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Thread: AFL Finals 2015

  1. #61
    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: AFL Finals 2015

    I really hope we don't run with a spare in our defense which means Wood is your spare man, especially if Ricky Henderson is ours - Feels like we do terrible when we run with a loose man given he very rarely influences the contest when teams push into our backline and just sets us back when we hit the oppositions loose man on the chest inside our forward line.

  2. #62
    Super Moderator divvydan's Avatar
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    Re: AFL Finals 2015

    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    I really hope we don't run with a spare in our defense which means Wood is your spare man, especially if Ricky Henderson is ours - Feels like we do terrible when we run with a loose man given he very rarely influences the contest when teams push into our backline and just sets us back when we hit the oppositions loose man on the chest inside our forward line.
    We've been able to free Wood up without playing a loose man quite effectively this year. Mainly by playing a team based defence rather than 1-1 and playing in front of the opposition it allows a player like Wood the ability to peel off or take a less dangerous opponent and then help out. Adelaide would be well advised to either go fast and get over the back or if that's not possible, make sure Wood's opponent makes him accountable.

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    Re: AFL Finals 2015

    Heard today that no player sets up a scoring chain more than Wood does through his intercepts. Really need to clamp his influence

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    Re: AFL Finals 2015

    Freo is being stupidly underrated at the moment, I can't remember worse reaction to a minor premiership and qualifying final victory.

    I understand that we don't have the exciting 100+ scores of other teams, but despite all criticisms we have still been the most consistent winners all season by reasonably comfortable margins. All season, and most of his coaching career Lyon has made it plainly obvious for anyone interested enough to notice that he'll look for a strong start and then shut the game down, keeping opponents at arms length. His message all year long has been about keeping the squad fit and available, and it's through careful management more than luck that we'll be going into a home preliminary final with our best 22. We're evidently missing firepower up forward, but we've had no trouble kicking a winning score all season and I have no idea why that's suddenly a problem now. Playing Hawthorn in Melbourne I wouldn't be confident as we seem to panic over there against them, but playing them here we have a good record and we match up sensationally against West Coast, which is why their victory on Friday night was ideal. Despite their outs, Sydney played well yesterday but I never felt we were in danger of losing, we're fantastic in tight games and our game style is essentially built for finals. It's only when we need 3+ goals in the last few minutes that our game style opens up out of necessity and we can get blown away. Freo have been unfashionable for most of the season but I think it's getting ridiculous now, we've been the hardest to beat all season and I haven't seen a reason to think any differently yet.
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    Super Moderator Bunga's Avatar
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    Re: AFL Finals 2015

    The main issue I see @hedgehog is that you are seem very reliant on your small Fwds Walters & Balla to kick the goals for you, need 5 or 6 from them each final as your key Fwds aren't providing much at all in the goal scoring department. History has shown that big power Fwds are very important in the big games so there is a question mark there.
    Also have had fast starts in many games then shut the game down which seems to be the preferred method as you said. But when the opposite has happened like v Richmond & WCE in round 20, were not able to turn it around & win so in essence there is a question mark re Freo's ability to score heavily in a quick space of time/lack potency so if you don't start fast will you be able to score enough to win?
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    FFC General Manager twarby's Avatar
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    Re: AFL Finals 2015

    you guys were awesome early in the year, game plan isn't the same as it was then.

    Not often the QF winner is talked down more than the loser of that game, its usually the complete opposite, I thought you were quite poor on the weekend but WCE winning still gives Ross his best chance of a premiership, beating Hawthorn at home is a possibility, doubt it would have been at the MCG, not going to be any better time to get them with all that travel and a tough game this week, thats if they even beat Adelaide who match up incredibly well with them.

    I'd almost tip Freo if it was a Derby GF for the simple fact most the team has experienced GF day before, there's very little between the sides

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    Re: AFL Finals 2015

    Quote Originally Posted by Bunga View Post
    The main issue I see @hedgehog is that you are seem very reliant on your small Fwds Walters & Balla to kick the goals for you, need 5 or 6 from them each final as your key Fwds aren't providing much at all in the goal scoring department. History has shown that big power Fwds are very important in the big games so there is a question mark there.Also have had fast starts in many games then shut the game down which seems to be the preferred method as you said. But when the opposite has happened like v Richmond & WCE in round 20, were not able to turn it around & win so in essence there is a question mark re Freo's ability to score heavily in a quick space of time/lack potency so if you don't start fast will you be able to score enough to win?
    I don't really see it, clearly they're two of our best forwards but it's not like our midfield isn't capable of kicking goals either, see the first derby. The 'power forward' argument has been there all year and we haven't lost a big game yet. Both those games we got ambushed by a team that had clearly come to play, and we were flat. It's obviously difficult to come from 8-9 goals down, the richmond game was something like 8.0 from 9 inside 50s. Kick like that and you'll beat anyone. There'd be similar concerns on the eagles when the game isn't played on their terms, their record in close games is pretty average this year. I know eagles are playing great footy at the moment but my point is that the 'gap' between us that i'm reading about on any footy media website is non-existent.
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  9. #68
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    Re: AFL Finals 2015

    Freo an interesting position... Sydney played predictably terrible once again and still really should have won that game, if we'd kicked even reasonably at goal we'd have won and we were awful, I actually think someone told our guys we were wearing purple the amount of times we hit you guys lace out under no pressure.

    That said, Freo are exactly where they want to be, they played pretty ordinary but they won and now have the chance to beat Adelaide/Hawthorn to go to the GF where they'd be a real chance against anyone on the other side. Hard to read anything out of that game, they played a team that is terrible and did play terribly and managed to drag the game down to that level for the most part and Freo came out of it without injury and with the win but it's hard to take any confidence because they let a shithouse team dictate terms quite a bit and if they let a team like Hawthorn or West Coast (or even Adelaide) do that to them they'll get thrashed (similar to the last derby or Hawks games really).

    My takes out of the finals...

    Adelaide/WB - Going to be very interesting to see how Adelaide goes here, they got the one side who was also happy to not really play finals football with them and it made for a very interesting game of two teams letting each other do what they want and hope their product was stronger. I don't see Hawthorn letting that happen, especially after their embarrassing effort but if it does happen Adelaide have shown they can gun with anyone (I didn't see Hawthorn letting the Eagles do it and they did so who knows). Adelaide have real firepower right now but I still think they're very vulnerable to being bullied (like Geelong did to them last week) and I have no read on them, teams let them play their way and they can and will beat you, that much they've shown and they can do it to anyone but it still feels like they're relying on the other teams letting them play their way rather than being capable of dictating it yet, we find out this week!

    North/Richmond - Pretenders battle was as expected, Richmond found ways to lose to the one side they had no case losing to and thus out goes the actual threat in this game because North aren't a good side that should trouble anyone but Sydney or Adelaide of the sides left. I actually feel for Richmond fans at this point, they're a side that just keeps finding new ways to torture their fans. I mean I could understand if they lost because the North forwards caught fire or because their forwards couldn't do anything but to lose because their vastly superior midfield got embarrassed by one of the weaker midfields in the league... well that's just torture to your fans. Brutal. Well done to North, their forward line worked really well and they won the battle they had no case winning (by a landslide), that's how you beat sides you really shouldn't. I don't think any of the other midfields (except maybe Sydney's) will let them physically beat them though.

    West Coast/Hawthorn - Eagles were awesome. I can't remember seeing the Hawks roll over like that and submit to pressure other than against Richmond (da **** is with that!), Eagles just owned the game, if they didn't put the cue in the rack and the cover back on the table and coast home that could have been an 80+ margin easily. Eagles fans are rightfully getting back to their arrogant and unbearable best (worst?) because they looked awesome. The rest is massive for them as well, lets a few guys really heal up. Hawks have to be worried, they were beaten everywhere and the Crows are actually very similar to the Eagles. Jacobs will dominate the ruck, Talia will take away Roughy for the most part and Walker, Jenkins, Lynch and Betts will cause all the same mismatches that the Eagles forwards did, Walker will get on the lead against Lake (if he is smart), Jenkins will get dangerous and Lynch will make sure Gibson has to make tough choices. Their midfield will also cause them real issues if they fire up a bit. Adelaide can absolutely beat them if they play like they did, they looked old and slow and they crumbled under pressure. I expect they bounce back but if they don't they'll actually lose.

    Sydney/Fremantle - I don't know what to take out of this one, I mean Sydney were better than expected and Freo were a fair bit worse (I had 40+ as a reasonable margin and 60+ as what I expected) and I think it was far more Freo just meandering through and doing what was needed than really anything Sydney did (outside of Kennedy, he was awesome). Sydney look bad enough to lose to North, that's for sure. We didn't get close to hitting a target, we couldn't kick easy set shots, we couldn't have got a tackle bag to the ground for most of the game, we fumbled everything and we've got about 5 passengers (One legged Pyke, BJack, Lloyd, Laidler and Jetta (**** that group were bad)). I think the worst thing watching was that Freo didn't kick a single goal where we put pressure on them, every one of their goals looked like training drills, either untouched marks or guys just picking it up and jogging to the goal under no pressure. Just a brutal game to watch, I think Longmire might be the worst coach in the game right now, his ability to give the opposition exactly what they want so that we can't have what we should want is actually kind of amazing. His game plan seemed to be "How can we get Sandi, Ibbo and Johnson loose behind the ball so that we can kick it on their heads?" Instead of trying to get Tippett, Rohan, Towers (shockingly good), Heeney and Goodes into one out situations where they're all actually dangerous.

    Freo are tough to read, they didn't have to get out of first gear... and at the same time, they didn't get out of first gear. They've done nothing to answer the question of whether they actually can still get out of first gear and that's why people are doubting them. If they show up and play they would've won by 100+ but they were perfectly happy to just coast through and never really force their will upon the game. They basically went 4th quarter Eagles for 4 quarters. We don't learn anything about them until they face Hawks if it happens. Freo are basically the unknown (that we know really well, if that makes sense) because they played a rubbish side and they did all they needed to do but they weren't really tested, it's not a bad position to be in to be able to rest your best defender and casually nurse your best midfielder and KPF through the game like you weren't even challenged. They never felt like losing (partly because it was taking 7 shots for the Swans to score 12 points...) but it would have been interesting to see if Freo could have done anything had the Swans actually kicked straight enough to jump them. I think the only concern for Freo has to be the quality of shots they gave up to the Swans (who are one of the worst in the league at quality of I50 normally), the shots the Swans had they should have kicked 18.7 if they'd kicked at even an average level, that would have certainly changed things rapidly if it had happened (I fully expect Freo would have answered it because they scored basically every time they went forward) but it still the unanswered what if.

    So yeah... Eagles looked great and the team to beat now. Hawks didn't show up which I guess is a cause for concern but at the same time also the reason they're still so dangerous, if they'd shown up and had that happen it would be a major worry but they'll know how bad they were. Dockers were asked next to nothing and as a result they provided next to no answers (do agree with Hedgey that they are a real shot, just because they weren't tested and didn't feel a need to destroy Sydney isn't a reason to write them off, if anything it's the kind of arrogance that has defined Hawthorn in the past). Adelaide showed that when they get to play how they want, they can do real damage, next step is to show they can still find ways when what they want isn't offered on a platter. North have the dream draw to make a preliminary final and then lose by 80+ again because the Swans were woeful and North should go in as favourites purely on that but if that game isn't the who cares cup of who loses to West Coast by 10 goals then I'll be shocked (both if the game is anything and if the winner gets close to WC).

    Also... the umpiring was so bad this weekend, I don't think I've ever seen the umpires perform so badly in the finals before, normally we get the better crews and a better interpretation of the rules. This week it looked like the umpires had been told not to call holding the ball or illegal disposal unless they absolutely had to (like taken on 3 guys and beaten them before getting tackled... and even then some times). They didn't have the guts to make any of the real calls. We had 3 pretty good games (and the Dockers/Swans) and yet I think the pathetic umpiring was probably the thing I most noticed in them.

    As for next week... Hawks and Adelaide looks by far the better game because both those sides look like they could win the flag. North vs Sydney will be a 50 point margin to North based on exposed form but who knows what North shows up.
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  10. #69
    FFC Football Operations Manager Nothing's Avatar
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    Re: AFL Finals 2015

    Wogi, I agree with parts of your assessment of the Swans but there are a few things I'll point out from my view. You had the best players on the ground... and the worst. As well as JPK, Hanners, McVeigh, Tippett, Goodes and to a lesser degree Towers, Mitchell and Shaw were excellent. The first 5 towelled up their repsective opponents. The bottom end were pretty disappointing.
    A lot has been made of Swans dominating the game but at the ground, I thought it was fairly even. Swans didn't take their chances in front of goal but their forward pressure helped get the repeat shots.
    I thought Freo got that early jump and then held on. They didn't play fantastic footy but I thought Sydney brought a lot more intensity than Hawks the night before.

    FWIW, I think WC make the GF and Freo have a great chance of making it a derby one, but will need to have everything go right from here to win it.

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    Re: AFL Finals 2015

    Personally I think Sydney savage North and get beaten by West Coast a week after.

    I think we have the fire power up forward to keep with Hawthorn but our midfield needs to do better than it did against the dogs. I felt like we were mauled but I haven't checked the stats. No Gunston would be huge for us.
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    Re: AFL Finals 2015

    Only saw the first quarter and a half of the Sydney v Freo match, thought Goodes was looking very good.


    Big thing for Adelaide is to actually win the midfield clearances. Past two weeks our ruck has beaten the opposition yet the opposition midfield as read the hitouts far better then our own which has resulted in them getting a lot more inside 50 entries. Geelong pumped us because of this and we were lucky to get away with the win against the Bulldogs as the same thing happened.

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    Re: AFL Finals 2015

    Booked my tickets for Friday. The Road Trip rolls on!
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    Re: AFL Finals 2015

    Quote Originally Posted by hendo8888 View Post
    Booked my tickets for Friday. The Road Trip rolls on!
    Nice work mate. Felt like their were more Crows than Dogs Saturday night!
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    Re: AFL Finals 2015

    Quote Originally Posted by hendo8888 View Post
    Booked my tickets for Friday. The Road Trip rolls on!
    Nice work mate. Felt like their were more Crows than Dogs Saturday night!
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    Re: AFL Finals 2015

    Quote Originally Posted by Nothing View Post
    Wogi, I agree with parts of your assessment of the Swans but there are a few things I'll point out from my view. You had the best players on the ground... and the worst. As well as JPK, Hanners, McVeigh, Tippett, Goodes and to a lesser degree Towers, Mitchell and Shaw were excellent. The first 5 towelled up their repsective opponents. The bottom end were pretty disappointing.
    A lot has been made of Swans dominating the game but at the ground, I thought it was fairly even. Swans didn't take their chances in front of goal but their forward pressure helped get the repeat shots.
    I thought Freo got that early jump and then held on. They didn't play fantastic footy but I thought Sydney brought a lot more intensity than Hawks the night before.

    FWIW, I think WC make the GF and Freo have a great chance of making it a derby one, but will need to have everything go right from here to win it.
    I'd actually disagree with a lot of that Swans list. I thought that Hanners, McVeigh and Mitchell were three of our worst, they butchered it terribly by foot and were three of the major culprits. Goodes also butchered it by foot, the booing was never going to stop when it became so obvious to the Dockers fans that it was working perfectly (I actually give credit to the fans in that regard as bad as it looks, when you boo a guy and he forgets how to kick you keep booing him, just like the Eagles fans did to Hodge and he was shaken by it) but Goodes was our best forward target and the only guy who seemed to want to work to relieve the backmen of pressure so he gets a pass. McVeigh in particular was shocking by his standards (the other two were just below their own very below average kicking standards), McVeigh had one kick in where he found Sandi in 20 metres of space with a perfect drop punt, it was one of the very worst kicks I've ever seen, how you miss a zero pressure kick by a good 35 metres astounds me but really just summed up the Swans. Towers was a shock, he was actually very good (though he did make a real mess of that open goal and his set shots...). Tippett was great, really won his matchup and actually kicked straight (how is Tippett our best shot at goal...). Shaw was very good and better than normal by foot which was nice.

    Sydney should have gotten the early jump, we just kicked like ass all game, that first quarter we didn't have a shot that an AFL player should have any trouble slotting and should have been 6.1 allowing for pretty average kicking even the shots were that easy. McGlynn missed from 15m out, Towers and Tippett from 25m out, McGlynn from 40m directly in front, they were just easy shots. Dockers on the flipside had the same basic chances and took them all and that was ultimately the difference in the game. It helped that no one put pressure on any of the marks or kicks but they still went back and slotted it.

    I tend to agree with you on the fact Sydney didn't dominate. It felt like we have about 70% of the forward half time but the Dockers never had pressure going forward (largely because they kept giving it to Hill and letting him run away from Jetta who just stood there picking his nose) and so every time you went forward it was clean and precise and resulted in a goal. As I said, I don't think the Dockers were forced out of first gear at any point in the match and they were just coasting along and waiting for Sydney to make mistakes (which we consistently did) and then punishing them. They were super efficient. I still think their only concern was that they gave up a lot of quality shots to a pretty dreadful team, give those chances to any of the other sides remaining and they are going to have to work a lot harder to win. I'm not going to hold the fact they played a nothing team against them, they didn't need 2nd gear so they didn't use it. It doesn't answer my question on whether they've lost 2nd gear at all but you can't criticise them for not wasting energy.

    Also fully agree we had too many passengers. Lloyd was awful (I don't understand him as an AFL player, soft as butter, fumbles everything, average kick at best and doesn't even gut run or anything, I don't know what he is meant to be providing. Jetta was even worse, he never got out of neutral all game and the amount of times the Dockers just kicked to him vs Hill in what were genuine 50/50s knowing that Hill would win the ball easily and then get to jog away with no pressure was disgusting, Jetta would have my vote for worst on given the disparity between his skills and his effort (I just assume he has chosen the Dockers as his side next year and didn't want to burn them because he was disgusting out there), Rohan was poor but still applied pressure at least, Heeney worked hard but his disposal was awful, Cunningham consistently stood and watched Walters run away, he had one job and that was to stay connected to Walters like a parasite and yet he didn't do it time and time again. BJack is awful, he is fast but he doesn't use it for anything, poor at pressure work, worse with the ball (when he doesn't just fumble it away...). Too many passengers and I think that's where the injuries have stacked up. That's when losing 5 of your 10 best really makes the impact is that you don't just lose them but you have to play liabilities instead, especially with our better depth guys also hurting (Robinson and Bird in particular).

    Dockers have to be happy, they weren't tested, they weren't hurt, they really had a nice casual trip through to a prelim and can enjoy the rest. They handled the challenge of playing a nothing side with good discipline and took advantage of the matchup. Again, makes it hard to read much off them but it's exactly what they would have wanted.
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