there himself basically getting it everytime he didn't kick-in, he pretty much always got it back off Rampe to maximise his points. Swans already had a couple of longer kickers take several kick-ins so that's a concern that they're at least intrigued by the idea of taking the metres and going long (Horse loves the long ball to a disadvantaged contest).

    Personally at the end of the day there are enough concerns on Lloyd and Laird with very little genuine upside. They'd both need to average about 125 over the first 6 weeks to hold their price with the way the pricing changes happen. Last year Mitchell averaged 126 (7 points above his starting price) and dropped 70k by week 7. I don't think either is a bad starting pick, I'd be shocked if they're not premiums barring injury but I'd also be genuinely surprised if they improved by any significant amount and at least a little surprised if they improved at all, that makes them a mediocre option. That i think there are strong cases for a drop off on both and that's my expected outcome makes them upgrade targets personally.

    I guess the hard part is that really that's the narrative on every carry over premium defender now and obviously picking breakouts is even harder in general so maybe copping a loss and saving the trades for sure is the better play (personally like Lloyd more for that because of better durability).
    He did play with Smith the season before, average was 100 so not as good but to be honest, outside of the top 3 backman, I'm not really big on the other options so I'm happy to take a drop to get a safe premium over going a risky option.

  9. #141
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    He did play with Smith the season before, average was 100 so not as good but to be honest, outside of the top 3 backman, I'm not really big on the other options so I'm happy to take a drop to get a safe premium over going a risky option.
    That's the point, you're likely getting a premium but I think you're more likely to get the 96-100 guy of the previous couple of seasons than the 110 guy of last year before Milera and then Smith were back there. Honestly, outside of injury, or the kick-in really shifting the goal posts, I don't see him not being a premium, it's whether taking him and losing value to "guarantee" the premium is a better bet than taking a punt on someone like Williams and Roberton as a pairing and probably having to upgrade both.

    Personally I think with the Sicily forward curveball that all of a sudden all of the top 5 100 point guys have serious questions. Simpson sharing kick-ins would dent his scoring as would Newman taking a primary rebound role. Sicily obvious if he goes forward. Whitfield I think is pretty safe and does have upside but I also wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't improve. Lloyd and Laird I think both have genuine cases for 10 point drops that are stronger than any case for improvement, in my opinion.

    Obviously given those are the "starting premiums" it could actually be a case where rather than the kick-in rule doing what was initially expected that it actually does the opposite and actually just bring the top back to the pack and expand the options, this would be an epic result for anyone playing the midfield game as moving that premium level from 100 to 95 brings so much more into play.

    Will want to see more sample size in round 2 but so far the obvious trend to me through 7 games watched is that teams are not using a designated kicker very often. Eagles clearly have 2, Murdoch took 7/12 for GC with a clear tactic (still scored terribly fwiw), Hore seems high but was only 6/17, Lloyd down on his % last year though GWS kicked too straight for a reliable sample there, JMac and Rich both under 50% despite being clear choices for their teams as well.

    If that continues I think I'll personally be jumping on mid price guys, especially the Smith/Roberton type who have legitimately scored in the mid 90s over a season before but will likely make enough cash even if they only get to 95, Smith to me strikes as probably the single biggest benefactor of the rule change as well, fwiw, his ability to legitimately clear the centre consistently is too much of a weapon to not use, especially with such a strong group of KP targets to kick to.
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  10. #142
    FFC Agent of Chaos Big Sledge #32's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    Well Brown took the majority of our kick ins last year by a widr margin. So that is all up for grabs now for the first few months.

    I do think Smith is the main beneficiary, but it will still go to whoever is closest a lot of the time as well. Smith loading up offers us the chance to be much more aggressive with our kick ins. I expect us to be a lot better than 2018 so that should lead us to getting our aggressive mojo back.

    But I'm also aware that in the JLT so far teams defending the kick in seem to be outscoring those taking the kick in at a rapid rate. So that might change how aggressive each team is going forward.
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    FFC Bag Carrier Wheedus's Avatar
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    Re: Back Premiums

    Smith -> precision pass to Laird -> handball back to Smith -> long kick to a target.
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