Important News


User Tag List

Results 1 to 11 of 11

Thread: Fight for the 8

  1. #1
    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Melbourne
    Team
    ADELAIDE
    Posts
    17,809
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    590 Post(s)
    Tagged
    1 Thread(s)

    Fight for the 8

    Pretty quiet on here so figured it would be good to generate some discussion on who everyone thinks will be in the top 8 (even the positioning inside the 8) after round 23.

    As it stands -

    Team % Points
    1 Hawthorn 142.6 60
    2 Sydney 139.1 60
    3 Geelong 113.1 60
    4 Fremantle 129.4 52
    5 Port Adelaide 126.7 48
    6 North Melbourne 114 44
    7 Adelaide 112.4 40
    8 Essendon 105.9 40


    And the teams outside the 8 but still in contention -

    Team % Points
    9 Collingwood 100.9 40
    10 Gold Coast 97.2 40
    11 West Coast 111.8 36
    12 Richmond 104.1 36


    Do you think the current top 8 sides remain or not? Of those inside the 8, do you think they hold their positions or move up/down?


    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    This weekend will really shape things up I think.

    Port v Gold Coast - Already think Gold Coast are cooked but if they lose this then their race is over.

    Essendon v WCE - Huge on here. If Essendon win, you'd say WCE are done. If WCE win, then % could be a massive factor for a spot in the 8 between the likes of Essendon, WCE, Adelaide and even Collingwood.

    Adelaide v Richmond - Adelaide need to win at least one of the next two and rely on percentage or win both (assuming we beat St.Kilda) and get in almost certainly. Adelaide winning finishes off any slight hope Richmond has. Richmond winning keeps that alive and makes that spot Adelaide currently have in the 8 up for grabs.

    Freo v Hawks - Neither fighting for a spot in the 8 but things could change in the top 4 depending on how this goes. If Hawthorn win, they've still got a slight chance of taking the #1 spot away from Sydney if they can finish the season off strongly with some nice wins. Losing means they could be playing an away final (finishing 3rd) if they're unable to beat Geelong the following week. For Freo it all but locks up their 4th spot on the ladder, losing still probably has them finishing 4th but it does leave option the possibility for Port to take it away from them.


    Just had a quick shot with the ladder predictor, not much effort/time put into it but my 8 came up as -

    Sydney
    Hawthorn
    Geelong
    Freo
    Port
    North
    WCE
    Adel
    -----
    Ess
    Collingwood

    from 7th-10th they all finish on the same wins. Could really go so many ways, I tipped WCE to beat Essendon given the form WCE appear to be in, but if that doesn't happen then Essendon enter the 8 and WCE drop out. I've got Adelaide beating Richmond and losing to North which keeps them on par with the other teams going for the final couple of positions. Have Collingwood winning their next two against Brisbane and GWS but losing to Hawthorn and missing out on %.

  2. #2
    Administrator bailz66's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Melbourne
    Team
    NORTH MELBOURNE
    Posts
    10,979
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    417 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Awards FFC Twitter Poster

    Re: Fight for the 8

    I think the big game that defines the 8's structure and how the seaon will pan out will be Adelaide vs North Melbourne next week. I assume Crows win against Richmond and North beats the dogs.

    This will mean that North/Adelaide are playing for a home final. If Crows win its a Crows/North Final in Adelaide. If North win then North secure 6th spot and will likely host Essendon. If Adelaide can hold out for 8th spot that will make the perfect finals draw I think.

    Swans
    Hawks
    Cats
    Freo
    Port
    North
    Essendon
    Adelaide
    ____________
    Pies
    Eagles

  3. #3
    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Melbourne
    Team
    ADELAIDE
    Posts
    17,809
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    590 Post(s)
    Tagged
    1 Thread(s)

    Re: Fight for the 8

    For some reason I thought Sydney was on top even when I posted the ladder...

    Guess it just means they need to win the next couple of weeks to hold that position and by a bit if possible due to how close Sydney are to them on %

  4. #4
    FFC Senior Coach Elvs1's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Brisbane
    Team
    HAWTHORN
    Posts
    3,219
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    279 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: Fight for the 8

    The top 4 will come down to the Haw v Gee game, this weeks Fre v Haw game won't change the top 4.
    Even if Hawthorn lose this weekend, their % means if they beat Geelong the next week they'll finish ahead of them.

    Sydney will either be 1 or 2, Freo 4th, and who ever loses the Haw/Gee game will be 3rd and the winner will be 1 or 2. (Assuming they all win their predicted other games.)

  5. #5
    FFC Football Operations Manager Nothing's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Team
    FREMANTLE
    Posts
    4,868
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    345 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: Fight for the 8

    Quote Originally Posted by bailz66 View Post
    I think the big game that defines the 8's structure and how the seaon will pan out will be Adelaide vs North Melbourne next week. I assume Crows win against Richmond and North beats the dogs.

    This will mean that North/Adelaide are playing for a home final. If Crows win its a Crows/North Final in Adelaide. If North win then North secure 6th spot and will likely host Essendon. If Adelaide can hold out for 8th spot that will make the perfect finals draw I think.

    Swans
    Hawks
    Cats
    Freo
    Port
    North
    Essendon
    Adelaide
    ____________
    Pies
    Eagles
    Agree witht his, except to sya that if Pies can demolish Lions and Giants then they are a chance at taking 8th. Most likely 4th comes down to Port v Freo at Subi, unless Carlton can upset them in Adelaide. Hawks/Cats finsih either way depening on who wins their game.

  6. #6
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Team
    SYDNEY
    Posts
    22,196
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    899 Post(s)
    Tagged
    3 Thread(s)
    Awards FFC Blogger

    Re: Fight for the 8

    Quote Originally Posted by Elvs1 View Post
    The top 4 will come down to the Haw v Gee game, this weeks Fre v Haw game won't change the top 4.
    Even if Hawthorn lose this weekend, their % means if they beat Geelong the next week they'll finish ahead of them.

    Sydney will either be 1 or 2, Freo 4th, and who ever loses the Haw/Gee game will be 3rd and the winner will be 1 or 2. (Assuming they all win their predicted other games.)
    Hawks vs Freo is a massive game for the top 4, imo. Interestingly though it's almost "irrelevant" for the winner, it's the loser that would have massive fallout.

    If Fremantle lose then their top 4 spot becomes tentative, I'd think Port will smash GC on current form, which means Freo probably falls to 5th with a loss. Both Port and Freo should win next week which would make their round 23 matchup possibly the biggest game of the season to date with a top 4 spot on the line. Even if Freo win, Port should at least have a chance to steal 4th off of them in that match but a Freo loss makes it a certain top 4 decider.

    If Hawks lose, then top 2 becomes a lot harder for them. It would make the Geelong game a must win next week as Geelong really should win the other 2 games. Hawks would still control their destiny and next weeks game is certainly the bigger deal, decides top 2 pretty much, though I'm sure the Hawks would love the idea of making that r23 clash with the Pies a dead rubber for them by winning the next two weeks.

    Sydney should finish top 2, Richmond are the only team that should push us and even then it will probably be a dead rubber. Most scenarios have us top 2, if we win out (which we should), we are guaranteed top 2, if Geelong lose, we can lose however many they do.

    Bottom 8 is an unpickable cluster**** for mine. I don't know which Pies team, Crows team, Eagles team, Essendon team or North team will show up each week. I'm happy to say that Gold Coast are done. Richmond are absolutely the form team of the group but they're still Richmond and I don't trust them at all. They also have to beat Sydney to have a chance, could be a dead rubber for Sydney though as mentioned above, so perhaps not as big a deal as it normally would be. Season ends if they don't beat Adelaide obviously.

    Pies are interestingly placed, if they play like the did against Port they can beat anyone, if they play like they did against WCE it's over. Adelaide win this week and they're basically playing North for a home final next week. If North fall out from here, I think it might be time for a new coach because that would be a disaster. Which means basically 2 spots available.

    Realistically it shouldn't change from here. If Essendon and Adelaide take care of business, they're both in and they can both wipe the 2 biggest challenges this week from the race. Pies will be hoping the Hawks win the next two weeks and create a dead rubber so they can throw everything at them and not get the usual resistance.

    Going to be a very interesting finish, Carlton have serious spoiler chances though, they can ruin a few seasons right now!
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

  7. #7
    Super Moderator dylan123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Melbourne
    Team
    ADELAIDE
    Posts
    17,809
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    590 Post(s)
    Tagged
    1 Thread(s)

    Re: Fight for the 8

    RE Hawthorn losing, then I believe Geelong v Hawthorn would pretty much be a dead rubber since if Geelong were to win and finish 2nd they still vs Hawthorn and there won't be a match played at Skilled this year. Unsure whether Geelong's home would be the Dome or MCG but is there much of a difference to the ground they play at?

  8. #8
    Moderator Wogitalia's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Team
    SYDNEY
    Posts
    22,196
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    899 Post(s)
    Tagged
    3 Thread(s)
    Awards FFC Blogger

    Re: Fight for the 8

    Quote Originally Posted by dylan123 View Post
    RE Hawthorn losing, then I believe Geelong v Hawthorn would pretty much be a dead rubber since if Geelong were to win and finish 2nd they still vs Hawthorn and there won't be a match played at Skilled this year. Unsure whether Geelong's home would be the Dome or MCG but is there much of a difference to the ground they play at?
    Would impact ticket allocations for their fans I imagine. Further to that, it would be a big deal either way as there would still be the chance that both get home finals for both teams if Sydney lose. Basically if Geelong win out they can finish top by winning that game and Sydney losing, given percentages atm, Hawthorn could still finish 1st/2nd ahead of Sydney if Sydney lost a game as well (home against Port/Freo/Sydney would be massive advantage). Hawks could still conceivably fall outside the 8 (would take 2 heavy losses and big wins by Freo but it's still "possibe").

    Plus both teams don't like losing to the other so not likely to be no feeling regardless I'd think.

    It probably wouldn't be a terribly meaningful game (lot of if's needed for it to change the 2/3 matchup if Hawks lose this week) but I think it would still very much be live.
    The Truck is driving the Fish Shack in 2018... Christian Petracca is my boy!

  9. #9
    Moderator Thumpy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Adelaide
    Team
    ADELAIDE
    Posts
    5,556
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    157 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: Fight for the 8

    Just ordered tickets to the Hawthorn Geelong game last week so I hope they have something to play for.
    Never argue with a fool. They'll drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.

  10. Likes Wogitalia liked this post
  11. #10
    FFC Senior Assistant Coach Robbo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Perth
    Team
    WEST COAST
    Posts
    2,307
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    103 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Re: Fight for the 8

    Was looking into this yesterday myself (still a bit shocked at how the eagles can still even make finals lol)

    Being an optimistic supporter i ran through the ladder predictor and got the same as Dylan (WCE 7, Adel 8), at one stage i was tinkering with a few 50/50 outcomes and managed to get 7-11 all on 48 points lol.
    First Passenger on-board the Stefan Martin Train!

  12. #11
    FFC Agent of Chaos Big Sledge #32's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Adelaide
    Team
    ADELAIDE
    Posts
    16,550
    Post Thanks / Like
    Mentioned
    579 Post(s)
    Tagged
    1 Thread(s)

    Re: Fight for the 8

    Adelaide really comes down to winning one of the next 2 weeks in order to not make it too hard on ourselves.

    It probably means we enter Sunday in round 23 needing percentage to make the 8, which I feel like we could do.

    This week is crucial though.
    Baltimore Ravens Superbowl XLVII Champions
    Quote Originally Posted by Narkee View Post
    SC only


    #AgentOfChaos

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •