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Thread: 2015 Predictions Discussion

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    FFC General Manager twarby's Avatar
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    2015 Predictions Discussion

    think we had one of these last year too to keep the mess out of the other one.
    Hawthorn
    Sydney
    Port Adelaide
    Fremantle
    Geelong
    North
    Essendon
    Gold Coast
    Richmond
    Adelaide
    West Coast
    GWS
    Brisbane
    Collingwood
    Carlton
    Melbourne
    Western Bulldogs
    St Kilda

    my biggest changes from a couple months ago are GC, GWS up and Collingwood & Carlton down, I think Dogs look better aswell from my original expectations but still think they lack the talent to play to that game plan at least for a season, Beveridge looks good on first impressions though.
    I think the Hawks are a long way ahead of the pack and if they stay healthy and hungry will not be challenged.
    4th to Adelaide is pretty close and really wouldn't be too surprised if any of those were in different spots

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 Predictions Discussion

    I haven't looked at fixtures for this which can change it a bit, it's basically my rankings of the teams rather than a perfect ladder prediction!

    Hawthorn - Look a level above to me on paper. They look in better shape than last year through the preseason, think the history motivator is working for them!

    Sydney - Questions over the fringe players, aging KP guys and injuries already are popping up. KP Depth is a real concern.
    Fremantle - KP is the big question. They need Pavlich and McPharlin to stay healthy for finals, not sure if they rest them more this year for that purpose. They need Taberner to improve and Mayne to bounce back and they need a bit of luck with injuries. Depth issues all over for mine but KP is the obvious weakness.
    Geelong - I think they might be 2nd best on paper. The Clark addition is massive, they not only get a legitimate KPF, they get a Brownlow medalist in their midfield as well. You go from Bartel being an above average forward to an elite midfielder, that's like gaining 2 players for the price of one. Their defense should be elite, their forwardline should be very dangerous and their midfield is suddenly very good with the likes of Bartel and Kelly suddenly back in it.
    Port - I'm not as big a fan as most, I almost put them in the next group. They're KP depth is terrible, even their starters aren't great. Ryder is a great addition but I just don't think they're better than the above sides still, their midfield is their strength, their defense is certainly behind it and they lack forwards who can deliver under pressure, Hoff is closer to a Goodes than he is Franklin at this point and Schulz is your classic flat track bully. Still, their midfield is outstanding and if it can stay on the park they're in great shape. Will be interesting to see how the midfield holds up should they get any injuries, it is absurdly top heavy in terms of the lifting.

    North - Like the additions and think they're solid across the board, just lack a bit of midfield class still for mine, Harvey, Wells and Dal Santo are still really the only guys that create fear with the ball. Will be workmanlike and think they can push for top 4 but ultimately I don't rate them as high as the previous 5 sides and I don't think they have the depth to cover for injuries.
    Richmond - Tough to read, I think the back half side is more what they are than the front half of last year but they need to stay fit. Depth is very poor and they need Maric, Deledio, Cotchin, Martin, Rance and Riewoldt to play close to 22. They need to get something from Griffiths or Hampson because they need a 2nd target.
    Essendon - Forward targets are again the problem, (ignoring the obvious elephant in the room). Their midfield is good but similar to North it lacks a bit of polish which means it can get caught out under pressure. Like the rest of this group, in a perfect season they can push for top 4.
    Adelaide - Their midfield can be great, the Crouch injury is a blow but it's still a top heavy quality group. The small defenders and forwards are good. The KP1 at both ends is elite... and then it falls off the face of the Earth. It's just hard to see how they stop sides with 2 or more KPFs and it's hard to see how they score goals against sides that can limit Walker. Basically I see them needing 8+ goals from Walker and Betts to win games against quality sides.
    Gold Coast - Injury concerns are why I have them down here. Need to see if May, Thompson, Lynch (suspension admittedly), Dixon, Day, O'Meara, Bennell and Ablett can stay on the field and I've made this pick based on several of those failing to do so, they've had just about the worst preseason of anyone this side of West Coast and the Bulldogs, so many vital pieces will be underdone. Luckily the AFL has given them a gifted start to the season so they might be able to start well as they build fitness anyway.
    GWS - Their midfield should move into the elite group this year, heck it could be the best in the league if Griffen is fully fit. Cameron is elite but they need a 2nd forward target. Their defense looks very solid now and is nice and settled. They need to bring it like they do against Sydney against everyone and then they can beat just about anyone. Don't think they win a final if they make it barring some luck but they should be pushing for the 8.

    Brisbane - Midfield is absolutely elite. Their best player missing the first half of the season is a massive blow though and their KPF are non-existent. I think they'll actually be quite good defensively, like their mix, but they're going to need an oversupply from the midfield to win games because they're going to be relying on crumbing goals. They'll need to model themselves off of Sydney in 2012 for mine where they rely on the KPF to get it to ground more than anything else. Midfield takes them wherever they go though, it's good enough to beat anyone.
    West Coast - McKenzie dropped them a whole group. Darling dropped them below Brisbane in that group. Their midfield needs to improve, something we've been saying for a long time now. All of a sudden they're very weak in the KPD area and makes the whole defense a worry. Forwards look solid on paper but only one decent target and a midfield that lacks the polish to hitup leading targets (which is basically the whole forward group) is never a good combo. If they can get more from the midfield they can challenge for the 8 but I just don't see it at this point.
    Carlton - Another side that has a few elite midfielders and then holes everywhere else. I don't rate their defense, though Jaksch looks a keeper and I think it will be alright against smaller sides but whoever gets Jamison is going to have fun more often than not and I think mismatches can be created. Their forward line is the problem though, Casboult can't kick, Henderson can't stay healthy and Jones can't football, at all and the small guys are yet to prove much of anything. They could potentially finish higher because the midfielders are very good but I think they're only an injury or two in there from being weak there as well. Unfortunately they've basically got 6 midfielders and then all the backups are basically "taggers". Will be interesting to see what they do, they're a team I think needs to take risks to score but doesn't really have the defenders to take risks, sort of like Adelaide last year.
    Collingwood - They've looked terrible and on paper they're just not very good. Cloke is their only KPF and they use him terribly. Reid is just a bonus if he plays at this point. Brown and Frost are solid but not world beaters. They've got some nice small defenders but it's almost a collection of almost goods at this point. They're going to struggle massively to score, they've only got two midfielders who are good ball users. They just don't do anything well at this point and to date Buckley has not proven himself the kind of coach to get more out of talent than he should, in fact he has proven the opposite to date. Will be very interesting to see how they start this season but they just look poor on paper.

    Melbourne - Will be plucky but just lack talent. Quite like their defense, think the forwards will battle and the midfield will battle but they just don't have the class. Should be more competitive though this year. Losing Petracca was a real blow because he would have really benefited from a good season of AFL footy.
    Western Bulldogs - Look better on screen than paper at this point. Their midfield is very young but also talented. They've actually thrown together a pretty decent defensive group but their forwards are terrible at this point until they prove otherwise and their midfield is so young it will have games where it gets pantsed.
    St Kilda - They have Riewoldt. He might win a few games for them. They have very little else unfortunately. Hopefully this is the bottoming out but it doesn't feel like it, they might be down here for a while!

    Premier - Hawthorn - See above.
    Runner Up - Geelong - Sydney just doesn't feel "right" to me, last year I thought we should win the flag at this point, then had a 5 week blip to start the season then got back to that before unfortunately having another week blip at the worst possible time, but this season hasn't started well, just has one of those jinxed feels to it already! Fremantle I think will lose McPharlin and/or Pavlich again in the leadup and just get bullied out as a result. Port will draw Hawthorn and lose again...

    Brownlow - Nathan Fyfe - Just a feel but really this is a crapshoot.
    Coleman - Lance Franklin - Hawkins I think shares more with Clark than he gains from less attention. Hawthorn share it around too much. Pies suck too much. Riewoldt (J) and Walker the top contenders in my eyes.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    Moderator Thumpy's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 Predictions Discussion

    I don't mind Geelong as a smokey this year either. Losing Christensen hurts but you could effectively say they broke even with Clark (probably even ahead given he fills a position of need). Their older players, with the exception of SJ, look as fit as ever.
    Never argue with a fool. They'll drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.

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    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 Predictions Discussion

    Geelong have been really promising in the pre season games so far.

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    FFC CEO Narkee's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 Predictions Discussion

    We have been ok. We still lack the ability to shut teams out in that we get 4-5 goals up and easily concede goals to give the opposition a sniff / momentum. This is because our contested ball is still sub par. If Jimmy and some of our bigger bodies can prevent this then it will go a long way to keeping us in the 8.
    Zach Tuohy my boy for 2017!

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 Predictions Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Narkee View Post
    We have been ok. We still lack the ability to shut teams out in that we get 4-5 goals up and easily concede goals to give the opposition a sniff / momentum. This is because our contested ball is still sub par. If Jimmy and some of our bigger bodies can prevent this then it will go a long way to keeping us in the 8.
    Really your midfield should be pretty damn good. Bartel, Selwood, Kelly, Guthrie, Stokes, SJ, Motlop, Caddy and Hyphen-Smith is a pretty damn good group. Just need McIntosh to stay healthy and at least get close to breakeven in the ruck area. A healthy Motlop and the injection of Cockatoo really helps you on the outside also.

    Mostly though I just like the back 6 a lot and think it's a very solid foundation for a top 4 side and adding a forward of Clarks ability is just gravy.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    FFC CEO Narkee's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 Predictions Discussion

    Yeh good points. It might have been the NAB cup and hence the intensity not there for 100% of the time but, that aside, there were signs of the issues we had last year.
    Zach Tuohy my boy for 2017!

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    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 Predictions Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Narkee View Post
    Yeh good points. It might have been the NAB cup and hence the intensity not there for 100% of the time but, that aside, there were signs of the issues we had last year.
    There were, hard to judge though with Bartel playing a half and SJ just easing into things as well.

    Really though with Selwood, Bartel and Kelly you should have a pretty good contested trio, all are fantastic tacklers and contested ball guys.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

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    FFC Agent of Chaos Big Sledge #32's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 Predictions Discussion

    I feel like the last few years I've been down on Geelong a little, well as much as you can be given their overwhelming talent.

    This year I'm pretty big on their chances. Genuinely fearsome KPF combo, combined with probably my favourite KPD combo in the league in Taylor + Lonergan.

    Bartel returning to his stomping ground fills me with glee as well as he's my favourite non Crow. Ruck is a concern, but not overly so as they have enough guys on their list to piece something together.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Narkee View Post
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    FFC General Manager twarby's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 Predictions Discussion

    I am not that high on Geelong, well I think they'll be around the mark again but don't think they can win the flag, won 6/7 games by single digits last year and felt they finished about 3 spots higher then they deserved in the regular season.
    Clark is a big plus for them and will allow them to match up better on certain teams, although they've always been able to find ways to score on them really.

    They've been pretty leaky though defensively due to their crazy attacking game plan, its only NAB but they've let through 29 shots from 52 inside 50s vs Suns, 23/46 vs Crows and 26/47 vs Blues, that combined % would be rank them 18th last season and considering how piss poor most teams have been in that area offensively so far that is a little concerning, they look elite on D on paper but they really weren't from an efficiency point of view last year. They are going to score on anyone though but they're also going to let through a heap and always keep teams in games.

    I think they're a bit off Hawks, Swans, Port and possibly even Freo, they get 8 games at Simonds which is very nice and balances out the harder draw opponents wise they've been dealt, won't win 3 finals though
    Last edited by twarby; 25th March 2015 at 01:28 PM.

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    FFC Runner Jack Richards's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 Predictions Discussion

    My prediction:

    Malthouse will be sacked by the end of the season

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    FFC General Manager Devo's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 Predictions Discussion

    Premiers - Hawthorn
    Spoon - St Kilda
    Coleman - Roughead
    Brownlow - Fyfe
    Rising Star - Heeney
    #teamANB

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    Re: 2015 Predictions Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Richards View Post
    My prediction:

    Malthouse will be sacked by the end of the season
    Eddie wouldn't do it imo.

    Would make him look bad as he came up with the Malthouse - Buckley deal.

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    FFC Runner Jack Richards's Avatar
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    Re: 2015 Predictions Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by John Smith View Post
    Eddie wouldn't do it imo.

    Would make him look bad as he came up with the Malthouse - Buckley deal.
    He isnt at Collingwood anymore.

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