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Thread: Back Rookies

  1. #151
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Back Rookies

    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    Snip.
    Hore - JS is the issue with May out and their abundance of HBF he's going to have to perform but he's a mature ager who looks good.

    Clark - Looks really good. JS the issue again with Tuohy and Bews both likely out for round 1 and breathing down his neck. He looks quality though and the kind who should score well. Looks good enough to hold off Bews, imo. Natural SC type with marking and good skills.

    Burgess - Playing as the FF basically for GC, terrible role, but does some nice things. Big body and mature aged and not a lot of competition but I think you'd be hoping he jags a bag to make any real cash. DPP useful.

    Duursma - Looks a really good kid long term. Will have Hartlett and Broadbent breathing down his neck, same as Hore/Clark, basically looks like he'll score well but will have to to stay in the team.

    Scrimshaw - Again JS the issue but looks a natural scorer for fantasy purposes. Fitness and defensive intensity probably his main issues that could hurt him.

    Ridley - Expensive and JS the concern with a couple of guys pushing for r1 availability that will put pressure on him, especially Gleeson. Looks a goer though.

    Joyce - Think he'd get the start ahead of Marsh/Rowe at St Kilda, base priced and much better SC option, imo. He looks to have some skill though but I'm not sold on the scoring potential or the JS with Brown to come back in round 2 and then Marsh and Rowe picked up to play KPD as well.

    Collins - Looks really good in SC but too expensive in DT. His Freo numbers to me are pretty much where he should be at this year, maybe a bit higher with supply and a couple more years of development but ball park that's my expectation, role will be the same.

    Moore - SC only (unless he's a lot cheaper in DT?) but great scoring attributes with his intercept marking and kick-ins. Durability basically cancels the JS but it's always nice, good preseason. DPP also super handy.

    O. Allen - One to watch, super talented but JS will be a strong issue. If JJK were to be put through a mini-preseason and rested for a bit, he could be a go but otherwise probably not an option.

    E. Hughes - Actually looked really good in JLT to me. Looks to have really toned his body into AFL shape and looks primed for a big season off HB. 230k and I reckon his JS is pretty decent if picked for round 1. I only just noticed him, kind of assumed he'd be pricier, but he's certainly a sleeper option, imo.

    Rozee - He's expensive and his scoring potential is a bit dodgy but I think his JS is going to be strong, already basically their most creative forward other than Gray and I've seen no one else really show that on their list so that bodes well. Probably can kick a mini bag to price rise, not a guy you'd want to start though which makes that premium hard to justify.

    Cumming - 170k and was in a pretty well defined role in JLT 2, think he's on the fringe but with Haynes out a while there is a spot to be had and they really rate his ball use so could get kick-ins and used on the rebound.

    Marsh - Actually only 160k in SC, so stronger in that format. Still would need to get picked and then hold the spot, don't think he's worth it.

    Markov - 160k but had a really good role in JLT, basically seems to have beaten Ellis for that final back spot on a team that does share the rebounding. If he's named round 1 I think he's a very strong option that would be worth the premium. Solid 60 average type who can score 90+ in a game to spike. JS would be an ongoing battle though, basically if he works he'll really work or you've got a donut

    Quaynor - Seems to be just outside the team but if he can break in, he's a good fantasy type.

    McKay - May play early games depending on Tarrant, watch out for the fools gold with Thompson out for round 1 though, really depends if they go tall in defense, he's not going to score great regardless but if he's named and they're playing 3 talls, he's a chance at decent run of games.

    I actually really like the back rookies. I think there are a solid 6 who will play round 1 and should be able to hold their spots if they play well which obviously means they'll also be making cash and that's the key. I do think that basically everyone of them is a better SC pick than DT as they're all playing SC roles essentially rather than any midfielders masquerading as defenders. Duursma probably the guy with the worst role from a SC perspective as a winger but he looks to be quality and should find enough for it to not matter either way.
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  3. #152
    Moderator Athomas's Avatar
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    Re: Back Rookies

    Just to play devil's advocate, I actually hope most of the expected rookies are named, because I think they nearly all have terrible JS

    Hore - May out is a massive spanner here. I think he is a big chance to get named Round 1 now, something like a 90% chance. Then I think he's an 80% chance to go straight out for May BF Demons board seem to think he'd be the one to go out before Frost, I tend to agree. Very poor JS for mine. Did take a lot of the kick-ins and played on every time (6/6 I believe) - would've at least liked to see a better score with that being said.

    Clark - I like him, I think MOC (O'Connor) is a threat to him too, but I'd certainly be taking MOC out for Tuohy, if MOC/Clark both play Round 1. Only defender rookie I am confident on the field tbh.

    Burgess - DPP useful with Moore. JS probably good with GC injuries as well. Wouldn't put him anywhere near the field or even EMG.

    Duursma - I like him but 58% and 67% TOG in the JLT. Butters went 70% and 74%, Rozee 76% and 78%. 24 touches in JLT2 though, should play Round 1. I'd prefer he didn't as I'm not totally sold

    Schrimshaw - Hope he gets named too, I would confidently say he's the 22nd selected player if he does, with players like Miles/Moore/Walker all ready to come in after a couple of average weeks.

    Ridley - Wish he was cheaper, I can't really justify it at that price due to the JS. Scoring should be fine.

    Joyce - Never really considered, KPP, not locked in.

    Collins - Feel he will score 40,45,90,45. Should be a fun rollercoaster with people trying to get his good scores. JS is great... but with my structure, I am tempted to avoid if he's going to be on my bench anyway and I only need one defender rookie on the field.

    Moore - I guess if we are counting him as a rookie, that makes the defender rookies much more improved

    McKay - He's playing Round 1 imo, too many KPD outs. He looked very poor in JLT2 though, so he'd be out for SDT Round 2.


    I'm sure you could find flaws with mid/forward rookies too (that being said, I think Setterfield/Drew/Petrucelle/Parker at the minimum all have better JS than any of the above players bar Collins/Moore)
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  4. #153
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Back Rookies

    Quote Originally Posted by Athomas View Post
    Just to play devil's advocate, I actually hope most of the expected rookies are named, because I think they nearly all have terrible JS

    Hore - May out is a massive spanner here. I think he is a big chance to get named Round 1 now, something like a 90% chance. Then I think he's an 80% chance to go straight out for May BF Demons board seem to think he'd be the one to go out before Frost, I tend to agree. Very poor JS for mine. Did take a lot of the kick-ins and played on every time (6/6 I believe) - would've at least liked to see a better score with that being said.

    Clark - I like him, I think MOC (O'Connor) is a threat to him too, but I'd certainly be taking MOC out for Tuohy, if MOC/Clark both play Round 1. Only defender rookie I am confident on the field tbh.

    Burgess - DPP useful with Moore. JS probably good with GC injuries as well. Wouldn't put him anywhere near the field or even EMG.

    Duursma - I like him but 58% and 67% TOG in the JLT. Butters went 70% and 74%, Rozee 76% and 78%. 24 touches in JLT2 though, should play Round 1. I'd prefer he didn't as I'm not totally sold

    Schrimshaw - Hope he gets named too, I would confidently say he's the 22nd selected player if he does, with players like Miles/Moore/Walker all ready to come in after a couple of average weeks.

    Ridley - Wish he was cheaper, I can't really justify it at that price due to the JS. Scoring should be fine.

    Joyce - Never really considered, KPP, not locked in.

    Collins - Feel he will score 40,45,90,45. Should be a fun rollercoaster with people trying to get his good scores. JS is great... but with my structure, I am tempted to avoid if he's going to be on my bench anyway and I only need one defender rookie on the field.

    Moore - I guess if we are counting him as a rookie, that makes the defender rookies much more improved

    McKay - He's playing Round 1 imo, too many KPD outs. He looked very poor in JLT2 though, so he'd be out for SDT Round 2.


    I'm sure you could find flaws with mid/forward rookies too (that being said, I think Setterfield/Drew/Petrucelle/Parker at the minimum all have better JS than any of the above players bar Collins/Moore)
    Hard to say on the JS front, if they play well then that goes out the window and they score great and obviously vice versa.

    There was an article today where Max Gawn basically hinted that Hore was playing regardless and that they'd bring in Frost as KPD2 if the Power go tall or just use Hore as KPD2 if they went small. Either way it sounded like Hore had a spot as the 3rd tall for now which would mean Lever is probably the threat to his job long term. Still is hard to fit him in though with Hibberd, Jetta, Salem and Lewis, though pushing Salem higher is a perennial preseason plan for Melbourne.

    FWIW Collins was a fair bit better than that at Freo but the inconsistency isn't wrong

    Duursma is the hard one, Hartlett and Broadbent will be there chomping at him so he has to outperform others to hold the spot, again, standard great rookie or donut by round 3 type

    Scrimshaw I actually like mostly because Hawthorn have about 6 guys that are probably the "22nd" picked types and he's got a role where they don't really have anyone established and good so he's got the potential to win a spot long term. He's pretty much Finlayson last year with GWS, if he plays well he'll score well and hold his spot but if he doesn't it will be ugly and he'll be out really quickly.

    As bad as you've made this lot sound I think they're still better than most of the other positions...

    Mids you've got Walsh and LDU who tick the JS and scoring potential boxes. Gibbons and Atkins will have bad roles and questionable JS anyway as fringe players. Butters, Cousins and Smith are expensive with questionable JS and unknown roles that would impact scoring potential significantly. Constable has no JS if he even gets picked. Scott I like but I wouldn't want to rely on him scoring consistently.

    Petrucelle has bad JS (there are like 5 other players vying for that one spot) and even more questionable scoring potential, I mean he's base priced despite playing 3 games, that's a special level of not finding the ball (I like him, devils advocate and stuff), Parker will have a stinker of a role that instantly makes JS a tough sell. Drew has Wines returning asap so has to beat someone else for the spot (like him, think he will). Setterfield has a pretty bad durability record and will have to perform in a, likely, bad team as a forward, tough gig basically. That's basically all the forward rookies right now so if someone fails it doubles down onto the others.

    This post seems overly negative but more just highlighting that all rookies, except Walsh, have significant issues that can derail them.

    Wouldn't shock me if come next week we lose a half a dozen of the names and basically get pigeon-holed into whatever is left
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  5. #154
    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Back Rookies

    As I go over my team more closely, just questioning my Ridley selection - who has he come into the team for that kept him out last year? Hooker? Is he any chance to remain or likely go out? Hooker is out for 4 weeks which isn't that long given that's just x2 price changes. Pre season scoring was solid and happy to pay the cash for those kind of numbers but if that's unrealistic, thinking I might be safer to go a cheaper rookie and use the cash elsewhere in my team.

  6. #155
    Super Moderator divvydan's Avatar
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    Re: Back Rookies

    He's more in for Dea than Hooker imo. Dea also has a similar injury timeframe but unlike Hooker, isn't a walk up start once he's fit.

  7. #156
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Back Rookies

    He's in for Gleeson more than anyone else. Redman, Dea and Hooker could also push him out depending on structure they want.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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