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Thread: Rucks

  1. #61
    Super Moderator pvcyclone's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheedus View Post
    It's actually a refreshing change this year not having to agonise over this part of the field


    EDIT - then again, it does concern me a little how popular Lobbe is. Priced at 72, a 100 average from him as lone ruckman (he did it in 2014) is a whole lot of upside....

    God I dislike this game sometimes
    100 average by him under the old ruck scoring. Closer to a 90 average under current scoring, which is well off the pace of Goldy, Stef or even Jacobs.

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    Fort Kickass Ben the Gooner's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Lobbe may be cheap, but I'll take the 10ppg head start with Martin
    Never bet against Tom Rockliff

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    Super Moderator Bunga's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-02-2...ruckman-status

    MAX GAWN is hoping to emulate All Australian ruckman Todd Goldstein and become the competition's No.1 ruckman in 2016.

    The Melbourne big man said Goldstein, who became the competition's pre-eminent ruckman in 2015, had set the benchmark for how to play the position.

    The 90-rotations limit will be installed for the season proper this year and it is expected that players will spend more time on the field.

    "I can see the ruckmen having more time on the ground with that rotation cap which doesn't bother me too much," Gawn said on Tuesday morning.

    "I like to stay on the ground and not come to the bench but no one really knows until that happens in the first few weeks (of the season).

    "The ruck role will increase to a 90 per cent ruck role, similar to Goldstein. He's set the standard in how much time ruckman need to be on the park for and hopefully I can cover the ground more than what I did last year."

    Gawn is certainly fitter, achieving the first full pre-season of his seven-year career.

    He is covering the ground better than ever and was clearly one of best players in the club's intraclub hit-out last Friday.
    http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-02-2...ruckman-status

    Going to watch with interest his NAB challenge - the only other ruck I am considering after Goldy/Martin.

    Interesting post on Big Footy about Gawn, some real research done - make of it what you will :-

    A majority of the teams in the league have weak rucks. I'd argue the only teams in the AFL that have ruckmen that are either equal to, or better than Gawn are North Melbourne, Adelaide, GWS, Brisbane, West Coast and Fremantle.

    Out of those 6, last season he faced 4 of them (he faced GWS but that was without Mumford so I'll ignore that game).

    He tonned up against Brisbane and Fremantle. He out-rucked Martin due to his size and racked up 21 touches against Sandilands around the ground.

    Against North he scored 80. I remember watching this game, he was absolutely cooked halfway through the 3rd quarter. He commented later that this was the game that really kicked him up the ass and showed him the kind of endurance an elite AFL ruckmen needs to posses.

    Against West Coast he scored 66 (split the ruck almost 50/50 with Spencer)

    So out of the 6 top ruck in the AFL, he's faced 4. Tonned up against 2, and didn't against the remaining 2. So considering he tonned up against 2 of the top 6 rucks in the AFL, that's 4 he has either not tonned up against, or we havent been exposed to his scoring potential against them. What this means is that in 17 teams he'll come up against, he'll face someone weaker than him in 11 of those. If you count the games where he tonned up against Brisbane and Fremantle, he has 13/17 games where you'd expect him to ton up.

    I rewatched Melbourne's game in round 18 against Collingwood. With around 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, Gawn was absolutely stuffed. The commentators were laughing at the fact he spent a 2-3 minute period within a 30m radius and barely moved from exhaustion. They commented on his legs looking like jelly and he could barely stand. He tonned up in SC anyway. In the North game the exact same thing happened. I can't comment on the other games as I haven't watched them or don't remember them if I did.

    Why did he gas out so quickly in games last season? Because he didn't have a pre-season. What's he done about it? Had a pre-season so good that Paul Roos said he has never seen a ruckmen in his coaching career train better than Gawn did during a trip they took. Apparently has been killing it in the intra-clubs too.

    Here is my analysis of his quarter-by-quarter scoring in his games last season which I think reflect his fatigue throughout the game. Far left = 1st quarter, Far right = 4th quarter.

    Round 10......... 20 - 41 - 20 - 17
    Round 11......... 37 - 26 - 13 - 42
    Round 12......... 61 - 50 - 10 - 25
    Round 14......... 11 - 21 - 17 - 18
    Round 15......... 61 - 29 - *He ended up on 150 so i'll give him 30 for the 3rd and 4th quarters Fanfooty had a glitch and doesn't present the scores for the 3rd and 4th quarters*
    Round 16......... 27 - 18 - 45 - 15
    Round 17......... 21 - 32 - 22 - 35
    Round 18......... 33 - 26 - 25 - 20
    Round 19......... 18 - 24 - 18 - 20
    Round 20......... 24 - 13 - 28 - 9
    Round 21......... 14 - 15 - 17 - 23
    Round 22......... 13 - 17 - 36 - 40
    Round 23......... 36 - 22 - 22 - 21

    First quarter SC Average - 28.9 points
    Second quarter SC Average - 25.7 points
    Third quarter SC Average - 23.3 points
    Fourth quarter SC Average - 24.23 points

    Now, anyone who knows about the SC scaling system at the end of games, it adds/subtracts points from a player based on their effectiveness during the important parts of a game. This means that if Gawn played well early in a game (the above proves this), and that was the most critical stage of a game, he'll have SC points attributed to him in the 4th quarter that he did not necessarily earn in the 4th quarter. So I'm going to give DT numbers to reflect more accurately his scoring over each quarter.

    Round 10......... 12 - 27 - 15 - 13
    Round 11......... 19 - 17 - 16 - 23
    Round 12......... 55 - 41 - 17 - 26
    Round 13......... 11 - 18 - 15 - 18
    Round 14......... 46 - 33 - 39 - 28
    Round 15......... 24 - 17 - 44 - 15
    Round 16......... 15 - 30 - 16 - 21
    Round 17......... 24 - 32 - 23 - 7
    Round 18......... 26 - 13 - 14 - 23
    Round 19......... 28 - 13 - 28 - 12
    Round 20......... 14 - 18 - 14 - 20
    Round 21......... 13 - 24 - 33 - 55
    Round 22......... 20 - 16 - 29 - 21

    First quarter DT score - 23.6 (21.9)
    Second quarter DT score - 23 (22.2)
    Third quarter DT score - 23.3 (22.3)
    Fourth quarter DT score - 21.7 (20)

    (Scores in the brackets are the average you get if you remove the highest and lowest outliers)

    What do I make of these numbers? He's a 2 point better player in the first 3 quarters than he is in the last. His SC scores in the first and second quarters in particular are his better 2 because he's not gassed out yet. When you're tired your disposal efficiency suffers. As can be seen in the DT fourth quarter stat, he averaged the least amount of DT points in that quarter. Why? Because he's gased out. I would also argue that his SC numbers for the 4th quarter are higher than the 3rd because of scaling points given to him.

    Make of these numbers what you will. With a full pre-season behind him, I'm going to back Gawn in for a big one. Not only will he improve those last quarter scores due to a big pre-season meaning he'll be able to run out games better, I don't see why he won't be able to improve the previous 3 quarters scoring too. This will elevate him to an 110+ average in my opinion and is why I've picked him.
    @Devo thoughts?
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    Re: Rucks

    I like Gawn but my problem remains pretty basic with him...

    1. His price is not cheap by any means, you're basically paying 45k less to hopefully get the same thing that Martin, Jacobs and Sandi have done multiple times.

    2. His durability record is abysmal. This is a guy who matched a career high 13 games last year.

    Those two factors are just so much risk when compared with Goldstein who is 25 points better going in and has missed 3 games less over the last 6 years than Gawn missed last year alone. I reckon you can make a case that both Jacobs and Martin are just as underpriced on what they could conceivably do, Jacobs also has greatly increased durability.

    If Gawn had a discount, a genuine discount, I'd like him a lot more because I do think he is capable of pushing the 110-115 range without doing too much new, the problem is he absolutely has to do that and has to play 20+ games to justify starting him and I can't say I feel confident about either of those requirements.

    Gawn kind of fits in the Mumford bag for me, until he can prove he can stay healthy for a year scoring premium numbers I'm just not sure the reward is worth it over guys who have given he is in the same price bracket.

    I'd love Gawn to come through with the goods though even if I don't have any intention of taking him, would be a great story at the minimum!
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    FFC CEO Narkee's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Who posted that on BF @Bunga ?
    Zach Tuohy my boy for 2017!

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    Super Moderator Bunga's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Quote Originally Posted by Narkee View Post
    Who posted that on BF @Bunga ?
    Poster called Souup - do you know anything about him? Quite impressive for a BF post
    SC is FFC's number 1 fantasy game

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    FFC General Manager Devo's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    @Bunga

    That's nice work by the guy on BF. The fitness point is spot on and it would appear to bear out in the DT/SC stats. For SC, a few of those Q3 and Q4 scores may be skewed a little by the Melbourne games that were over prior to half time (there would've been a couple games in that lot), but that will be a smaller factor than the fitness I would think.

    Max's preseason has been superb. He's been eating up the work and asking the training staff for more. He looked a million bucks in the intraclub because he's in great nick but also because he's competing against Jake Spencer, who at least gives 100% but he is a VFL player. Wogi's point about Gawn's wretched durability history is valid and needs to be taken into account, but Max's body is as good now as it has ever been and the penny would appear to have dropped about the fitness level needed.

    The bottom line for me is that Max does not answer to the names 'Stef Martin' or 'Todd Goldstein', therefore I cannot pick him. I'll be more stoked than anyone if he puts a full season in first of all, and then if he also averages 100+ DT.

    He and Hogan are without question Melbourne's most important players. We are stuffed if either go down with an injury, the depth isn't there to hide their absences.
    #teamANB

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  12. #68
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    Re: Rucks

    Quote Originally Posted by Ben the Gooner View Post
    Lobbe may be cheap, but I'll take the 10ppg head start with Martin
    I've looked at Lobbe, but do not like the set up with him in as R2. Yes, it does free up alot of cash, but IMO the risk isn't worth it. Better off just lock and loading Goldy and Martin, seen plenty of really nice teams with both in.




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    FFC Senior Assistant Coach hendo8888's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    His post history suggests he'd have to be part of SCE or equivalent.
    This post was more than likely SC based.
    If in doubt, assume it was.

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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Finding the rucks rather interesting at the moment.

    I'd say at this point we're all locking in Martin (for some reason I thought he was cheaper than Goldy).

    Goldy isn't far behind I wouldn't have thought based on what I've read on here.

    Got a few others such as Gawn/Lobbe/etc that are being considered due to them being a bit cheaper then the above options and could close the gap a little (although hard to see any more ruckman joining the 110+ average group).


    This leaves just the one spot for a rookie ruck but there are a number of rookie rucks that could be playing round 1 - Currie, Grimley, Michael and Cox are all pushing their cases forward to be selected which means a starting rookie ruck on the field could be another option to consider. I guess it depends on how the depth of the rookies are looking in other positions as I wouldn't expect to see big scores from these guys but still feel it's worth considering nonetheless.

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    Re: Rucks

    Gawn interests me as a SC ruck quite a bit, but as Wogi said its a real risk with his injury history. First full PS does make it mighty tempting though..

    Blicavs is currently the guy in my 2nd ruck spot. New rotation cap should play to his strengths perfectly.
    Only ever talking SC

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    FFC Senior Coach Elvs1's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Actually quite a good article from Herald Sun giving some critical stats about rucks from the preseason which are hard to get.
    Also confirms a ruck stat that we talked about last year but where never 100% sure on whether it did exist.
    Hitout Sharked -1

    Does highlight NN as a great option, high hit out win, high hit out to advantage, low sharked. His ruck contests is quite low to the others but he also played a lot less mins per game than others.

    Its behind the paywall so I'll just copy paste most of it below.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/af...9a1ae3c48697ab


    EVERY week of the 2016 season Champion Data will lift the veil of the SuperCoach scoring system to unpack a stat that contributes to player scores.
    The formula has been refined over many years to best reflect the actions that most affect the result of games; contested possessions rate highly, uncontested junk time marks not so much.
    In this special NAB Challenge edition ruckmen are under the microscope.

    RUCK CONTESTS 101
    As far as the stats men (and women) are concerned, a ruck contest is when one of the two ruckmen compete for the ball at a stoppage. A third-man up doesn’t figure in this statistic, as they start outside of the contest.
    One of the most important decisions SuperCoaches need to make when picking their side is what ruck set-up to adopt. Is it the ever-reliable “set and forget” option, with an example of this from last year being Todd Goldstein and Nic Naitanui. Or do you take a risker approach and look for value? This year the names Matthew Lobbe and Matthew Leuenberger fall into this basket.


    Whichever way you decide to go, analysing numbers from the NAB Challenge can give you the upper hand against the rest of the competition. For starters, you can put a line through Leuenberger after missing the entire pre-season through injury. He has made an appearance in a VFL trial game but he’s a long shot to play in Round 1.
    Looking at ruck contests attended per game, it’s Matthew Lobbe that has attended most (74.5), with Max Gawn (70) not too far behind. Last year’s top-ranked player, Goldstein, has been eased into the season and ranks fifth overall, while bench option Daniel Currie ranks seventh.
    RUCK CONTESTS PER GAME (MIN 2 GAMES)
    PLAYER RUCK CONTESTS
    Matthew Lobbe 74.5
    Max Gawn 70
    Sam Jacobs 64
    Tom Nicholls 59
    Todd Goldstein 53
    Jason Holmes 52
    Daniel Currie 46.5
    Jarrod Witts 46
    Nic Naitanui 45
    Ben McEvoy 42.7

    The effectiveness of a ruckman is measured by a hitout win percentage, that is the percentage of ruck contests resulting in a hitout win. Note that no SuperCoach points are awarded for a hitout or a third man up hitout that doesn’t go to a teammate.
    When analysing the above group by win rate, it’s Naitanui that sits atop with a win rate of 57.8 per cent, well ahead of Gawn’s 54.3 per cent. Goldstein ranks seventh, but more importantly the value pick of this year’s crop, Lobbe, ranks last. This highlights why wouldn’t pick a ruckman based on contests attended alone. What they do in the contest is paramount in SuperCoach.

    PLAYER WIN RATE %
    Nic Naitanui 57.8
    Max Gawn 54.3
    Jarrod Witts 53.6
    Sam Jacobs 50
    Ben McEvoy 46.1
    Jason Holmes 44.8
    Todd Goldstein 41.5
    Daniel Currie 40.9
    Tom Nicholls 39.8
    Matthew Lobbe 38.3

    HITOUT TO ADVANTAGE RATE
    Taking this one step further, a ruckman’s hitout-to-advantage rate is of utmost importance in SuperCoach. That is, a hitout that reaches an intended teammate.
    This results in five SuperCoach points. Goldstein’s hitout-to-advantage rate of 40.9 per cent is the highest, with Naitanui next best. Rounding out the top three is the rookie-priced Currie. Jacobs on the other hand has recorded the lowest.
    PLAYER HTA RATE %
    Todd Goldstein 40.9
    Nic Naitanui 38.5
    Daniel Currie 36.8
    Jason Holmes 34
    Matthew Lobbe 29.8
    Jarrod Witts 29.7
    Max Gawn 28.9
    Tom Nicholls 25.5
    Ben McEvoy 23.7
    Sam Jacobs 23.4

    SHARKED HITOUTS
    A hitout that directly results in an opponent’s possession isn’t ideal, with the net result being -1 SuperCoach point.
    Surprisingly, Currie’s shark rate of 5.4 per cent is clearly the lowest which is a massive bonus if he’s in your side, especially considering that Gold Coast’s No.1 ruckman Tom Nicholls isn’t the most durable player.
    Nic Naitanui is next best with a shark rate of 7.7 per cent. At the other end is Jacobs, recording a shark rate of 23.4 which is clearly the highest.
    PLAYER HITOUTS SHARKED %
    Sam Jacobs 23.4
    Jason Holmes 19.1
    Todd Goldstein 18.1
    Ben McEvoy 15.3
    Max Gawn 14.9
    Tom Nicholls 14.9
    Jarrod Witts 10.8
    Matthew Lobbe 8.8
    Nic Naitanui 7.7
    Daniel Currie 5.3

    SUPERCOACH RUCK SCORING
    STATISTIC SUPERCOACH POINTS
    Hitout 0
    Third-man up hitout 0
    Hitout to advantage 5
    Hitout sharked -1

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  19. #73
    FFC General Manager Crow-mo's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    thats interesting really shows why Sam Jacobs and Todd Goldstein score so differently

    jacobs gets to a lot more contests and wins a lot more contests; but is poor in hitout to advantage and gets sharked a lot
    you look at nic nat and he looks more impressive too
    TEX WALKER. that is all.

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    Re: Rucks

    Anyone tempted by leunberger. Certainly helps the structure in terms of minimizing the rookies on the ground. Surely he can average 70-80
    - twitter @mammes

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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Still not 100% known if he'll even play for round 1 so my concern is his body holding up long enough for him to make some cash and a rookie being able to make cash to make an upgrade in the ruck possible - close to 350k difference between Leuenberger and Goldstein/Martin so quite a bit of cash would need to be made.

    If Currie was to be named, think I'd prefer to take the risk of Currie + Grimley over Leuenberger.

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