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Thread: 2015 AFL Draft

  1. #31
    Moderator Skeeta's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 AFL Draft

    I think there is probably an agreement that clubs will bid on fair value. If Carlton has a top FS prospect then they could get shit on if they've shown they're willing to dog other clubs.
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    Re: 2015 AFL Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Skeeta View Post
    I think there is probably an agreement that clubs will bid on fair value. If Carlton has a top FS prospect then they could get shit on if they've shown they're willing to dog other clubs.
    I do agree that it wouldn't make you all that popular in terms of future trading/bidding, but I don't see how non-academy clubs can get screwed over unless they have multiple FS prospects in a single year. Any non-top 4 club has enough points to match a Pick 1 bid with the picks they have.
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  3. #33
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    Re: 2015 AFL Draft

    I won't be surprised to see Carlton open the draft with a bid of Mills.

    They won't dog GWS because they probably have a gentleman's agreement given their bulk trading in recent years. But I expect everyone else to be bidding to keep GWS honest.

    I still have no idea who Adelaide are likely to end up with. One of Francis/Milera sliding is a chance but given the extra picks that Carlton/Melbourne have kind of put the likes of that in doubt.
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    Re: 2015 AFL Draft

    Is it worth Carlton or Brisbane risking GWS or Sydney not matching on Mills and risk missing out on Weitering or Schache?
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    Re: 2015 AFL Draft

    I've always wondered whether a club would choose not to match. Has it ever happened with FS? Doubt it. Thing is if GWS didn't match what do they gain? Isn't like they have a top pick to capitalise on it.
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    Re: 2015 AFL Draft

    Not that I think Carlton would bid, but FWIW Mills is an absolute beast and may well have been #1 with an injury free year anyway. Guy racked up 40d in his 2nd NEAFL game for the Swans, in his underage year in 2014. If he can avoid injury has fantasy stud written all over him.

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 AFL Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Skeeta View Post
    I've always wondered whether a club would choose not to match. Has it ever happened with FS? Doubt it. Thing is if GWS didn't match what do they gain? Isn't like they have a top pick to capitalise on it.
    This is the first time it's really been an issue though because in the past it was always at least a decent discount instead of mortgaging an entire draft for one player.

    Sydney for example might get Dunkley and another couple of top 30ish prospects instead of just Mills by not matching.

    I think given the needs of Brisbane and Carlton they'd be pretty stupid to be bidding. This has been a top 2 and then dust draft for a good 6 months now and those top two are exactly what those teams need. Lot of risk to bid top 2 for a guy who has basically not played all season and is a legitimate go home risk as well to mostly just be a pain in another teams ass. The GWS boys are basically the same minus the not playing thing so still a lot of risk.

    Will be interesting though. I still think Melbourne is the team that bids but I'm not certain, they've moved up for a reason and you'd assume it's probably not to get their pick matched.
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    Re: 2015 AFL Draft

    The "top 2 and then dust" comment is surely not including the academy players, because from what I've read they seem to be right up there, and most only have them going at Picks 3-6 because Carlton and Brisbane seem to be perfect fits for Weitering/Schache.

    Obviously the risk is there but it's not as though Carlton would say no to Mills/Hopper, they're hardly stocked with elite midfield talent. Brisbane probably have a stronger need for a KP player than Carlton who could really just need quality everywhere, Mills/Hopper would probably be their best young player still and a Brisbane bid would be around 400 points cheaper than a Carlton bid, meaning it would be much more likely for GWS to match. The go home factor would be very minor as well I'd say.
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  9. #39
    Fort Kickass Ben the Gooner's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 AFL Draft

    It's essentially just an article assuming that some mediocre Hun hack who spent a morning watching YouTube highlights has his top 10 spot on.

    Not that I don't think the Dees will pick Parish, but there's zero chance they'd be telling anyone about it just yet.
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    Re: 2015 AFL Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by hedgehog View Post
    The "top 2 and then dust" comment is surely not including the academy players, because from what I've read they seem to be right up there, and most only have them going at Picks 3-6 because Carlton and Brisbane seem to be perfect fits for Weitering/Schache.

    Obviously the risk is there but it's not as though Carlton would say no to Mills/Hopper, they're hardly stocked with elite midfield talent. Brisbane probably have a stronger need for a KP player than Carlton who could really just need quality everywhere, Mills/Hopper would probably be their best young player still and a Brisbane bid would be around 400 points cheaper than a Carlton bid, meaning it would be much more likely for GWS to match. The go home factor would be very minor as well I'd say.
    It's hard to tell, Mills is ending up 3rd in a lot of mocks by default, he's barely played this season and had I think it's 3 different injuries, that doesn't exactly scream that anyone else has done much to really justify it but I haven't seen anyone but the top 2 in the top 2 for pretty much the entire season.

    History says you take the elite KP prospect over the similar level midfielders so it's just hard to see a team that hasn't got any of it's spine in place (Casboult is legitimately their best KP player) passing on them, just seems a very gutsy approach.

    Think go home is a very relevant factor, especially for Brisbane where they've basically got nothing to offer except cheap property but also for Carlton, these academy guys have been around their club for 5+ years, it's basically all they know in football, Sydney will be where family is for them and unless they're attention whores for football focus is offering at least as much on a lifestyle front. It won't be as strong as the go home factor is from Perth/Adelaide to Melbourne but it's certainly something that you'd be thinking about when you're using the first pick on a guy who is generally regarded as a lesser option in the first place which is the bigger part. It's one thing to reach but it's pretty gutsy to overbid on the lesser prospects that don't fit need as much and have more risks attached just to spite other clubs (having written that... it seems like the kind of stupid thing that Carlton would do, so now I'm afraid!

    I'm intrigued where the guys go and how the bidding works. Live bidding changes the whole dynamic for mine, there will be a point where someone has to do it but that's also the point where you can guarantee it gets matched. It will be interesting given how protective clubs are of their reputations and the bad karma that overbidding would attract in that regard (in fairness from pick 3 onward is a fair bid on all the top 3 guys so it's really only Carlton and Brisbane who might play games).
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    Re: 2015 AFL Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Wogitalia View Post
    It's hard to tell, Mills is ending up 3rd in a lot of mocks by default, he's barely played this season and had I think it's 3 different injuries, that doesn't exactly scream that anyone else has done much to really justify it but I haven't seen anyone but the top 2 in the top 2 for pretty much the entire season.

    History says you take the elite KP prospect over the similar level midfielders so it's just hard to see a team that hasn't got any of it's spine in place (Casboult is legitimately their best KP player) passing on them, just seems a very gutsy approach.

    Think go home is a very relevant factor, especially for Brisbane where they've basically got nothing to offer except cheap property but also for Carlton, these academy guys have been around their club for 5+ years, it's basically all they know in football, Sydney will be where family is for them and unless they're attention whores for football focus is offering at least as much on a lifestyle front. It won't be as strong as the go home factor is from Perth/Adelaide to Melbourne but it's certainly something that you'd be thinking about when you're using the first pick on a guy who is generally regarded as a lesser option in the first place which is the bigger part. It's one thing to reach but it's pretty gutsy to overbid on the lesser prospects that don't fit need as much and have more risks attached just to spite other clubs (having written that... it seems like the kind of stupid thing that Carlton would do, so now I'm afraid!

    I'm intrigued where the guys go and how the bidding works. Live bidding changes the whole dynamic for mine, there will be a point where someone has to do it but that's also the point where you can guarantee it gets matched. It will be interesting given how protective clubs are of their reputations and the bad karma that overbidding would attract in that regard (in fairness from pick 3 onward is a fair bid on all the top 3 guys so it's really only Carlton and Brisbane who might play games).
    Concur that it's difficult to tell exactly, but do you really see Sydney passing Mills over if Carlton bid? It's the only weakness of what is some canny trading by GWS and Sydney, you're essentially locking yourself in to match whatever is bid.

    Disagree that you take a KP prospect over a similar level midfielder. History says that as a general rule, drafting talls in the top 5 or so picks is a terrible idea, only Hogan and Hurley have come close to earning their draft position in the last 10 years. You'd take an elite KP player over and elite midfielder, but an elite KP prospect is a lot less likely to make it to the elite level than an elite midfield prospect is.
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  12. #42
    Fort Kickass Ben the Gooner's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 AFL Draft

    I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Dees have their eye on Mills and will bid at 3, but if they end up with Parish as most people expect, I think we'd bid on Hopper.

    I'm assuming the Dees/Giants and Dons/Swans trades had a wink and a nudge "don't bid on our guys" rider with them.
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    Re: 2015 AFL Draft

    Top 30 of Brett Anderson's mock from Inside Football:

    and FWIW in terms of draft journos with inside info Quayle>Anderson>rest imo.

    1. Weitering (CAR)
    2. Schache (BRL)
    3. Mills (SYD)
    4. Curnow (MEL)
    5. Hopper (GWS)
    6. Parish (ESS)
    7. Weideman (ESS)
    8. Oliver (GCS)
    9. Kennedy (GWS)
    10. Collins (MEL)
    11. H.McKay (CAR)
    12. Hipwood (BRL)
    13. Milera (ADE)
    14. Francis (CAR)
    15. Ah Chee (RIC)
    16. B.McKay (ADE)
    17. Mathieson (STK)
    18. Bonner (HAW)
    19. Keays (BRL)
    20. Clarke (GCS)
    21. Hibberd (NTH)
    22. Rioli (HAW)
    23. Gresham (CAR)
    24. Tucker (WBD)
    25. Fiorini (WBD)
    26. Balic (FRE)
    27. Johnson (WCE)
    28. Cole (ESS)
    29. Burton (ESS)
    30. Redman (NTH)

  14. #44
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    Re: 2015 AFL Draft

    Francis at 14
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    Re: 2015 AFL Draft

    Ben McKay at 16 seems very high as well along with Burton dropping to 29.

    Always feels like there's late bolters the closer the draft gets when in reality it's probably clubs starting to show their hands to the media a little more.



    From the little I've read and those that seem to be around our mark, I think my preference is Francis > Oliver/H.McKay > Burton > Milera however I try not to get too attached to any draftee's given it doesn't tend to go the way you expect.

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