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Thread: Top 8 Analysis

  1. #1
    Super Moderator Bunga's Avatar
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    Top 8 Analysis

    A poster called Triptanes from the Rolling Zone has posted a really good analysis of the top 8 teams :-

    You've probably seen a version of this graph on Fox at some stage. Except they place the crosshair at a threshold that most premiership teams have exceeded in previous years. I've just put it at the average point. Size of bubble is teams percentage.

    This is for home and away season to date.

    Dogs are directly underneath the North bubble.

    Top 8 teams generally fit into the upper quadrant.

    The exception lying outside the quadrant is Fremantle, with the lowest points against per game.

    The exception inside it is Collingwood. Probably by virtue of a great start to the year, but didn't really look into it.

    There is kind of three general areas of top 8 teams, middle of the road teams (Geelong, Collingwood, Port), and strugglers.

    Screen shot 2015-09-01 at 9.35.05 AM.png

    And then here is the top 8 ladder, of games played against each other.

    Hawks first, Sydney last by points per game (4 for a win, 0 for loss divided by number of games played).

    Richmond and North are the only ones that can change in the last round.

    West Coast were regarded as having an easy draw pre-season.WCE & Freo have ended up playing more top 8 sides than anyone else.

    Screen shot 2015-09-01 at 9.36.32 AM.png

    Then, the same graph as above, just for the top 8.

    Dogs behind Adelaide this time.

    Seems pretty telling. Hawks whip it out and show the others who is boss when it matters. Significantly better than other top 8 teams, when playing them, both offensively and defensively over the season.

    Screen shot 2015-09-01 at 9.37.22 AM.png

    Makes for some very interesting reading.
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    Re: Top 8 Analysis

    If the Hawks win the first final against the Eagles it's hard to see them not winning the flag.
    West coast win and its season wide open.
    - twitter @mammes

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    Super Moderator Bunga's Avatar
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    Re: Top 8 Analysis

    Yeah spot on faves - for the sake of a fascinating finals series, all the non Hawthorn supporters should barrack for WCE next week otherwise I suspect that if the Hawks get up they will romp it home again.
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    Re: Top 8 Analysis

    It's a great piece of work. Says a lot.

    Seen something similar on footy almanac. As at round 16, Hawthorn and WCE were nominated as being in a statistics-based premiership window that basically every premier since 2000 has been in, except the 2005 Swans. I'll find it and post it.
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    Re: Top 8 Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Devo View Post
    It's a great piece of work. Says a lot.

    Seen something similar on footy almanac. As at round 16, Hawthorn and WCE were nominated as being in a statistics-based premiership window that basically every premier since 2000 has been in, except the 2005 Swans. I'll find it and post it.
    this one I am guessing
    https://twitter.com/championdata/sta...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

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    Re: Top 8 Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by twarby View Post
    Similar sort of idea, but not quite. I'll find it tomorrow.
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    Re: Top 8 Analysis

    Here is the article I'm referring to @twarby

    http://www.footyalmanac.com.au/the-r...ership-window/

    The (Renovated) Statistical Premiership Window: How are teams placed so far in 2015

    Thanks to 3 goals 9 behinds in the first quarter from Port Adelaide in the Second Preliminary Final last year, my Statistical Premiership Window (SPW) prediction of a Port v Swans grand final failed to materialise by a paltry 4 points.
    The Hawks crashed the party and while technically not in the window, they smashed through the window frame to reach back-to-back Premiership glory.
    For those of you new to the SPW see here, here, here and here.
    After last year’s result I was going to pack it in and leave the busted SPW in pieces, but due to overwhelming demand (well at least a request – thanks PB!) I have decided to sweep up the mess left by the Hawks and try my luck again to see if the window will work in 2015. Below is the current top 8 (after Round 16) and how they sit relative to the SPW.
    2015 AFL SEASON STATISTICAL PREMIERSHIP WINDOW (Through Round 16)
    Well, this is very interesting. The Premiership Window.
    All I can say to West Coast fans out there is start booking your travel and accommodation for September because you’re going to be facing the Hawks on the big day this year.
    And yes, Docker’s fans, I can hear your complaints. I really had thought that you would have been much closer to the window this year given some of the higher scoring games we have seen from you. However, it seems that at the current stage, your Offensive Ratio has regressed in 2015. Sorry, but the wait is set to continue.
    And here is another article from the same dude dating back to 2014, explaining the methodology behind this statisitical premiership window. It provides a chart that shows where each premier from 2000 to 2013 sat in relation to the window and the results are pretty striking. There's also another chart & table combo that suggests that very few losing grand finalists over that same period made it into this window.
    I've taken some of the guff out, but there is more info at the link below.

    http://www.footyalmanac.com.au/geelo...d-trend-lines/

    Statistical Analysis and the Premiership Window

    During the 2013 AFL Premiership Season I came across a chart via twitter (thanks to @footy_maths and @BenCuzzupe) that had plotted the form of AFL teams on a chart that I found very interesting. Unfortunately, when I tried to find this link again during the 2013 finals series I was unable to, so I instead devised my own statistical analysis, which I think for the most part mirrors that I had originally seen.
    From this I devised the statistical premiership window.
    How Does It Work?
    From following the NHL this season I have come across the term “fancy stats”, which I can tell you this is not. All I have done is looked at the average scoring for and against for each team and determined the ratio against the total league average. Therefore, all I am analysing is outcomes, not those statistics such as inside 50s, tackle numbers etc. that my determine outcomes.
    For example: Team A scores a total of 2,500 points in a season compared to the league average of 2,000. Its attacking ratio (points for) is then 2,500 divided by 2,000 to equal 1.25. If Team A has 1,800 points scored against it compared to the league average of 2,000. Its defensive ratio (points against) is then 1,800 divided by 2,000 to equal 0.90.
    I have done this for all teams over the last 14 seasons (from 2000) and then plotted them onto a chart with the Y Axis (horizontal) plotting the points against ratio (under-performing above 1 and over-performing below 1) and the X Axis (vertical) plotting the points for ratio (under-performing below 1 and over-performing above 1). A typical scattering of results should generally run from bottom left (under-performing) to top right (over-performing) and naturally the top teams sitting towards the top right hand corner.
    Do You Get The Picture?

    Top Performing Teams in 2013

    The Statistical Premiership Window
    At the time I was trying to understand who might be more favoured to win the Premiership between Hawthorn’s attacking game and Fremantle’s defensive game. Looking at past winners and losers, I noted that since the 2000 grand final, 13 of the 14 premiership teams were clustered into what I call the statistical premiership window, with only one team (Sydney in 2005) falling outside of that area.
    Performance of Premiership Teams; 2000 to 2013

    Now of course I massaged the perimeter of this premiership window to fit as many teams into this as possible – so you can call me a cheat. However, if I was fudging the numbers too much to sell my story, it would be expected that the runners-up would have also fallen inside this premiership window (and a number of other finalists too). In fact only two teams, Essendon in 2001 and Brisbane in 2004 also fell inside the premiership window but lost the Grand Final (but they competed against teams that had also fallen inside the window). Other notable mentions are the Cats in 2008, Collingwood in 2011 and Hawthorn in 2012 – all falling outside the window to what would be considered the positive side (okay, consider that a fudging of numbers!).
    Hitting The Wall & Not The Window; 2000 to 2013

    Surprisingly, very few teams manage to finish the season inside the premiership window and those that do inevitably win the flag. The following table shows the number of teams to have fallen inside the window each season since 2000. My analysis would have suggested that Hawthorn would triumph over Fremantle in last years GF, as only Sydney had ever won outside of the window and that was in a year when its opponent, West Coast, also fell outside the window. It would seem that just being a superior defensive team wont deliver the premiership. I believe that the increase in numbers falling into the premiership window in recent years can be attributed to the introduction of the expansion teams, which has artificially inflated a lot of attacking ratios particularly. I believe numbers will again decline as the competition evens out a little more in coming years.
    Teams With A View Out of The Window; 2000 to 2013
    Year
    Teams
    In Window
    Premiers
    In Window
    Runner-Up
    In Window
    2000
    Essendon
    Carlton
    Yes
    No
    2001
    Essendon
    Brisbane
    Port Adelaide
    Yes
    Yes
    2002
    Brisbane
    Port Adelaide
    Yes
    No
    2003
    Brisbane
    Yes
    No
    2004
    Port Adelaide
    Brisbane
    Yes
    Yes
    2005
    St Kilda
    No
    No
    2006
    West Coast
    Adelaide
    Yes
    No
    2007
    Geelong
    Yes
    No
    2008
    Hawthorn
    Yes
    No
    2009
    Geelong
    Yes
    No
    2010
    Collingwood
    Yes
    No
    2011
    Geelong
    Hawthorn
    Yes
    No
    2012
    Sydney
    Adelaide
    West Coast
    Yes
    No
    2013
    Hawthorn
    Geelong
    Sydney
    Yes
    No


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    FFC Senior Assistant Coach Robbo's Avatar
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    Re: Top 8 Analysis

    Are GWS just left off the first chart Bunga? Poor GWS lol.
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    Super Moderator Bunga's Avatar
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    Re: Top 8 Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Robbo View Post
    Are GWS just left off the first chart Bunga? Poor GWS lol.


    Good point mate, I will ask what happened to them.
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    Super Moderator Bunga's Avatar
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    Re: Top 8 Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Robbo View Post
    Are GWS just left off the first chart Bunga? Poor GWS lol.
    An answer :-

    I actually realised straight after I posted it, but couldn't be bothered uploading to change.

    They are also in that middle of the road group with Geelong etc. They are just below Collingwood and just to the left of the average. Overlapping slightly with both if I remember correctly. Will post the amended one later today.

    Dogs are almost directly under the Roos, but don't quite have the same centre and have a slightly larger circle, it's hard to tell from that though.
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  13. #11
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    Re: Top 8 Analysis

    Ah fair enough, i even looked on the key on the right but they weren't on that list either so thought it was even more suspicious than just being under another circle.

    Middle of the road would make sense
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