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Thread: Rucks

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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Rucks

    All discussion to do with Rucks.


    Note: If you are talking about a player for only one competition please state if it is for DT or SC.

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    FFC Agent of Chaos Big Sledge #32's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Pretty keen on just rolling with Stef Martin in both comps this year.

    Not keen on anyone in the Essendon ruck battle, but I imagine Leuey will be popular or at least a talking point.

    I do like the idea of taking Sinclair as I think there's a lot of points for a genuine ruckman in Sydney.
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    Re: Rucks

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Sledge #32 View Post
    Pretty keen on just rolling with Stef Martin in both comps this year.

    Not keen on anyone in the Essendon ruck battle, but I imagine Leuey will be popular or at least a talking point.

    I do like the idea of taking Sinclair as I think there's a lot of points for a genuine ruckman in Sydney.
    Sinclair is an interesting one, we used Tippett a lot last year, not sure how much was by design and how much was because Pyke was crippled. Also not sure that Sinclair is a genuine ruckman but that's another story, if he can average 100+ in preseason he will be right up there.

    Personally I'm looking at NicNat, Jacobs, Goldstein, Martin and Blitz this year. Mumford has to be considered but I don't think I could do it. Kreuzer and Nicholls do appeal if fit and firing but that basically hasn't happened in 5 years so will worry about that if it happens! Grundy would appeal if Witts got injured. Ditto Ryder and Lobbe with each other.

    Really just hoping a rookie ruck appears somewhere to round it out.

    Midprice guys outside of Gorringe, Frost and Minson have just about zero appeal to me this year and even those are highly conditional! Guess Currie also deserves a mention!
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    FFC Football Operations Manager KickItToButch's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    atm Goldstein is 100% locked, he was one of my only good picks last season and is clearly the best scoring ruck in SC.

    2nd ruck is up in the air though, tossing up atm with S Martin or M Blicavs, might go Blicavs just cause a little cheaper and it will allow me to start Deledio.

    not making the same mistake as last season going with a mid price ruck, it burned me big time doing it.




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    Re: Rucks

    Quote Originally Posted by Wogitalia View Post
    Sinclair is an interesting one, we used Tippett a lot last year, not sure how much was by design and how much was because Pyke was crippled. Also not sure that Sinclair is a genuine ruckman but that's another story, if he can average 100+ in preseason he will be right up there.

    Personally I'm looking at NicNat, Jacobs, Goldstein, Martin and Blitz this year. Mumford has to be considered but I don't think I could do it. Kreuzer and Nicholls do appeal if fit and firing but that basically hasn't happened in 5 years so will worry about that if it happens! Grundy would appeal if Witts got injured. Ditto Ryder and Lobbe with each other.

    Really just hoping a rookie ruck appears somewhere to round it out.

    Midprice guys outside of Gorringe, Frost and Minson have just about zero appeal to me this year and even those are highly conditional! Guess Currie also deserves a mention!
    Currie does deserve attention as a cheaper, also another cheap option could be Frampton from Port Adelaide. If anything was to happen to Lobbe again form wise this could see Frampton start getting some game time. Ruck options are thin behind Ryder and Lobbe at Alberton with Redden retirement.




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    FFC CEO Narkee's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Grundy being missed in all this.
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    Re: Rucks

    From a DT perspective:

    The problem I see with Grundy and pretty much all rucks other than Stef and Goldy is that they just don't have the 110 ppg potential.

    Without injury Stef will 100% be in the top 2 rucks. There is no doubt. Therefore he's an automatic selection.
    I think you can make more of an argument to not start Goldy given he has just come off one of the best ruck seasons any player has ever produced. His long term history suggests he won't put up a repeat of a 110 ppg season average. If he regresses to the 100-105 then there are legitimate claims to look at other players.

    My worry is if coaches go for a Goldy/Stef + other premium priced ruck, is that they will either need a corrective trade later in the season or they will just be haemorrhaging points in the back end of the season if Goldy does manage to put up 105+ again.

    Of the other guys:
    -Jacobs so far, whenever he hasn't had a full pre-season (2013 & 2015) has had a decent SC points drop compared to his previous year (and hasn't improved DT either). Believe this year is another where he has had an interrupted start.
    -Mumford could do it, but he'll also miss games. So unless you've got cover there, it's not worth looking at, particularly over someone with Goldy's durability.
    -Blicavs maybe. But we don't really have much to judge if he's tapped out or not. He's likely relying on more possessions around the ground to bridge the gap.
    -Gawn has 100 ppg potential. But personally still don't trust his durability. Expecting him to miss at least a couple. He has the question mark over other prospects that he's never taken a full season as number 1 ruck and the hammering that puts on your body.
    -Grundy I could see putting up numbers in the 95-100 range. His VFL numbers to me don't suggest he has the fantasy upside of a Gawn. Main issue with Grundy though is that he still has Witts at the club and they will give him games. In 2015, Grundy went at 84.4DT/83.1SC in 8 games with Witts and 96/96 in 11 games without Witts.

    So my current thinking in RDT is that it's just going to be easier to lock in a Martin + Goldy combo.
    I think if you did have some doubts over Goldy, or one of the two develop an injury before the start of the season, then a Stef/Goldy + midpricer (eg Berger) is viable, as you are committing to a trade later in the season anyway. Then you can see how things play out and make sure you have the best 2 rucks come the end of the year, which in all likelihood will still be Stef and Goldy.
    Aside from Berger, the other midpricer in RDT that makes a lot of sense to me would be rolling with Nicholls at R2 and Currie R3. Not sure I love Nicholls as a player, and reckon Currie is a genuine chance of taking games off him, but if he does hold down that #1 role, is definitely underpriced and makes sense with the handcuff to Currie to minimise risk.

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Quote Originally Posted by Narkee View Post
    Grundy being missed in all this.
    Going to do a big post in a bit but figured I'd hit this one quickly...

    Grundy with Witts is not relevant, Grundy without Witts is relevant. Buckley seems obsessed with playing Witts (I don't get it at all). Thus Grundy becomes an option for mine when Witts is injured long term and not a second before. Grundy is basically Ryder, when he is the #1 ruck he is a genuine premium, when he has to share he loses points rapidly.
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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    I've gone through all the rucks I like... Pro/Con again like the backs. There is a much more varied range here obviously They're listed in order of starting price in SC from high to low


    Todd Goldstein

    2015 Average - 128.8
    5 Year Average - 110.88
    Age - 27
    5 Year Games Average - 21

    Pros

    1. Unprecedented scoring last year, if he sustains it you can basically kiss the season good bye if you don't start him or absolutely nail your choice over him to stepladder asap.
    2. Durability has been incredible, pretty sure the missed games are rests more than anything else as well.
    3. Zero competition for his spot, all the support rucks are genuine 2nd ruck/forward types, perfect scenario.
    4. You can add another 11 games from the end of 2014 to his 2015 stats and you don't dent his average, so he's actually sustained that 128 average for 32 games now, that's absurd.
    5. Legitimate captain option.

    Cons

    1. Starting price and the unprecedented position he is in. A fall has to at least be considered the likely outcome. That said, his healthy seasons contain two 113 averages and the half year in 14 when he became the lone ruck again where he is still top dog.

    Overall Feel: I think the pro vs con list kind of sums up my position. Gun to my head, Goldstein is THE ruckman I'd pick to finish top 2 and to average 110+. Now the big question... is he worth starting if he falls 10 points? IMO the answer is yes because of what the ruck scenario looks like. You've got proven guys basically and you've got a few midprice types behind that, basically you've got to nail someone moving to the 110+ position or you're going to need a trade anyway to get Goldstein. Throw in that 32 games plus another 6 finals where he still just about sustains the average (123.5) and you've got 38 games of his maintaining that kind of scoring, that's the kind of consistent form and history that suggests 125 is sustainable for Goldy and as I mentioned, if you don't start him and he does that, well it's like not having Ablett in the past, you're season is over by round 5 or 6 when you have to desperately trade to get him in! I think he is Dean Cox of the past where the risk of not starting him actually outweighs the risk of starting him.

    Stefan Martin
    2015 Average - 110.8
    5 Year Average - 91.13
    Age - 29
    5 Year Games Average - 13

    Pros

    1. Consecutive seasons of elite scoring. Especially after the Leuenberger share thing ended promptly last year. Has a 3rd season of very good scoring as well.
    2. No competition for his spot this year, he is the #1 ruck for certain and the share will be a part timer almost certainly.
    3. Massive possession totals make him very consistent and capable of huge scores.
    4. Elite midfielders around him should make his hitouts more valuable.

    Cons

    1. Durability is a bit sketchy, has been good the past two years though.

    Overall Feel: Again, very few cons in my opinion against some excellent pros. Guy can flat out score and is a beast at that. Consecutive 110+ seasons is the real standout for him, it really does set a threshold that very few other ruckmen are actually capable of making. I think he can actually go higher given his raw stats, plenty of guys improve their ratios and his raw DT position is so gluttonous that he could easily push towards 130 with a better ratio. I don't think he will, his unusual SC ratio for a ruckman is justified (tapwork is not good, disposal a bit hit and miss) but one thing I always like is guys who have a genuine area to improve that would swing their scoring. Another guy I think is a very strong starting option. If you don't start him you're basically saying he needs to maintain or drop and that whoever you take is going to push to the 110+ category. Annoying that Goldy and Martin share a bye but it is what it is!


    Sam Jacobs
    2015 Average - 108
    5 Year Average - 100.42
    Age - 28
    5 Year Games Average - 21

    Pros

    1. Durability record is outstanding.
    2. Scoring history is solid, averaged 115 in 2014. His preseason is one to watch as was poor last year which probably explains a lot. With the mark that Martin and Goldy are setting that proven ability to reach their range is important.
    3. No competition at all for his spot and well established 2nd ruck in the team who is more forward than ruck.

    Cons

    1. New coach, new system and all that. Shouldn't be an issue for him but he does get a significant amount of points from his around the ground style so worth watching if new coach uses that more or less or doesn't change at all!
    2. Loss of Danger, who was his best target and a pretty good source of HOtA, alright he was a phenomenal source!

    Overall Feel: I feel like the unknown with him just makes him feel like a worse option than the two other guys above him on this list. That said, if he looks 100% in the preseason and is looking likely to push the 110+ range, he absolutely is on the top of my list of targets. The unknown just seems an unnecessary risk though.


    Aaron Sandilands
    2015 Average - 107.8
    5 Year Average - 104.75
    Age - 33
    5 Year Games Average - 14.8

    Pros

    1. Strong scoring history including 3 seasons at the 110+ mark.
    2. Well defined role in a strong side.

    Cons

    1. Durability history is very ordinary, though last two years have been great out of nowhere.
    2. Age and hasn't hit the 110 mark in 4 seasons.
    3. Lot of capable support ruckmen which make both rest and sharing of duties very possible.

    Overall Feel: Durability record, age and scoring trend all in the wrong direction for mine but he will probably get less consideration than he deserves. For mine the other options are too good right now.

    Shane Mumford
    2015 Average - 105.7
    5 Year Average - 102.64
    Age - 29
    5 Year Games Average - 15.6

    Pros


    1. Ability to score like few others.
    2. Strong young side with improving midfielders.
    3. Clear #1 ruck.

    Cons

    1. Durability is terrible and seemingly getting worse. Knee and back issues are both generally not one offs, not the kind he has had anyway.
    2. Talented young ruckmen coming behind him need to get more exposure for their development, I count 2 that are AFL ready, so given durability and this, time share sounds logical.

    Overall Feel: His ability to score massively and potential as a 115+ type is always present but his durability is just too big an issue for me. The young rucks are also an issue, they need to get time into Lobb and Downie or they're going to lose both to other sides, neither have shown a lot as forwards so a real timeshare is possible. For me the durability is the main issue though and ultimately when you've got a couple of ironmen above him with just as much upside, I'd rather that path.

    Mark Blicavs
    2015 Average - 104.3
    3 Year Average - 79.9
    Age - 25
    3 Year Games Average - 20.3

    Pros

    1. His scoring last year was outstanding.
    2. His durability has been fantastic.
    3. His versatility make him able to score in a lot of positions.
    4. Coming to the game so late he has genuine upside still despite his age. Scores a lot of his points from tackling, I like that.

    Cons

    1. One season of proven scoring and it's actually not good enough, so has to improve further to be in the discussion.
    2. They've added Zac Smith, Vardy is healthy and you've got Stanley and Clark also who are similar types in a lot of ways. He rucked last year because there was no one else, will he do it again with other options?

    Overall Feel: Blitz was phenomenal last year and there is a very solid foundation to improve upon, does a lot of the stuff that Martin does or that Cox did before as a mobile ruckman. The uncertainty is genuine, Zac Smith was surely recruited to be the #1 ruckman (Blitz is not good in this area) and if he is, then Blitz is really a midfielder and is he good enough in that area to lose some hitouts? Maybe. Personally I don't like the uncertainty again at this price but I'll watch in the NAB Cup, he could easily go to another level as the #1 ruck.

    Nic Naitanui
    2015 Average - 103.9
    5 Year Average - 99.95
    Age - 26
    5 Year Games Average - 18.2

    Pros

    1. The scoring potential, hit 114 in 2012 before the injuries, can he get back there or higher?
    2. Strong side, strong midfield targets for his hitouts.
    3. Strongly defined role, Lycett will be his help and nothing more, Giles is the break in case of emergency guy.

    Cons

    1. Durability, not just missed games but constantly playing hurt and dragging his scores down with it.
    2. Can he get back to his best? He really needs to reach that level to justify the risk.
    3. Will they manage him more with Lycett being signed to such a big contract.
    4. Still doesn't do a lot of things, very reliant on the CB work for his scoring, will other teams find a way to take that away a bit?

    Overall Feel: I want to believe in him but his durability record probably represents too much risk given he needs to improve to be a real option. I think ultimately there is just a bit too much risk, can he get back to his best and stay there? Not to mention that his very low mark and possession style makes an off game far more likely, so available at a discount at some point anyway if you aren't just lock and loading above him. Will watch his preseason because going into 2013 it really did seem like 120+ was possible, not sure how much more he improves from here but I guess he is the age Goldy was last year right!

    Max Gawn
    2015 Average - 102.1
    5 Year Average - 76.4
    Age - 25
    5 Year Games Average - 7.8

    Pros

    1. Scoring potential, showed it in flashes last year but really does have a good fantasy game.
    2. With Jamar retirement he really is the clear best ruckman on the list and should start as a clear #1.

    Cons

    1. Durability, 7.8 over the last 5 years is terrible, does include a whole season missed but last year's 13 games was his career best.
    2. No proven history, last year was his first season above 67 and came out of nowhere.

    Overall Feel: Not a lot of interest for mine, last year was great but can he stay fit? I don't trust him at all in that regard. I think his best case is that he continues to improve and can become basically what Martin or Jacobs would be anyway, so paying roughly the same for massive downside risk because it's very possible he regresses this year.

    Ivan Maric - Next to no interest for mine, degenerative groin condition that has dragged him down for several years now and plenty of ruck support on the list.

    Brodie Grundy/Paddy Ryder/Matthew Lobbe -
    No interest from me as long as Witts and the other Port guy is fit. They just don't have the ability to go 110+ without that, I'm not sure they do anyway and at their price they need to.

    Tippett/Kreuzer/McEvoy/Nicholls -
    I don't think any of them can average 110+. Tippett is the sneaky F/R option who if he looks like he did for the last 3rd of last year might be worth looking at as a forward with a dirt cheap R/F on the bench as coverage. He did average 117 over his last 8 games of 2015.

    Sinclair/Minson -
    They're the guys who are priced cheap enough to strongly consider if they look amazing. Minson has the scoring history and Sinclair has the role change. That said, if you don't think they can go 105+ you shouldn't be thinking about them, there has to be at least a slight keeper chance there at their prices.

    Jordan Roughead - On the watch list, if he were to take the #1 ruck role then he is cheap enough to at least have a look if you aren't loading up.

    Bellchambers/Leuenberger -
    No thanks. Durability and ability concerns on both, are they worth the risk that they do nothing?

    Daniel Gorringe - Worth a strong watch. Carlton lack KP guys so who should find a role, if it's rucking, even better. At his price he only has to push 90 to be worthwhile and he has shown some actual talent in flashes. Very expensive but might be the best bench option. DPP is nice.

    Sam Frost - Injury took away last season but at 218k he is very much worth a look and consideration on the bench given there looks to be nothing. DPP as well so could work well with a Tippett up forward for example if you went down that path.

    Daniel Currie - Is behind Nicholls, who is injury prone, so could really play. Could beat Nicholls as well with a big preseason, either way he looks by far the best rookieish priced guy at this point in time.
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    FFC General Manager Devo's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    @Wogitalia 3 votes. Marvellous work you're doing with these write-ups.
    #teamANB

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    FFC General Manager Devo's Avatar
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    Rucks

    Finding it hard to look past the Stef/Goldy combo. Provided there's enough decent rookies on other lines, I'll be setting and forgetting. This is for DT.
    #teamANB

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Quote Originally Posted by Devo View Post
    Finding it hard to look past the Stef/Goldy combo. Provided there's enough decent rookies on other lines, I'll be setting and forgetting. This is for DT.
    Best part of doing this for me is getting an idea on guys I might otherwise put to the side and Goldy is the perfect example, once you look at his numbers in comparison to the others he quickly becomes a guy who you realise could ruin your season (last year also making a lot more sense when you realise just how much better he was!) and you stop looking at the price and the possibility of him coming back to the pack and start looking more at the risk of him not coming back to the pack and that you can have some decent confidence that you're paying what he is quite possibly worth!

    #inb4hefailsmiserably
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  17. #13
    Moderator Athomas's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    From Carlton pre-season reports, Phillips seems definitely ahead of Gorringe Wog. Interesting ruck scenario for us but at least we'll have some depth there hopefully.
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    Super Moderator pvcyclone's Avatar
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    Re: Rucks

    Quote Originally Posted by Athomas View Post
    From Carlton pre-season reports, Phillips seems definitely ahead of Gorringe Wog. Interesting ruck scenario for us but at least we'll have some depth there hopefully.
    Phillips ahead of Wood too?

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    Re: Rucks

    Quote Originally Posted by pvcyclone View Post
    Phillips ahead of Wood too?
    My assumption is that they'll give Phillips or Gorringe a go anyway, he's in the rehab group at the moment (Wood) and most seem to think he will be playing bullants all year.
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